Thursday, October1, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Roosevelt Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 7:27PM Thursday October 1, 2020 6:29 PM EDT (22:29 UTC) Moonrise 6:48PMMoonset 6:15AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Through early evening..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waterspouts likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Friday..North winds around 10 knots backing northwest. Rain showers likely. A slight chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering east after midnight. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering south. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves less than 1 foot.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing east toward daybreak. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering south 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:202010020800;;656789 FZUS53 KGRR 012006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-020800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roosevelt Park, MI
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location: 43.22, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 011929 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 329 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Synopsis/Discussion

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

- Showers with Thunder and small hail this afternoon

- Frost/Freeze tonight and tomorrow night

- Rain chances into next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

-- Showers with Thunder and small hail this afternoon --

Gusty northerly flow continues across the lower peninsula this afternoon. Gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph continue at and behind a cold front that swings through the area this afternoon and through the first half of the evening.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and early evening. There continues to be a fair amount instability through the mid levels, though the best forcing continues to move eastward. As the front passes, the dry cold air will filter in and will preclude any more convective development.

The cold mid levels with a low freezing level will allow for hail to be possible out of any convective shower. However most hail will be smaller then a half an inch with up to dime size hail possible in any thunderstorms.

-- Frost/Freeze possible tonight and tomorrow night --

The cold front will swing through the region tonight into tomorrow morning. The strong northerly flow will move with it and winds will slacken as the night continues. Anomalous cold air will filter in behind the front tonight. So given the dry cold flow, a decoupling air mass and clearing skies, frost is likely tonight into tomorrow morning.

The only caveat is if clouds linger or if the marine layer shifts eastward. However given the land/lake boundary layer, and that the winds will decouple, the inland counties will remain clear and temperatures will drop to the mid to low 30s. This will allow for frost formation across central Michigan tonight into Friday morning.

The cold air mass will remain over the region into Saturday with Max temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Given these cold temperatures and weak flow, another round of frost/freeze will be possible Friday night into Saturday morning.

-- Rain chances into next week --

The long wave trough that is dominating our current weather pattern will continue into next week. The long wave trough will have a good mid level moisture with a decent short wave that will continue to deepens as it brings another frontal system and a good chance for scattered showers Saturday afternoon and overnight into Sunday morning.

The cloudy skies will slowly clear a weak ridge builds over the region into Monday. However this will not last long as another weather system swings through Tuesday and Wednesday.

As this pattern is once again following over a semipermanent high situated over the southwest US there is good confidence in its timing and position. The region finally begins to dry out late next week a the ridge shifts eastward bringing warmer temperatures with it.


AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1201 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to move through southwest Michigan today. A larger cluster of showers has begun to move through Muskegon with isolated thunderstorms affecting all TAF sites this afternoon. Expect MVFR with brief IFR cigs and vsbys in these showers and storms. Have adjusted the periods of showers through 21Z. Expect these to wane afterward.

The low freezing level is allowing for hail to be present in any storms. There will be moderate mixed icing in the clouds above 5000 ft to about 12000 ft.

Tonight winds turn north so skies will clear near and east of US-131. However near the lake shore scattered showers and low clouds will continue.

MARINE. Issued at 1251 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Strong northerly flow will continue today. With the showers and storms moving through this afternoon there remains a chance for waterspouts until the deep instability goes away midday Friday. The cold air remaining over the region through tomorrow and 15 to 25 kt winds continuing into tomorrow the Small Craft Advisory will continue until mid morning Friday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Ceru DISCUSSION . Ceru AVIATION . Ceru MARINE . Ceru


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 1 mi30 min N 12 G 16 52°F 1016.7 hPa (+1.7)44°F
45161 2 mi50 min 19 G 23 54°F 64°F4 ft1015.5 hPa
45029 23 mi30 min NNW 21 G 27 55°F 64°F5 ft1015.7 hPa (+1.0)46°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi60 min NW 24 G 25 55°F 61°F1014.6 hPa47°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi60 min N 7 G 13 52°F 39°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI6 mi35 minNNW 13 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F43°F67%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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W7SW113N5S4N6NW6NW14
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1 day agoW10W9
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W7SW10SW9SW11S9
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2 days agoW8W5W8NW7W9
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G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.