Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Irondequoit, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A chance of showers Saturday with a few thunderstorms possible, of which may be capable of producing gusty winds.

2) Summer-like heat possible Monday and Tuesday, then turns cooler Wednesday.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of showers Saturday with a few thunderstorms possible, of which may be capable of producing gusty winds.

The cool persistent low that impacted the area will slowly exit out to sea this afternoon. High pressure now edging in across the eastern Great Lakes will allow the May sun to take over across WNY which will make for a pleasant day for most of the area. That said...the departing low will keep the North Country enshrouded in mostly cloudy skies and continued cool
Overall
we are seeing improved conditions for most locals after a wet and very chilly day yesterday.

Otherwise...attention will turn to this weekend with a mid-level shortwave and front races east across the region. Ahead of the front south-southwest flow will begin to pick up across the region as a strengthening LLJ of 35-45 knots arrives. With the arrival of deeper moisture and building instability we should see some measure of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms by the afternoon-evening.
The greatest potential for any storms will likely be found southeast- east and well inland from the cooler stabilizing lakes. As was noted...the severe potential still looks low at this moment. Even so...any stronger cells that do develop potentially could produce some gusty winds.

The front exits to our southeast Saturday night with most shower activity coming to an end. Generally quiet weather expected Sunday with temperatures in most places climbing into the 70s, even a few readings in the low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summer-like heat possible Monday and Tuesday, then turns cooler Wednesday.

The mid and upper level ridge amplifies over the eastern third of the U.S. beggining Sunday, and then drifts off the Mid-Alantic Coast with cooler weather for the latter half of the week. As the ridge crests across the region it will bring summer-like warmth to the region Monday and again on Tuesday. This will boost temperatures into the 80s across much of western and north-central NY, with a run at 90F not out of the question for some of our traditionally warmest locations
Even so
the potential for reaching headline worthy criteria for heat is low at this time. Given the potential building warmth early next week...its worth noting that area water temps are still not that warm and in the 40s to low 50s. Take every precaution if you plan to visit any area waterways this weekend and next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found with a surface high pressure centered over the eastern Carolinas...ridged northward over the Lower Great Lakes. As this features slides out to sea...a shortwave trough will slide down and across the Great Lakes region supporting a south to southwest wind flow but also an increase in shower activity, especially during the final 6 to 8 hours of the TAF cycle. Modest instability across interior WNY will support chances for thunder at KJHW and KROC.

These southwest winds may gust up to 25 - 30 knots tomorrow afternoon, especially northeast of Lake Erie (KBUF/KIAG).

Though convective activity should largely remain with VFR flight conditions, there will be occasional MVFR flight conditions in either lower ceiling heights, or brief heavier showers lowering the visibility.

Outlook...

Saturday Night.. MVFR/VFR with showers passing east.

Sunday and Monday... Mainly VFR. Slight chance of showers early Sunday.

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. Potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the day, with minimal reductions expected at this time.

Wednesday. VFR/MVFR with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
Strengthening south to southwest flow will continue to support gentle to moderate breezes this afternoon through Saturday afternoon supporting a light to moderate chop on both Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Despite this, winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

Pressure gradient will then weaken, with light winds and little to no wave action on both lakes Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.