Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Irondequoit, NY

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 7:59PM Sunday August 25, 2019 11:48 AM EDT (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 3:22PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ043 Hamlin Beach To Sodus Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 425 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ043 Expires:201908251515;;174858 FZUS51 KBUF 250825 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 425 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-251515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Irondequoit, NY
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location: 43.27, -77.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 251434
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1034 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will ridge across the region today and then
slowly move off new england through Monday. This will provide a
dry pattern which will last through Monday night. It will be
warmer and chances for rain will increase ahead of a cold front
which will move across the region early on Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will continue to ridge across ny today. There is
still a thin are of moisture below an ~850mb inversion. This
will result in sunny skies becoming partly sunny as isolation
forces boundary layer convection with resulting stratocumulus
drifting east with the prevailing low level flow this afternoon.

Cloud cover may not quite be as extensive inland when compared
to the past two days with both a warmer airmass aloft and a
lacking contribution from the warm lakes. At least it should
be sunny over the lakes. By the end of the day, some cirrus
should start to move in from the sw, but it should be rather
thin.

Meanwhile, temperatures aloft bottomed out yesterday near 5-6c
at 850mb, and now have risen to about 8c. This trend will
continue into the first half of the week. With a warmer overall
airmass and adequate low level mixing, expect highs today to
average in the lower to mid 70s.

The surface high will drift into new england tonight, and this
will maintain dry weather with slowly increasing cirrus. A weak
southeasterly flow will develop, and this will limit but
probably not entirely prevent fog formation again overnight.

Slightly warmer air aloft and the light flow will lead to lows
mainly in the 50s.

Short term Monday through Wednesday
High pressure will remain nearly stationary across northern new
england and the canadian maritimes Monday. This will provide one
more pleasant day with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s, with some low 70s across the
higher terrain.

A warm front will approach from the west Monday night then cross the
area on Tuesday, as high pressure retreats eastward off the new
england coast. Expect the majority of the area to remain dry on
Monday night, however strengthening warm advection on the nose of 30-
35kt low level jet across western ny Tuesday morning will bring the
chance for some showers to the finger lakes and points west. The
best warm advection and upper dynamics will remain across western ny
as the warm front finishes pushing northeast of the area Tuesday
afternoon. This should keep most of the shower activity confined to
the western half of lake ontario and points south (remaining dry
across eastern lake ontario region), before tapering off later in
the afternoon as the front moves north into southern ontario. This
should leave behind a brief period of dry weather for the entire
area in its' wake late Tuesday, before a cold front draped across
the central great lakes approaches for Tuesday night. Another night
with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels in store, with
lows Monday night ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
higher terrain, to the mid and upper 50s elsewhere. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, however there
will be a noticeable uptick in the humidity, especially across
western ny, as dew points rise into the mid 60s.

The cold front will move into western ny by late Tuesday night, then
slowly move east across the remainder of the forecast area during
the day Wednesday. Main threat with this front appears to be a
period of heavy rain just ahead of the boundary with pwat values
rising to 1.75-2.00" within a ribbon of deep moisture pooling just
ahead of the cold front on the leading edge of 30-40kt low level
jet. Will keep just the chance for thunder in the forecast as
instability along the front is marginal. Deep southerly flow
combined with increased cloud cover will keep low temperatures
across most areas in the 60s Tuesday night, with some upper 50s
across the higher terrain east of lake ontario. Highs on Wednesday
will be in the mid to upper 70s for most areas, with some low 70s
across the higher terrain.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
A cooler airmass will briefly settle across the region Wednesday
night and Thursday behind the cold front. Large upper low will be
spinning over the hudson bay as large upper trough axis swings
through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. As the cold air
deepens, lingering moisture combined with 850mb temperatures falling
into the upper single digits celsius may be enough to produce some
lake enhanced rain showers downwind of the lakes later Wednesday
night into Thursday morning as steepening lapse rates combine with
lingering moisture. Will have low chance pops near the lakes for
this activity. As happens this time of year, the lakes will 'flip'
by Thursday afternoon due to strong diabatic heating over the land.

This will switch the overnight early morning land breeze over
to a lake breeze due to subsidence occuring over the lakes as
the land heats up and becomes warmer than the water surface.

This will force this boundary back inland where it will
intersect steep low level lapse rates due to cold air just off
the deck. When combined with low level moisture trapped under a
subsidence inversion, these features will produce stratocumulus
decks along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries. Some of
these decks may grow thick enough where instability is greatest
to produce a few showers during the afternoon (especially across
the higher terrain).

Warmer air will quickly move back into the region Thursday night
into Friday, as southwesterly flow develops between clockwise flow
around surface high pressure moving east across the mid atlantic,
and well out ahead of a cold front to the northwest of the area.

This should provide mainly dry weather during this period.

This weak cold front will cross our region Friday night or Saturday.

There is some disagreement amongst the models as to the timing of the
frontal passage this far out in the future. Will go with general
chance pops at this point until model consensus comes into better
alignment.

Temperatures will not stray much from normal, with highs in the 70s
and lows in the mid to upper 50s through this period.

Aviation 15z Sunday through Thursday
High pressure will dominate with mainlyVFR flight conditions
and light winds through tonight. Diurnal cumulus will by
afternoon, but cloud bases should be around 4k ft and in the
vfr flight category. These clouds will dissipate late afternoon
with widespreadVFR conditions through this evening. Patchy
valley fog will develop late tonight, but will probably remain
east of the kjhw terminal.

Outlook...

Monday... MainlyVFR with nothing more than southern tier valley
fog producing local ifr conditions.

Monday night and Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday...VFR with some short periods of
MVFR from showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Relatively light and variable winds with corresponding light wave
action are expected into Monday as surface high pressure moves
slowly east across the region.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel zaff
short term... Jm
long term... Jm
aviation... Apffel zaff
marine... Apffel zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 0 mi49 min ENE 7 G 8.9 67°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 1 mi55 min 66°F 1025.9 hPa
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 26 mi29 min E 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 72°F1026.7 hPa60°F
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 59 mi49 min NE 1.9 G 7

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rochester, Greater Rochester International Airport, NY11 mi1.9 hrsVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds66°F55°F68%1027.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KROC

Wind History from ROC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE8NE6N9NE9
G19
NE9NE10NE9NE8NE8E5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3SW3SW3SW4CalmSW4Calm3E7
1 day agoNE8N8NE11N8
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N7N9N5NW3NW3NW4NW4CalmN4NE6N3CalmCalmNW3N4NE10NE8NE9
2 days agoW9W10W10W8W10W11NW11W7W4W4W3SW3SW4SW4SW4SW4W4SW4SW3CalmCalmN7N7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.