Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wolcott, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 5:05PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 6:12 PM EST (23:12 UTC) Moonrise 5:51AMMoonset 3:00PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202001221615;;338592 Fzus51 Kbuf 221145 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 645 Am Est Wed Jan 22 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221615- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 645 Am Est Wed Jan 22 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Snow and rain showers Friday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Snow and rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely during the day, then snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 36 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wolcott, NY
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location: 43.23, -76.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 222054 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 354 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry weather and quiescent conditions lasting through Friday as high pressure builds into the east coast. With the high, a gradual increase to above normal temperatures are expected. Low pressure will slowly pass through from the Ohio Valley to the coast of New England this weekend. As this system passes by it will initially bring mixed precipitation on Saturday, while possibly changing over to accumulating wet snow on Saturday evening through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. A high pressure center to our southeast will continue to push eastward through the evening, allowing for the breezy southwest winds to gradually shift southerly and diminish throughout the overnight hours. Depending on how calm the winds can get tonight will determine the low temperature tonight. Assuming calm winds, places inland could see lows in the teens, while along the lake shore lows will be in the 20s.

Expect similar conditions Thursday as the high pressure remains overhead. Major differences between today and Thursday will be calmer winds and warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday should reach low 40s throughout much of the area, while the area to the east of Lake Ontario can anticipate upper 30s for highs.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Thursday night and Friday an initial area of high pressure draped along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coastlines will ever so slowly drift eastward . while a second and stronger surface ridge near James Bay builds east-southeastward to the Canadian Maritimes. Meanwhile . a closed upper level low and its attendant surface low will track from the lower Missouri Valley to Illinois and Indiana. While this latter system will circulate plenty of mid and high cloud cover across our region during this time frame . lingering ridging and drier air at the lower levels will keep the vast majority of our area dry . with just a low chance of rain reaching far south- western New York by sunset on Friday Otherwise. lows ranging from the upper teens across the North Country to the mid/upper 20s near Lake Erie Thursday night will be followed by highs in the lower to mid 40s on Friday as broad warm air advection continues across our region. For our climatologically coldest point of the year . such high temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

After that . the aforementioned vertically stacked low will lift northeastward to Lower Michigan and Lake Erie Friday night and Saturday . while gradually weakening as its energy transfers to a developing secondary coastal low along or the Mid-Atlantic coastline. The secondary coastal low will then continue to deepen as it moves northeastward along (and then off) the New England coastline Sunday and Sunday night . while lingering deep cyclonic flow across our region gradually gives way to surface-based ridging building eastward from the Upper Great Lakes.

Ahead of the initial surface low and its parent upper level low . a feed of deepening Atlantic moisture and increasing synoptic-scale forcing will overspread the region from southwest to northeast Friday night and Saturday . with the lift being further augmented by a passing 40-50 knot low level jet . and a strongly diffluent flow aloft. This will result in precipitation chances ramping up in a similar manner . with the strong forcing and deep moisture allowing for precipitation to become fairly widespread from the western Finger Lakes westward Friday night . then across the remainder of the area on Saturday. This 24-hour period will also feature a rough 6-12 hour window where the heaviest precipitation from this event will fall . with this tied closely to the passage of the above mentioned low level jet. Saturday night and Sunday the deep moist cyclonic flow on the backside of the strengthening coastal system will then maintain fairly widespread (albeit lighter) precipitation areawide . which remains covered in the forecast by a mix of high likely to categorical PoPs. The steadier precipitation will then become much more scattered late Sunday and Sunday night as the deeper synoptic moisture gets stripped away . and the aforementioned surface ridge builds into our region.

With regard to ptype . in general the models have trended toward a somewhat more northerly track and longer persistence of the initial primary low Friday night and Saturday . which in turn results in warmer air aloft persisting longer across our region . with some guidance now suggesting that the latter could even persist through most of Saturday afternoon across our far eastern zones Meanwhile. boundary layer temps still appear poised to fall into the 20s east of Lake Ontario and the lower-mid 30s elsewhere Friday night . before potentially climbing back into the mid and upper 30s again during the day Saturday. Should all this actually come to fruition . we could see the development of a complicated wintry mix (with primarily rain across the lake plains of far western New York) Friday night and early Saturday . followed by a transition back to more of a general rain/snow mix during the rest of Saturday as boundary layer temps warm again . and the layer of warm air aloft is gradually eliminated All the above said. notable model differences still persist with respect to how thermal profiles will evolve across our region Friday night and Saturday . and with both this and the 5th/6th period nature of this time frame in mind . for now have elected to keep a simpler and more general rain/snow mix in the forecast through the day Saturday.

After Saturday . the precipitation should tend to be more in the way of wet snow through the remainder of the event . though marginal thermal profiles may still be supportive of some rain temporarily mixing back in again across the lower elevations during the day Sunday.

To summarize . as of this point it appears quite possible that this system could bring a round of wintry mixed precipitation . and/or a notable water- laden snowfall to portions of our region from Friday night through Sunday . with the potential for these heavily dependent on the eventual track/strength of the low and its resultant influence on thermal profiles across our region . all of which still remains at least somewhat uncertain as of this writing. With this in mind . will continue to advertise both of these possibilities within our Hazardous Weather Outlook.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Following the passage of the weekend system . the aforementioned ridge will then build directly across our region and bring about a return to mainly dry weather for this period . though cannot completely rule out a few snow and rain showers through Tuesday due to the combination of lingering upsloping and the passage of another shortwave Otherwise. temperatures will remain a bit above late January normals . and will probably stay that way through at least the end of the month with the GFS/GEM/ECMWF remaining in good agreement on keeping any notable cold air bottled up well to our north over northern Canada.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The lake induced clouds have moved out of the WNY TAF sites making conditions VFR, while KART is still in MVFR conditions due to the lingering lower clouds. The lake clouds should push north out of KART early this afternoon increasing CIGS to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the evening through Thursday. Breezy southwest winds should subside throughout the afternoon hours today.

Outlook . Friday . VFR conditions. Saturday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible with rain and wet snow. Saturday night through Monday . MVFR/IFR conditions possible due to snow.

MARINE. Surface high pressure to our southeast will push eastward through the remainder of this afternoon. Breezy southwest winds will subside throughout the afternoon into this evening allowing for minimal waves.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . EAJ NEAR TERM . EAJ SHORT TERM . JJR LONG TERM . JJR AVIATION . EAJ MARINE . EAJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 23 mi60 min S 4.1 G 8.9 32°F 1027.3 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 41 mi72 min SSW 1 G 1 34°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 42 mi60 min 31°F 1026.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY25 mi18 minSE 410.00 miFair30°F15°F54%1027.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11SW9W9SW8S5SW8S7S4S4S5S4S7SW8S9S7S6S4S6S5S53SE3SE3SE4
1 day agoSW5SW7SW8SW8W8SW6NW8NW5NW5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S4S3S5S5S4S7S7SW7
2 days agoNW9N9NW9NW7
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N9N8N5E43NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW6W8W8W6W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.