Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roosevelt Park, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 154 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

- Diminishing snow early this evening

The area of snow that has persisted over the region through mid afternoon will steadily lift northeast through the remainder of the afternoon. The moisture depth is shown to decrease considerably in the 21z to 00z period with the DGZ becoming unsaturated for a few hours. This could lead to a risk for patches of drizzle/freezing drizzle for a couple of hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to increase slightly into the early evening hours, given the persistent warm and moist air advection ahead of the front. We will need to monitor trends in the event the freezing drizzle becomes widespread, but at this time that does not appear to be the case, so no headlines.

- Arctic air arrives Late Tonight into Tuesday with increasing impacts

The cold front pushes eastward through the region this evening.
Weak lift is noted in the clouds that contain the DGZ after midnight and into Monday. Inversion heights lower to under 5k ft Monday and strong westerly winds are noted well through the inversion. These winds will draw the snow bands well inland, but do tend to lead to many smaller bands. This should act to limit the snowfall accumulations. Also, we may see a few hours of minimal snow as weak ridging ahead of the next shortwave generates some subsidence. This is depicted by several models. Given the shallow nature of the moisture, weak/neutral lift and potential for smaller bands of snow into Monday afternoon, we will hold off on issuing any winter related headlines. Wind chills will lower into the single digits and possibly lower on Monday.

A stronger 700 mb wave drops in from the northwest late Monday afternoon and into Monday night. Inversion heights climb to around 7-8k ft. A moist DGZ is noted with increasing lift seen in it.
The arctic air continues to advect in with 850 mb temperatures dropping to -20 deg C or so which will increase the instability over Lake MI. Thus widespread snow shower/squalls are expected.
Factoring in the wind and dry snow, blowing snow will become an increasing factor. We do see this as an event which could lead to an increased risk for whiteout conditions. The low level convergence 12z Tuesday depicts an increased potential for more significant banding in the I-96 to I-94 corridors. Thus inland locations near these highways such as Lansing and Jackson will likely be impacted as well. The wind chills will be even lower with many locations expected to see subzero values. Model snowfall amounts generally remain under 4 inches Monday night into Tuesday, but that's something which could change depending on how the system evolves.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 641 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Light snow continues to diminish across the region as one short wave moves away. Another wave will arrive after 18z. Inbetween, Mostly MVFR cigs are expected. However, at the start of the period, a couple hours of IFR are possible too.

Light snow showers are expected by mid evening at MKG/GRR as another shot of colder air flows over the lake. These snow showers will eventually spread eastward with a strong west wind. LAN will see snow showers develop after midnight. The I-94 terminals will see lower chances of snow shower activity due to the west wind and limited fetch over the lake.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.