Thursday, July16, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wolcott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:45PM Thursday July 16, 2020 9:36 AM EDT (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 1:15AMMoonset 4:12PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ044 Expires:202007160915;;919653 Fzus51 Kbuf 160544 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 144 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-160915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 144 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 76 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wolcott, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 43.23, -76.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 161035 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 635 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. A series of weak fronts will support scattered strong to severe thunderstorms from midday today into this evening. Mid summer heat and humidity can then be expected for Friday through at least the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. . Active severe weather potential this afternoon and evening .

Quiet early today as high pressure centered near mouth of St. Lawrence River in Quebec keeps dry airmass in place. Weak elevated instability and increasing sw low-level jet may support isold showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in the next couple hours over western Southern Tier. Very low chance.

Well defined MCV spinning eastward over northeast Indiana tracks across western NY this afternoon and to north of the North Country this evening. This feature will push a series of weak fronts across our region today. Looking likely that we'll see scattered showers with isolated thunder later this morning as initial wave of showers over central Great Lakes arrives. This activity will then diminish by midday while lifting to north of Lake Ontario. However, looking more likely that at least isolated embedded storms could still occur from central Lake Ontario toward North Country as this lifts north of Lake Ontario.

Best opportunity for widespread thunderstorms with scattered strong to severe storms still on track in wake of this initial activity, likely in time range from mid afternoon into early this evening. Strong winds aloft tied to the MCV results in effective shear over 40 kts which is strong for middle of summer with low-level shear 25- 30+kts also strong. The shear combined with seasonable instability (highs in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid 60s) with MLCAPES 1000-1500j/kg and DCAPES to around 1000j/kg sets the stage for storms with damaging winds the primary threat, but not the only threat. Within slight risk over WNY, SPC probs have WNY in a 5 pct risk for tornado (increased from ydy) which is pretty rare for our severe weather season. Looking at parameters specific to forecasting tornado potential (STP, LCL, effective helicity) we are looking to be on the high end for past tornado days in WNY. Continue to mention this risk in the HWO. It certainly looks justified. Best potential will be mid to late afternoon as storms will initially be discrete with possible supercells. Eventually though given the strong 0-1km shear and the approaching front, storms should become linear as they move east toward Genesee valley and perhaps western Finger Lakes/SE Lake Ontario region with gusty to damaging winds the prime threat. Finally, torrential downpours will be likely in any storm as PWATS surge to over 2 inches. Storms will be moving, so would likely need to have training storms for larger flooding risk.

Expect clusters of diminishing thunderstorms to rumble toward the North County early in the evening while diminsihing over WNY and Genesee valley. Showers will diminish further overnight as cool and moist air works in behind the front. Based on upstream trends behind the low this morning, could see low stratus and fog later tonight with dense fog possible in typically prone valleys of the Southern Tier. Lows tonight in the mid 60s to around 70F.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will slowly press from west to east across the forecast area on Friday, pushing east of the region by mid afternoon. This will allow any leftover showers (and storms east of Lake Ontario) to taper off in a similar fashion. Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure will then be the dominate features for Friday night through Saturday night providing dry weather. Otherwise, high temperatures on Friday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s. Warm advection will be on the increase by Saturday. This will boost highs into the mid and upper 80s across much of the forecast area, with the typically warmer locales across the Genesee Valley and lake plains south of Lake Ontario likely reaching the lower 90s. Humidity levels will remain in check, which should preclude the need for any heat related headlines, as apparent temperatures should fail to reach 95F anywhere in our forecast area.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sunday will be the warmest day of the period, along with a marked increase in humidity levels as well. The first half of the day should remain dry, before the chance for a few showers and storms increases from northwest to southeast across the area later in the afternoon into the evening well ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary. However, the main story will be the heat and increased humidity for the second half of the weekend. 850Ts in the vicinity of +20C will allow high temperatures to surge into low to mid 90s across much of the lower terrain south of Lake Ontario, with upper 80s elsewhere. The combination of these temps and dew points rising into the upper 60s to low 70s will possibly necessitate the need for heat headlines across the lake plains, Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region.

A better chance for showers and storms comes Sunday night as a weak cold front crosses the region. Our area will then become sandwiched in between strong upper level ridging to the south and broad upper level troughing across the upper Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. Mid level flow will strengthen in response to this regime, however there are no pronounced disturbances set to move through the upper flow during this time. This should translate to a good deal of dry time, however the combination of continued heat and humidity along with enhanced upper flow may be enough to produce a few showers or storms from time to time, especially during the afternoon and early evening. A sharper upper trough and associated surface wave will approach the area Wednesday, bringing a better chance for some showers and storms as we approach mid week. Otherwise as mentioned, the heat and humidity will stick around through the first half of next week. However, it will not be nearly as warm as Sunday, with highs generally ranging from the lower to mid 80s Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. High pressure will remain in control across the region through mid morning. Cannot rule out isold shower at JHW though upstream radar in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania is currently sparse. Expect showers with embedded thunder to arrive over WNY late this morning for an hour or two into the early afternoon while lifting across Lake Ontario and into Canada. Then, showers and thunderstorms will become rather widespread during the afternoon and evening as upper level disturbance moves in from the central Great Lakes. Some of the storms are expected to be strong to severe this afternoon. Greatest chance of wind gusts over 40 kts will be over western NY including IAG, BUF and JHW.

Outlook .

Tonight . VFR with showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening. IFR to MVFR overnight in low stratus and patchy fog, especially valleys of Southern Tier. Friday . Becoming VFR. A chance of showers in the morning. Saturday . VFR. Sunday and Monday . Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE. Winds will veer to the south across the region today, and while winds will freshen a bit in some areas, the main concern will be the likelihood for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The storms will have an elevated risk of producing strong wind gusts.

A brief period of stronger winds are expected tonight. Though southerly wind direction will be mainly offshore, wind speeds and waves support Small Craft Advisory over nearshore waters of far eastern Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ045.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . JLA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA/JM/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 23 mi67 min SSE 14 G 21
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 38 mi97 min SSE 19 G 23 74°F 73°F4 ft1018.5 hPa (+0.1)
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 41 mi27 min SSE 14 G 18 75°F 73°F1017.7 hPa71°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 41 mi37 min S 15 G 22 79°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last
24hr
W6
NW6
NW6
N5
N6
NE7
N7
NE7
NE8
NE6
E5
E3
G6
E3
G7
SE7
SE8
G12
SE9
G12
SE9
SE9
G12
SE12
G16
SE11
G17
SE12
G17
SE14
G18
SE14
G20
SE16
G23
1 day
ago
W7
W12
G15
W12
G16
W12
G16
W12
W11
W12
W10
G13
W12
G15
W11
W7
G10
W6
G9
S1
SE3
SE1
SE4
S6
SE5
S5
S7
S6
S7
SE4
W1
2 days
ago
W12
G16
W15
W16
W17
G21
W15
W15
W14
G17
W14
G17
W15
W14
W12
W13
W13
W13
W12
NW9
NW9
W8
S4
SW4
NW5
W5
G8
NW9
NW7

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY25 mi43 minSSE 810.00 miFair77°F64°F66%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
Last 24hrCalm4--5N4NE4N5N55NE5NE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalm3SE3SE4SE3SE45SE6S8
1 day ago6NW7W11W12NW7
G15
NW10NW10NW7NW8NW5W5CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW9W11W8W12NW13W10NW9
G17
NW9W9W10W8NW4W4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW6W6

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (9,2,3,4)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.