Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:34AM||Sunset 7:48PM||Saturday April 10, 2021 3:56 PM EDT (19:56 UTC)||Moonrise 5:25AM||Moonset 5:27PM||Illumination 2%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NYHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBUF 101906 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 306 PM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021
SYNOPSIS. Near record warmth and dry weather this afternoon as weak high pressure resides over the eastern Great Lakes. A front will then slowly cross the region from southwest to northeast late tonight and Sunday with periods of rain and possibly a few scattered thunderstorms. A slow moving upper level low will then bring unsettled weather for much of next week along with cooler and more seasonable temperatures.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Cirrus across area but starting to thin and temps have responded. Readings have reached around 80F over interior western NY and in the mid 70s elsewhere. Chilly exception is near immediate shoreline of Lake Ontario to west of Rochester (Olcott stuck in mid 40s).
Filtered sunshine will prevail the rest of the day. The sunshine, south-southeast downslope winds, and dry ground will allow temperatures to overachieve again today, especially on the lake plains with highs in the lower 80s. The higher terrain of the Southern Tier and North Country will see highs in the 70s. Record highs will be in jeopardy again, especially at Buffalo (82F/1945) and Watertown (78F/1969). The Rochester record of 85F/1945 is a little higher and will be difficult to reach.
Tonight will start dry with high pressure and dry air still in place. Late tonight and Sunday a compact mid level closed low will move from Illinois to northern Indiana, with a surface low becoming vertically stacked with time. A cold front spreading downstream of the system will become increasingly occluded as it moves into the eastern Great Lakes. Moisture convergence and deep moisture along the frontal zone will be aided by DPVA ahead of a mid level shortwave, resulting in a widespread area of rain moving into Western NY late tonight, reaching the Genesee Valley Sunday morning, before finally reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region Sunday afternoon. Still some timing differences in how quick this surge of rain moves across. Still could be just enough elevated instability associated with this to support some isolated, embedded thunder as well.
Later Sunday afternoon modest insolation just behind the advancing area of widespread rain will result in SBCAPE of around 500J/kg across portions of Western NY, the Genesee Valley, and eventually Central NY. This will support increasing coverage of showers during the afternoon and evening to the west of the initial area of showers, and may also support a few scattered thunderstorms. Weak instability, poor lapse rates, and weak shear will keep the risk of any strong convection low, but a few storms may produce heavy downpours. On Sunday night, conditions will remain unsettled as weak trough remains overhead while rounds of decaying convection lift across. Very uncertain on the details, but could also see fog needed later on if there is any sizable break in the convection on Sunday night given light flow and plenty of moisture in low- levels. The rain will be beneficial, with much of the area now classified as moderate drought. Rainfall amounts into Sunday night will average 0.25"-0.75", but embedded areas of thunder will modulate this and result in locally higher amounts for a few areas.
Otherwise, development of weak low pressure area along sfc trough to the east of western Great Lakes low will result in winds becoming northeast off Lake Ontario in the afternoon. Result was to lower temps some across Niagara frontier with most areas staying in the lower to perhaps mid 60s.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A closed stacked low will rotate over the central Great Lakes Monday and Monday night. A south-southeast flow will continue across the eastern Great Lakes while moisture rotates around the low. Periods of showers are expected as shortwave troughs rotate around the parent low. The closed low will become dislodged Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper level ridge over the northern Atlantic flattens and moves east. Low pressure over Michigan will track to the south Tuesday and quickly merge with a coastal low Tuesday night. The chance for showers continues during this time as the upper level low moves overhead.
Temperatures will remain above normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low 60s. Uncertainty exists with temperatures early in the week as showers and a mix of sun and clouds move through the region. Cold air advection will bring temperatures down to the low to mid 50s Wednesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. An upper level low will push off the New England coastline early this period, taking moisture and any low chances for a shower with it. An upper level ridge between this feature and another closed upper level low to the west will bring a likely dry period Friday and possibly through Saturday.
Temperatures at 850 hPa will average in the low single digits Celsius this period, which will translate into highs around 60F, and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with cirrus overhead. A surge of moisture will move into the region late tonight while a low level jet increases. Rain will enter KJHW/KBUF/KIAG shortly after midnight and spread eastward overnight reaching KROC by early Sunday morning and KART by late Sunday morning. Rain could be moderate at times with the slight chance of thunder which could reduce vsbys to less than 4SM. Rain will also reduce cigs to MVFR and IFR across the higher terrain (KJHW.) Flight conditions should remain VFR at KART as rain moves into the region.
Low level wind shear is possible at KBUF/KIAG/KROC late tonight. Surface winds will be stronger at KJHW which should limit wind shear.
Rain will exit the region from west to east Sunday morning and flight conditions will return to VFR through 18z.
Sunday afternoon . Chance of a few thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Monday through Wednesday . VFR/MVFR with spotty showers each day. Thursday . Mainly VFR.
MARINE. Southeast downslope winds will bring 15-20 knot winds to the Lake Erie shoreline tonight. The offshore wind direction will keep the greater wave action out near the international border. On Lake Ontario, ENE winds will increase to around 15 knots late this afternoon into tonight to the west of Rochester, producing some choppy conditions. Otherwise relatively light offshore winds will continue through early next week with no Small Craft Advisory conditions anticipated.
FIRE WEATHER. A drier and warmer airmass has returned to the region today, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent. South to southeast winds will gust up to 20 mph through late this afternoon.
Widespread wetting rain is anticipated for late tonight through Sunday. Cooler weather with higher humidity is then expected for all of next week.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.
SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . HSK MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA FIRE WEATHER . Hitchcock/JLA
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|RPRN6 - Rochester, NY||0 mi||57 min||NNE 1.9 G 2.9||52°F||1009.1 hPa (-2.1)|
|RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY||1 mi||57 min||51°F|
|OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY||59 mi||57 min||S 7 G 9.9||78°F||1008.9 hPa (-2.2)||48°F|
Wind History for Oswego, NY(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY||11 mi||63 min||SE 8||10.00 mi||Overcast||77°F||50°F||39%||1008.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KROC
Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
|1 day ago|
|2 days ago|
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