Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wolcott, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 5:01PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:17 PM EST (02:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202101182215;;115432 Fzus51 Kbuf 181729 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1229 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-182215- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1229 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
This afternoon..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Friday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 38 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wolcott, NY
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location: 43.23, -76.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190038 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 738 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold westerly flow will maintain widespread accumulating lake effect snow showers over the western counties through Tuesday . with significant snow accumulations for parts of the Western Southern Tier and as far north as southern portions of Northern Erie county (eg. Lackawanna, West Seneca, Elma). Significant lake enhanced snows are then expected to reignite east of Lake Ontario Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. A trough axis just south of Lake Ontario is providing a focus for some lake enhanced snows this evening. This will produce a an inch or two of snow in some areas, resulting in some slick travel even though amounts will be sub- advisory.

Otherwise, the winter weather advisory was upgraded to a lake effect snow warning for Northern Erie County, but the heavy snow is only expected to make it as far north as Lackawanna, West Seneca, Elma and Marilla (Buffalo Southtowns) with much lesser amounts in the city of Buffalo and the rest of the northern third of Erie County. Didn't go quite as far north with the band as the Canadian Regional GEM, but weighted this model heavily in the model blend given its good track record handling convergence bands across Lake Erie. Other high res guidance tended to be south with the band.

Also hoisted Lake Effect Snow Warning for eastern Lake Ontario region from mid morning Tuesday through Tuesday night. Heaviest snow here will be on the central and northern Tug Hill Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Stronger west-southwest band off Lake Ontario becomes more transient later Tuesday night as it sweeps southward across more of Oswego county.

For later consideration: ongoing lake effect snow warnings from Southern Erie and Wyoming county into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties will likely need extending through Tuesday/Tuesday night and possibly even into Wednesday before the lake effect weakens. Will let later shifts look at specifics on extension or whether winter weather advisories will work for the snow beyond Tuesday.

As for the details, 00z BUF sounding showed inversion to 700mb or around 10kft with good deal of DGZ in that lake effect convective layer. Expect lake effect over western Southern Tier into southern Erie county to refocus and increase farther north tonight, along the border of Northern Erie and Southern Erie zones (eg. Orchard Park, Lackawanna, Blasdell, West Seneca, Elma, Marilla, East Aurora) late this evening through late tonight in response to backing winds with sfc wave crossing the Great Lakes. Snow rates 1-2"/hr in this narrow heavier band likely. Peak intensity expected between 10 PM and 4 AM. Snow totals by Tuesday morning where this band persists later tonight of 6-8 inches are expected with isolated 10 inch amounts possible. Heavier snow band will also extend into far northwest Wyoming (already in the warning) and southwest Genesee county, so placed Genesee into advisory even though majority of snow falls south of Corfu vcnty of Darien Lakes State Park.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, Additional snow accums of 3-5 inches will be possible in the Buffalo Southtowns on Tuesday with slightly lower amounts anticipated for Genesee and the remainder of nrn Erie county. This will likely result in slick travel throughout much of the Niagara Frontier on Tuesday even where heaviest lake effect snow does not occur tonight. Elsewhere across Wrn NY, snow showers will accumulate an inch or two with potential for a bit of enhanced snow as well along Lake Ontario shoreline closer to the sfc low crossing southern Ontario. Westerly winds gusting over 25 mph with temps in the upper 20s to around 30 could also result in blowing snow with reduced visibility in open areas.

Into Tuesday night over WNY, west to northwest flow will continue to support lake effect snows especially into the western Southern Tier. Locally heavy snow possible as even colder air builds across the lower Great Lakes (H85 temps -15c) and there is still lingering deeper moisture behind the sfc low pressure wave.

