Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Roosevelt Park, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:03AMSunset 5:11PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:51 AM EST (15:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday afternoon...
Early this morning..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering west late in the day. Rain showers. Areas of fog. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Rain showers with snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Freezing spray. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ847 Expires:201912092100;;079811 FZUS53 KGRR 090905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-092100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roosevelt Park, MI
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location: 43.22, -86.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 091158 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 658 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

-Mild with rain, drizzle, areas of fog today

-Drizzle changing to areas of light snow late tonight

-Much colder Tuesday and Wednesday; lake effect snow showers but only minor accumulations

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

The primary fcst challenge is the extent of any travel impacts related to the incoming cold snap. The lake effect potential with this system has been looking less impressive with each model run and snow amounts for most areas may very well be under one inch.

The problem is the dry air and subsidence associated with the large 1040 mb sfc high which builds in from the west. Inversion heights are only around 4K ft in the cold air on Tuesday and Wednesday which should really hold down amounts. So despite delta T's of 20C or more, this does not look like a big lake effect event for sw Lwr MI.

The other question is whether or not we develop slick spots on the roads by the Tuesday morning commute from freezing of residual moisture on the roads - even in the absence of accumulating snow. This is not a sure thing either since the bulk of the rain with this system falls this morning and generally only light amounts of mainly drizzle occur this afternoon and tonight.

As such it's questionable if there will even be much standing water/moisture on the road to freeze when sfc temps fall below freezing late tonight. Also with temps approaching 50 today, the ground and roads may hold some warmth for a time beyond the big temperature plunge late tonight.

The mid week cold air does not stick around very long and guidance has highs above freezing returning by Friday and continuing into next weekend. No big systems are foreseen in the next 7 days although there are hints of a potentially impactful system a week from Tuesday.

Also of note, in the near term, sfc dew points at or above 40 moving over the snowpack north of I-96 will result in areas of fog today which could be locally dense.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 657 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Widespread IFR or lower conditions in rain/drizzle will impact the area today as low pressure passes through. Conditions improving to mainly MVFR tonight after the low departs but winds increasing out of the northwest to 15-25 kts. Scattered lake effect show showers developing later tonight and can't rule out some brief IFR vsbys, but left that low threat out of the TAFs for now.

MARINE. Issued at 321 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Winds and waves will increase substantially tonight as the Arctic air pours in on northwest winds. Winds could flirt with gales for a time. Small craft advisories will be issued, and we could also need another lakeshore flood advisory south of Muskegon. Will take a closer look at that today.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . Meade DISCUSSION . Meade AVIATION . Meade MARINE . Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 1 mi31 min WSW 14 G 15 43°F 999.4 hPa42°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi51 min SSW 12 G 13 43°F 39°F998.7 hPa (-1.9)43°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 50 mi57 min E 2.9 G 4.1 40°F 39°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI6 mi56 minSSW 121.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist47°F44°F90%999 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW14N15
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NW8NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5E5CalmSE4E4SE3SE7SE7S7SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.