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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 228 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 8 ft after midnight. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

ANZ100 228 Pm Edt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains in control of the waters until the end of the work week. A front passing well to the north will turn winds more southwesterly today before shifting back to offshore this evening and tonight. SWell will continue to diminish as well. Late in the week deeper southerly flow and chances for rain return to the gulf of maine.

FXUS61 KGYX 031856 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 256 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Well above normal temperatures continue into the second half of this week. High pressure that will continue this warm weather will begin to shift offshore Thursday into Friday. An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will send a dynamic system into the area Friday night through Sunday morning. Behind this system conditions will be cooler and unsettled as an upper low lingers over the Northeast.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather tonight through Wednesday night. Warm conditions are observed across the area with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s under fair skies. Augusta has already broken the record high for today reaching 82 degrees as of this writing as well as Portland tying today's record at 80 degrees. For more details about records today and tomorrow see the climate section below.

Tonight will be mild with lows generally in the 50s. Valley fog will be likely tonight as well as some fog potential along the Mid Coast into central Maine.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A back door front will attempt to push southwestward through Maine late tonight into Wednesday morning. This front does not look to make much progress southwest of the Mid Coast while it will be enough to knock temperatures down a few degrees from today's highs across coastal and central Maine. There may also be more in the way of clouds across eastern zones Wednesday.
Overall, another warm day with fair weather is expected with highs ranging from the low 80s across New Hampshire to the mid to low 70s across central and coastal Maine.

Valley fog will again be likely Wednesday night while onshore flow may lead to patchy fog along the coastal Plain as well.
Otherwise, it will be another mild night with low in the 60s.



LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The long term portion of the forecast begins with a strong upper level ridge of high pressure off the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, southeasterly winds will begin to circulate around surface high pressure which will be departing to our east through the Canadian Maritimes. It will continue to be partly sunny, warm and humid. This humidity will lead to some morning fog to linger. Afternoon highs will mainly be in the 70s with some 60s along the Midcoast region due to the onshore winds.
Will need to watch the onshore trends as any potential low cloudiness and patchy fog may limit these highs which is in sync with the latest HRRR solution.

On Friday, the onshore flow will be even more pronounced as a large surface high moves out into the open Atlantic allowing for an increase in southeasterly winds. This will allow for slightly cooler, but more muggy conditions.

12Z operational models and latest ensemble solutions suggest showers will arrive Friday night from a large and vigorous trough approaching from the west. On Saturday, this dynamic system will become neutrally to negatively tilted and parked over the eastern Great Lakes. Plenty of moisture will enter the region with PWats increasing and maxing out on Saturday. Model QPF is looking for potentially an inch or two of precipitation but more can be expected over the southeastern facing higher terrain.

And of course a fly in the ointment may be tropical storm Philippe moving towards the Northeast, but potential out over the open waters of the Atlantic. This system has the potential to added extra moisture to this already vigorous upper level low pressure, but also could allow some tropical moisture to be shunted to our east.

In any case, unsettled conditions will continue Sunday into Monday as the upper level low shifts to the east. Much cooler weather can be expected with our first mountains snow showers in some areas for this fall.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Valley fog likely brings LIFR conditions to KLEB and possibly KHIE. Some patchy fog may also impact KAUG, KCON,and KRKD. VFR prevails Wednesday with possibly more widespread fog bringing impacts Wednesday night.

Long Term...Nighttime fog will likely continue to bring restrictions tonight through Friday, especially in the valleys, but could prevail during the daylight hours. A frontal system moves in Friday night into Saturday which could bring MVFR restrictions in rain showers, or lower in areas of heavy rain.

MARINE
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Wednesday night. A back door front will bring a wind shift out of the NE tonight with winds shifting more southeasterly Wednesday.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through Friday with increasing southerly flow. Seas will begin to build toward SCA criteria with southerly winds on Saturday.

CLIMATE
High temperatures may approach records again on Wednesday. Here are current record highs and year set for Portland, Concord, and Augusta on October 3rd and 4th.

Oct. 3rd Oct. 4th Portland - 80 (2002) 82 (1941)
Concord - 84 (1967) 84 (1931)
Augusta - 79 (1983) 81 (2001)



GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cape Porpoise
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Tue -- 02:39 AM EDT     9.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:51 PM EDT     10.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:38 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:18 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Cape Porpoise, Maine, Tide feet

Wood Island Harbor
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Tue -- 02:29 AM EDT     9.47 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:41 PM EDT     10.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:37 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:00 PM EDT     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Wood Island Harbor, Maine, Tide feet

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