Wolcott, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wolcott, NY

June 20, 2024 2:54 PM EDT (18:54 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 8:52 PM
Moonrise 7:08 PM   Moonset 2:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202406201515;;345113 Fzus51 Kbuf 201041 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 641 am edt Thu jun 20 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-201515- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 641 am edt Thu jun 20 2024

Today - Southwest winds less than 10 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely this morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms this afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Friday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Saturday - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Monday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
the water temperature off rochester is 59 degrees.

LOZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wolcott, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 201839 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 239 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Warm and humid conditions continue through most of the weekend, but not as warm as today. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will also continue through Monday. Cooler temperatures return to the region late Sunday and Monday behind a passing cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
The earlier remnant MCV is mostly out of the North Country as of early this afternoon. A spoke of energy extending southwest from the MCV has allowed some showers/storms to develop over the Finger Lakes, just outside of the BUF forecast area. Otherwise mainly clear across the area as of early this afternoon, especially closer to the lakes. Some fair weather cumulus is developing inland from the lakes.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon inland from the lakes as instability increases. The best chance for showers/storms early on will be along outflow and lake breeze boundaries that develop over the western Southern Tier. Expected slower motion and high PWats of around 1.75 inches will result in some heavier downpours within slower moving storms. This may cause a few areas of poor drainage flooding and if rain become heavy enough some flash flooding can't be ruled out, especially for areas of the Southern Tier where heavy rain has already occurred the past few days. Another MCV just north of Toronto will track east, just north of Lake Ontario this afternoon into the evening. As this MCV tracks east there is the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop south of Lake Ontario later in the afternoon as a spoke or two of energy tracks into the area. Some shadowing from the lakes will be possible reducing some of the instability available for the potential for storms, but further inland from the lakes where instability will increase showers and storms will be more likely.
The Storm Prediction Center has a 'Marginal Risk' for severe thunderstorms south of Lake Ontario and a 'Slight Risk' for severe thunderstorms northeast of Lake Ontario. The 'Slight Risk' are is primarily for the first MCV going through, but there will also be a higher severe potential later on with the 2nd MCV tracking nearby.
WPC has a 'Marginal Risk' for excessive rainfall due to the potential for some of the heavier downpours that may occur within thunderstorms that develop.

Temperatures this afternoon will remain well above normal with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Combined with the moist atmosphere, heat index values in the mid to upper 90s can be expected for most of the area, with a few spots reaching around 100. Overall though today should be a degree or two cooler than the past few days as temperatures aloft are a bit cooler with the ridge over the region nudging south and de-amplifying some. This is occuring as a trough is approaching from the northwest and the interaction between that and the ridge is causing the flow to go from more of a ridge to zonal.

Tonight, a slow moving weak frontal boundary will slowly drop southeast into the area, resulting in continued potential for showers and thunderstorms. The warm and humid airmass will continue to support thunderstorms, with the frontal boundary continuing to weaken, providing only minimal relief, mainly north of where it stalls. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the area.

Friday, showers and thunderstorms will continue with the frontal boundary stalled over the area from west to east. A few showers and storms in the morning should increase in coverage some as daytime heating increases instability. Guidance is a bit split on coverage of showers and how heavy some of the showers will get, but the best coverage for showers will once again be in the afternoon with the daytime heating, that is generally agreed on among guidance. Friday afternoon highs in the low to upper 80s will be coolest to warmest from the north to the south with the frontal boundary draped west to east over the area.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday night, the stalled front across the area will begin to slowly push north as a warm front late in the night and into the early Saturday morning. Can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm but for the most part there should be a break in precipitation Friday night.

Most models show a weak shortwave passing by to the north which would cause the front to meander a bit during the day Saturday. The North Country should stay on the cool side of the boundary. The shortwave is likely to generate some showers with its passage, but there's a lower risk of thunderstorms in the North Country. For the Western NY, a lot depends on the timing of the shortwave with lower chances for showers and thunderstorms if it passes in the morning and greater chances if it's in the afternoon. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s near the Pennsylvania border to the upper 70s in the North Country.

Strengthening low pressure tracking across the central Great Lakes will lift the front back to the north, putting the entire forecast area in the warm sector. The warm and moist air mass will support small chances for showers and thunderstorms across Western NY with showers and storms likely across the North Country which will be closer to the boundary and any disturbances that track along it.

A 995mb surface low and robust shortwave tracking to our north will result in a windy day on Sunday with 850mb winds increasing to about 45 knots. This will push a strong cold front across the area which is likely to produce some thunderstorms with its passage. There will be ample wind shear in place to support organized convection with damaging winds possible. Timing will be key, with model consensus bringing the front through slightly earlier than ideal to produce storms in far Western NY, with greater risks for storms closer to Central NY. But this could change in future model runs. Even without convection it will be windy across the Niagara Frontier where wind gusts of 45 mph can be expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A cold front will slide east of our area Sunday night, with lingering showers and thunderstorms tapering off from west to east.
This will be followed by a potent shortwave which will dig across northern New England on Monday. This will bring increasing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across the North Country with low chances elsewhere which will be further from the disturbance. It will also be notably cooler and less humid with highs on Monday only in the 70s.

High pressure will move across the region Monday night and Tuesday, resulting in rain free and cooler weather. Another shortwave will pass by well to the north Tuesday with an associated cold front moving across the area Tuesday night or Wednesday. This will bring warmer weather ahead of the cold front with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. The cold front will then usher in cooler weather for Thursday. By Thursday highs should only be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Did hedge below model guidance for high temps given the cool air mass and recent warm weather included in bias correction.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly VFR at area terminals today. Areal coverage of showers and storms expected to increase later this afternoon, with a risk of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Tonight...VFR conditions outside of showers and storms. Once again there will be the potential for some fog in the river valleys of the S. Tier.

Friday, showers and thunderstorm potential remains across much of the area, especially inland form the lakes and during the afternoon hours. Mainly VFR conditions except in showers/storms that may cause reductions to VSBYs at times.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.

Monday...Mainly VFR, but a chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms inland from the lakes.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected.

MARINE
A generally quiet period is expected for the lower Great Lakes through the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend as a large upper-level ridge remains across the eastern CONUS, resulting in a lighter surface flow. Only concern will be in the afternoon and early evening hours as showers and thunderstorms could produce briefly higher wind gusts and waves.

Increasing winds on Sunday will bring the next potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions for both lakes.

CLIMATE
The heat will continue today. Below are record high temperatures for our three main climate sites:

Buffalo

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 20
92/1995............73/2012


Rochester

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 20
95/1953............72/1923


Watertown

Date
Record Maximum (F)...Record warm Minimum (F)...

June 20
90/1971............71/2012

Temperature records for Buffalo and Rochester date back to 1871.
Temperature records for Watertown date back to 1949.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>008- 010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 23 mi55 minWNW 4.1G5.1 77°F 30.2467°F
45215 24 mi59 min 70°F 69°F2 ft
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 38 mi55 minWSW 5.8G7.8 69°F 67°F2 ft30.28
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 41 mi45 minW 3.9G5.8 67°F 64°F30.2966°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 41 mi55 minN 4.1G4.1 73°F 30.32
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 42 mi55 min 74°F


Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KSDC WILLIAMSONSODUS,NY 15 sm19 mincalm10 smClear88°F61°F40%30.29
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Wind History graph: FZY
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Montague, NY,




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