Turning attention to eastern Lake Ontario region, after a period of more widespread light snow later Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon, expect lake enhanced snows to redevelop east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday and Tuesday night. With a cap rising to at least 10k ft and strong west-southwest convergent flow pointed at central and northern Tug Hill region, amounts over a foot look likely in those areas from late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Winds becoming more west- northwest later Tuesday night will eventually make this band more transient. Away from the Tug Hill, expect snow totals in the 3-6 inch range. West winds gusting over 30 mph and temps in the 20s will result in better chance of blowing snow and reduced visibility in open areas east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lower temps will also allow even the lower elevations to see accumulating snow unlike what occurred during the last heavy lake enhanced snow event this past weekend.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Potent upstream shortwave trough swings through the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday morning. With its passage, veering wind flow to the northwest will shove lake snows off both lakes to the south. Deep synoptic moisture to start the period will then gradually deplete as the shortwave trough advances east with lake snows weakening by Wednesday afternoon. With the moving bands and shorter fetch of the lakes, accumulations will likely be limited to an inch or two, possibly a bit more near the southeast end of Lake Ontario where 3 to 4 inches will be possible. By late Wednesday afternoon, falling equilibrium levels and the incoming surface ridge will further suppress snowfall accumulations. Winds will also be in the process of backing to the west by Wednesday evening and then to the southwest Wednesday night. Although weak, there may be just enough support left to produce some minor accumulations as a lake snow band lifts north into and across the Buffalo Metro area.

Wednesday night, any remaining lake snows will end as H850T warm and inversion heights fall. Later on, a warm front will then track northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, which might produce some minor accumulations as we head into Thursday.

Thursday, warm front exits and the sfc low over Ontario tracks east and then southeast towards the Lower Lakes during the day. Still some timing issues with the cold front. GFS has an earlier arrival crossing the Lower Lakes Thursday evening or night time frame. ECMWF is much later with it tracking through Friday during the day. Either way, in its wake winds will veers more westerly and cooling aloft takes place with lake effect snows firing up again, especially east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. After the cold frontal passage expect a return of lake enhanced and then lake effect snow. This snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and off through Saturday as 850 hPa temperatures drop from around -9C Friday morning to around -15C by Saturday morning. Late Friday into Friday night, a shortwave trough will cross the area, bringing additional chances for snow showers across most of the region with its passage, in addition to any areas of lake effect snow. Lake snows will largely end through the day Saturday as a surface ridge approaches the region. Lake snows may tea kettle over Lake Ontario within shallow moisture for Sunday morning. Another system will bring chance of light snow by next Monday, though stronger jet aloft and zonal flow may keep bulk of snow over the eastern Ohio valley and toward Mid Atlantic States.

During this period daytime temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal, except leading off on Friday when temperatures will be near to slightly above normal as the coldest air will lag the sfc cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. MVFR to IFR conditions in lake effect snow showers which will be across the bulk of western New York tonight. A cluster of snow showers will move across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester this evening. Then a convergence band off Lake Erie will produce locally heavy snow which will push northward near KBUF later tonight before weakening and pushing south of the terminal on Tuesday Meanwhile. generally snow free conditions will accompany mainly MVFR cigs across the North Country (KART).

Outside of lake snows expect mainly MVFR flight conditions tonight due to low cigs, with a mix of MVFR/VFR flight conditions Tuesday as cloud bases lift slightly.

Outlook .

Tuesday night through Friday . MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers east of both lakes. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Scattered snow showers.

MARINE. Freshening west to southwest winds on Lake Erie tonight will generate high enough waves to warrant a small craft advisory that will extend into the middle of the week Meanwhile. winds will diminish tonight on Lake Ontario.

Winds will strengthen throughout the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday with the fresh to strong westerlies remaining intact through at least Tuesday night. This will maintain the aforementioned SCA for Lake Erie and should prompt the issuance of additional headlines for the Lake Ontario nearshore waters as the time frame nears.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ011. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . JLA/SW/Thomas AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/JLA/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 23 mi47 min NNW 7 G 8.9 31°F 1012.1 hPa22°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 41 mi17 min WSW 6 G 8.9 32°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 42 mi47 min 32°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY25 mi23 minN 09.00 miMostly Cloudy27°F24°F89%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW4N3CalmNW6NW4NW3NW5NW5NW3W5W7W7W7NW9NW8NW14W12NW7W6CalmS3CalmCalm
1 day agoW16
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2 days ago55
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SE64SE4SE5CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW5W10W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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