Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Holley, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Line of rain showers with pockets of heavy rain passing from west to east this evening with a marginal risk for flooding.

2) Below average temperatures return late in the weekend, however more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Line of rain showers with pockets of heavy rain passing from west to east this evening with a marginal risk for flooding.

A narrow ribbon of moisture (PWATs of 1.25-1.5") has surged into the region ahead of an inbound cold front late this evening, supporting a a line of rain showers passing across the region. With the leading edge now passing across the Finger Lakes region, there hasn't been any reports of stronger winds or thunder. While hydro concerns remain low at this time, locally heavy rainfall is possible. Main concerns stem from sensitive antecedent conditons in areas of more complex terrain, such as in the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes, and perhaps the Tug Hill region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Below average temperatures return late in the weekend, however more seasonal temperatures will arrive by Tuesday.

A pattern change is expected late this weekend as a deep upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast. A return to well below normal temperatures and the chance for snow showers will begin this Sunday.

A west-northwest flow is expected across the region Sunday. Cold air advection and daytime heating will strengthen low-level lapse rates through the day. An increase in PVA and large scale ascent will move across the region. A mix of rain and snow showers is expected to develop across western NY with a focus of showers along a convergence zone from the Buffalo Metro to the Finger Lakes region.
Showers are also possible across the Saint Lawrence Valley through Sunday afternoon. A secondary cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -12C Monday. Snow showers are possible at times Sunday night through Monday. Little to no accumulation is expected.

A strong upper level ridge will build into the Plains and Mid-West through mid-week before moving into the Great Lakes region late in the week. Day-to-day warming is expected across the region.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Line of rain showers in association of a passing cold front is in the midst of passing the region this evening supporting a mix of VFR to LIFR conditions, due to lowering CIGS and VIS. The leading edge of the showers are to soon enter the KART terminal dropping CIGS and VIS down to MVFR conditions within the hour.

A more prolonged period of IFR and MVFR post cold front this evening and thorugh the overnight time period along with scattered rain showers mixing with and changing to snow.

Winds behind the cold front will veer to northwesterly tonight and into Sunday. Sunday, daytime increased mixing heights will promote gusts into the low to mid 20 knot range by late morning.

Outlook...

Sunday night...A mix of MVFR/IFR with upslope/lake effect rain showers mixing with and changing to snow showers.

Monday...Improvement to VFR with leftover scattered lake effect/upslope snow showers ending.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of rain showers.

Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Southerly winds will continue at 15-20 knots this afternoon with the more significant wave action directed into Canadian waters. A cold front will approach the region this afternoon, showers and embedded thunderstorms will overspread the waters from west to east. Some of these thunderstorms may produce brief high wind gusts and wave action. Special Marine Warnings may need to be issued.

Winds will shift westerly and diminish some behind the front this evening. Elevated winds will continue with higher wave heights turning more onshore, before winds subside to 10 knots or less late.

Cold air deepening across the lakes and an increasing pressure gradient will cause westerly winds to freshen Sunday. Winds will turn northwesterly Sunday night and remain elevated into Monday morning with speeds near 20 knots. This will support a period of small craft headlines on Lake Ontario and possibly Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ043.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 2 PM EDT Monday for LOZ044-045.