Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Muskegon, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

- Scattered Showers and Storms Through Wednesday

Instability driven by a mid-level cold pool will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next 24-30 hours. There will be a diurnal component to this, as is common with these events, with better coverage in the afternoon/evening each day. There is also a signal for greater coverage late this afternoon into the early evening across the western half of the CWA as the advancing lake breeze collides with easterly flow.

Little in the way of capping is present, with around 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE supporting the potential for thunder this afternoon and Wednesday. Shear is minimal, at or below 15 knots. Strong storms are not expected, but isolated small hail or gusty winds is not completely out of the question in a stronger updraft. The better risk is for locally heavy rainfall as storm motions will be slow given weak flow aloft. Precipitation winds down Wednesday Night as the upper-low moves away.

- Severe Thunderstorms Possible Thursday Evening/Night

The potential for the most impactful weather in the current package is Thursday evening/night. A mid-level wave in conjunction with a cold front will initiate storms across Wisconsin Thursday afternoon.
These storms will move east reaching West Michigan sometime Thursday evening and move across the area through late Thursday Night.

The parameter space is favorable for severe storms with our area seeing an overlap of both good forcing and the best instability.
Over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE are possible given dewpoints in the 60s under steeper mid-level lapse rates. Deep layer shear around 30-40 knots will be favorable for organized storms with ample SRH to support the potential for rotating hodographs.
Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible in this environment.

However some uncertainty to the exact timing, coverage, and intensity of storms exists. Guidance varies on when exactly storms arrive affecting their potential strength. Also, storm mode is uncertain. Can the storms over Wisconsin grow upscale into a QLCS by the time they arrive? Or do they remain at least semi-discrete supercells, the difference having implications for tornado potential. The extent of the EML and mid-level dry air on CIN is also a factor to monitor. Overall, while uncertainty remains as to if and how severe weather occurs, there is the potential for a significant severe weather episode across the region Thursday night. People should monitor the forecast over the next few days.

- Breezy Friday With Showers Friday Night into Saturday Morning

Behind the front, gusty conditions are expected in the cold air advection pattern. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible. A surface trough then crosses the area later Friday through Saturday morning with an upper-low overhead. This will likely bring at least scattered rain showers across the area. By this weekend, highs will fall to near 70 under the aforementioned trough.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 217 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

IFR conditions will continue at JXN through the early afternoon.
MVFR cigs linger through most other TAF sites. Still expecting cigs to improve as the afternoon continues. There remains the potential for storms though there remains some question on how widespread any storms will be. Best chance for storms will be between 22Z to 02Z with the southern TAF sites having the best chance of having TSRA. These could bring MVFR conditions with isolated IFR in heavier downpours. Low clouds and fog will bring more widespread IFR and LIFR after 06Z with cigs and vsbys lingering through most of Wednesday morning.

MARINE
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue May 13 2025

Winds and waves will remain non hazardous through the next few days.
There is some concern for lingering showers and storms late this afternoon, early this evening in the nearshore waters. There will be more of a concern Thursday evening as a line of storms could bring strong winds followed by winds gusting over 30 knots and waves building over 4 feet on Friday and Saturday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.