Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Muskegon, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

- Very Cold With Lake Effect Snow Today

No changes in the forecast for today's lake effect event. Additional snowfall of 2-4 inches is expected today for areas near and west of US131. The I69 and eastern half of the I94 corridors including Lansing/Jackson could see up to an additional 2 inches with little additional accumulation across our northeastern forecast area.
Travel impacts are likely to continue through the day given continuing snow and limited effectiveness of salt keeping roads icy.
Visibility reductions are also likely under heavier snow showers.

The going Cold Weather Advisory remains in good shape. Wind chills across much of the area look to remain in the -10F to -20F range through mid-day Wednesday. A few areas inland of the lake may reach wind chills of -25F for a brief time in the first half of Wednesday morning for brief periods.

- Notable Lake Enhanced Snow Possible For Parts of Lakeshore Wednesday

Attention then turns to a northern stream clipper diving through the Great Lakes region Wednesday into Thursday. South to southwest flow looks to add lake enhancement to the clipper system given 850mb temps still remain in the negative teens. Most of the area will see a general 1-3 inch snowfall, however concern is increasing for a possible 6+ inches of snow across the lakeshore counties north of Holland into the Manistee National Forest.

The departing arctic air and approaching "warmer" airmass will lead to notable low-level FGEN across our northwestern forecast area during the day Wednesday aided by co-located elevated instability.
Warming temperatures increase DGZ depth with better snow ratios than the current event, favored to be 20:1 or higher, as a result. The probability of 6+ inches of snow across the aforementioned area of concern is currently in the 50-70 percent range with the solid nature of the setup supportive of locally higher amounts under FGEN banding. Wind gusts to 30 mph will also support lake effect snow and reduced visibilities across this region. Travel impacts across the region are likely, especially for the Wednesday evening commute.
Given ongoing winter headlines will defer to the day shift for any needed advisory vs warning decisions for this event.

- Warming With Additional Snow Chances For The Weekend

A much welcomed warmup is on track for the latter half of the week with highs climbing near 20 Wednesday afternoon and into the mid 20s for Thursday/Friday. Another clipper is forecast to move through the region Saturday bringing additional light snow chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1150 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Lake effect snow showers continuing tonight and Tuesday, producing frequent IFR/LIFR vsbys. Exception is JXN where MVFR should be more common than IFR/LIFR. Diminishing trend to the snow expected to develop Tuesday evening. West or southwest winds around 10 kts, increasing Tuesday afternoon to 12 to 22 kts. Winds stronger at MKG than at inland sites.

06Z GRR Airport DSS Update: No change from Monday's briefing. Accumulating snow and very cold temps continuing tonight and Tuesday; snow diminishing Tuesday evening.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

Conditions hazardous to small craft continue into Thursday with heavy freezing spray continuing into Wednesday as the core of the coldest air moves overhead. Winds up to 30 knots generally from the west shifting to southwest Wednesday are expected. There is a low (20-40 percent) chance that marginal gale force gusts occur Wednesday as a 35-40 knot jet moves overhead. Given the warm air advection pattern, its currently favored that we cannot quite mix into the better winds aloft. Given low confidence for the nearshore waters, will not issue a gale watch at this time however will re- evaluate on subsequent shifts.

CLIMATE
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

- Coldest High Temperatures Recorded on January 21

Grand Rapids: 5 (1984)
Lansing: 0 (1984)
Muskegon: 5 (1924)
Kalamazoo: 5 (1924)
Battle Creek: 0 (1984)
Holland: 9 (1963)

- Snowfall Records for January 21

Grand Rapids: 6.1 (1958)
Lansing: 10.0 (1904)
Muskegon: 7.9 (1959)
Kalamazoo: 8.0 (1959)

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ037-043- 050-056-064-071.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ038- 044-057-058-065>067-072>074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for LMZ844>849.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.