Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Muskegon Heights, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 6:33PM Saturday February 27, 2021 7:29 AM EST (12:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:04PMMoonset 7:59AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ847 Grand Haven To Whitehall Mi- 405 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Early this morning..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Snow likely and a slight chance of drizzle. Patchy fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Patchy fog until midday. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of drizzle. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots veering south, then veering west to 30 knots late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers and drizzle. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet late in the day. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ847 Expires:202102272100;;710669 FZUS53 KGRR 270905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ847-272100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Muskegon Heights, MI
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location: 43.23, -86.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 271128 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 628 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 348 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

- Light wintry mix this morning, becoming partly cloudy for afternoon

- Drizzle late tonight and Sunday AM, small risk for freezing drizzle

- Mild for part of Sunday, then turning windy and cooler

- Cold air arrives Monday, potential for briefly hazardous travel

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Friday) Issued at 348 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

- Light wintry mix this morning, becoming partly cloudy for afternoon

Light wintry mix is expected to last until about 7 AM this morning, and could make roads a little slick roughly north of a Douglas to Hastings to St Johns line. South of there, we expect to see mostly rain. Snow accumulations should be fairly light and temperatures should warm above freezing by 10 AM.

After a period of low clouds and lingering haze from mid to late morning, skies should become partly cloudy in the afternoon as surface ridging builds in. Temperatures will rebound nicely from our bout of winter weather this morning, warming to the mid and upper 40s.

- Drizzle late tonight and Sunday AM, small risk for freezing drizzle

Larger chunk of energy embedded within the longwave trough that covers the western CONUS and Midwest will lift through the Western and Central Great Lakes late tonight and Sunday. Warmer air will begin to surge up into the area ahead of this system, but will initially occur above the ground as a southerly low-level jet noses in. Forecast soundings become saturated in the low-levels between 4- 7AM, and favor low clouds and areas of drizzle through mid to late morning. Better potential for drizzle looks to be after surface temperatures rise above freezing, but cannot rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle before this occurs. Main area of concern is interior portions of Central Michigan, which will have more time to temperatures to cool overnight before temperatures begin to rise. Threat for freezing drizzle should end by 10 AM.

- Mild for part of Sunday, then turning windy and cooler

Deepening low pressure will lift across Northern Michigan Sunday, dragging a cold front through the area. Before this occurs, temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s for most of the area, and we may even push 50 degrees towards the I-94 corridor and Lansing. Temperatures will then start to fall (from west to east) during the late afternoon and evening behind the frontal passage, with wind chills by early evening only in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will also increase in the mid to late afternoon with the frontal passage. While not all model runs have supported this, the 00Z GFS and Nam do show potential to bring 40-45 mph gusts to the surface.

- Cold air arrives Monday, potential for briefly hazardous travel

Upper low diving into Ontario Monday will drop a strong cold front through the area during the afternoon. Forecast highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s will be reached during the first part of the day. It will feel pretty raw behind the frontal passage by late afternoon as wind chills fall to the single digits and teens. Models have been bouncing around a little with respect to wind speeds for Monday. We will have the support of cold air advection, and the surface gradient will be pretty tight for a brief period. Core of 40-50 knot winds is up around 4-5 kft however, much higher than Sunday, and not as confident we will be able to mix well enough into it. Still see some potential for 40-45 mph gusts, so will not change messaging at this point.

Snow showers will accompany the frontal passage, and they could become briefly intense in the afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen to between 9-10 C/km. With temperatures dropping and the DGZ saturated, low visibility could be a big issue despite not seeing much snow accumulation, especially when the snow is combined with gusty winds. This is something we are going to have to keep a very close eye on for Monday afternoon as it could cause a sudden and significant change to travel conditions. Will see some lake effect snow showers in the cold air on the backside of the front, but they should become light by evening as high pressure to our west starts to expand over the lake.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 627 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Currently (1120z) we have solid IFR cigs and MVFR vis at all of our TAF sites. The snow has moved out of the area now and there is clearing skies moving on shore from Lake Michigan.

The clearing will be slow to move east but I do believe by 18z or so all TAFs should be clear or nearly so. Winds will be light from the southwest after 15z.

Tonight a quickly developing storm system will bring MVFR then IFR cigs back into the area after 06z from southwest to northeast. While not in the forecast some drizzle or light rain is possible toward sunrise Sunday. There is a very slight chance of freezing drizzle toward Sunday morning, that would mostly be near LAN


MARINE. Issued at 348 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

Windy conditions are expected to develop both Sunday and Monday as cold fronts work through the area. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed, and but also watching potential for winds to reach Gale Force each of these days.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 325 PM EST Thu Feb 25 2021

Nearly half of the snowpack in the Grand and Kalamazoo River basins has melted in the last several days, and the vast majority of the remaining snow will melt by the end of this coming weekend. Ice remains in place - especially on the Grand River - and is steadily weakening and melting in place. General flooding on the Grand and Kalamazoo River is NOT expected as a result of this melting snow. There is a small chance that some localized ice jams could form if and when the ice breaks up and begins to move. A return to colder overnight temperatures for early next week will slow down the movement of water toward the rivers, which this time of year is a good thing. All living near or recreating near the rivers of West Michigan should pay extra attention over the next week or two as we transition into springtime conditions, as conditions can sometimes change quickly.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . HLO DISCUSSION . HLO AVIATION . WDM HYDROLOGY . AMD MARINE . HLO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 7 mi39 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 32°F 1013 hPa31°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 32 mi59 min S 11 G 12 33°F 34°F1011.6 hPa33°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 51 mi59 min S 8 G 11 34°F 31°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Muskegon, Muskegon County Airport, MI5 mi34 minS 42.00 miFog/Mist33°F30°F89%1012.3 hPa
Fremont Municipal Airport, MI18 mi34 minSW 51.00 miFog/Mist32°F32°F100%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMKG

Wind History from MKG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S7S7S17
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1 day agoS6S4S11W10W13W16
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W9W6SW5S4S3S5S5S4S4S3S3S3CalmSE6SE4
2 days agoSW14SW11W12
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N14NW9NW6NW4N6N5N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.