NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LOZ030 Lower Niagara River- 700 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely in the evening.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then rain likely overnight.
Friday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Rain.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Rain likely during the day.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of rain showers.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 291218 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 718 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
Lake effect snow bands will weaken as they sweep north across portions of western and northcentral NY this morning. Weak low pressure develops over the upper Great Lakes late today and this evening which may bring another round of lake effect snow showers to areas northeast of the Lakes with some minor additional accumulations possible. High pressure then builds in briefly Thursday bringing dry and warmer weather before generally unsettled weather returns for the end of the work week and the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Radar this morning showing our continued backing of the winds as lake effect snow bands on both Lakes move northward. Off Lake Erie, a single fairly well-organized band is lifting slowly northward through northern Erie County, while the band off Lake Ontario is lifting northward into southern Jefferson and central Lewis counties. With this in mind have dropped the LES Warning for all counties but Lewis County, which is now in effect through Noon.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for northern Erie and Jefferson counties through Noon and 11 AM respectively.

Winds will shift from the west-southwest this morning to south- southwest by late morning/midday. This is causing lake effect snows to move northward at a quicker pace as we progress through the morning hours. Convergent bands down the length of each lake will allow lake snows to temporarily become better organized with snowfall rates increasing during this time. Expect to see snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour off Lake Erie through mid morning and off Lake Ontario through late morning. Additional snowfall totals will be somewhat limited due to the transient nature of the bands, but still could see an additional 3-6" across higher terrain in Jefferson and Lewis counties off Lake Ontario. Window will be longer off Lake Ontario as it will benefit from upstream moisture courtesy of both Lake Huron and Lake Erie during this time.

Unfortunately, the timing of this snow and the morning commute are overlapping for the Buffalo metro, however it will be after the Watertown area morning commute. The band will move through Buffalo quickly, but still could see a burst of 1-2 inches during the commute. As mentioned, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Northern Erie County this morning to account for this.

Winds will continue out of the south-southwest this afternoon with the bulk of any weak lake effect activity north of Niagara County off Lake Erie and near the Saint Lawrence River off Lake Ontario where an additional inch or so will be possible, although expect less impacts as temperatures should crack the freezing mark this afternoon there. That said, another cold and blustery day on tap with mid to upper 20s for highs across the higher terrain and low 30s elsewhere.

Winds veer back southwesterly tonight as an area of low pressure develops across the upper Great Lakes. This will shift lingering lake bands back south across areas northeast of the Lakes later this evening into the overnight. These bands will be weakening over time as warm air advection and subsidence steadily increase through the night. Additional accumulations will be light with possibly another inch or two across the Niagara Frontier and Jefferson County. With a warm advection regime in place, expect low temps will mainly occur during the evening with mainly mid to upper 20s across inland areas to the lower 30s along the lakeshores. Temps should then slowly rise for the remainder of the overnight.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
This evening a shortwave trough will finish crossing the area.
In its wake the general south-southwesterly flow in place early in the evening will veer to west-southwesterly through much of the night...before starting to turn more southwesterly again late across far western New York as a modest wave of low pressure develops over the Upper Lakes. As a result the lake effect plumes will settle back to areas east-northeast of the lakes...though these will also be steadily weakening over time due to a combination of increasing warm air advection/subsidence aloft
diminishing moisture
and increasing directional shear
Consequently
expect any additional accumulations to be limited to another inch or two east/northeast of Lake Erie and 1-3 inches east/northeast of Lake Ontario...with the Lake Erie activity likely being reduced to just some remnant flurries by late in the night. Given the warm advection regime and a decent surface gradient...low temps will mostly occur during the first part of the evening and range from the mid/upper 20s inland to the lower 30s along the lakeshores...with slowly rising temps then following for the balance of the night.

On Thursday, last vestiges of lake effect will occur through mid morning northeast of Lake Ontario. Soundings show shallow moisture so very light snow or flurries should be result. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly sunny and dry day. Warm air advection will boost temps into the low to mid 40s. Even though 50 kt H85 jet will lead to breezy conditions over western NY, a low-level inversion should cap the potential for stronger winds. Thursday night, weakening boundary drops across northern areas. While the front will be weak in nature and thus should largely produce just some scattered light rain showers... contributions of moisture from the lakes will probably be sufficient to result in a period of more numerous rain showers east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario overnight...where some wet snow will probably also mix in across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

By Friday morning, the front will slowly cross the area while also serving as a path for incoming southern stream shortwave trough.
This trough along with a coupled upper jet and deep moisture will result in a broad area of stratiform light rain (snow mixed in for highest terrain east of Lake Ontario). Ramped up pops to categorical and shifted axis of higher pops over all area based on model trends.
A raw day with highs only reaching the upper 30s to lower 40s.
System quickly exits on Friday evening across New England but some light rain/snow showers may linger mainly east of Lake Ontario in the evening. Basin averages with this system 0.25 to 0.50 so even with the melting snow in the snow belts, don't anticipate hydro issues.

Next southern stream wave quickly moves in late Friday night. Decent agreement in at least light precip to become more widespread, so increased pops late Friday night and carried this through most of Saturday. System is even warmer aloft than the one on Friday, so again mainly rain as ptype. Could be cold enough east of Lake Ontario for a mix initially though. Temperatures east of Lake Ontario don't rise much, but soundings still show lowest levels warm enough for mainly rain. Elsewhere, temperatures warming into the low to mid 40s will support rain. Basin averages similar to Friday system with most locations seeing less than 0.50 of rain. Not much forcing or deeper moisture in wake of the shortwave trough for Saturday night so just have some small chances for mixed rain/snow showers east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Uncertainty abounds early next week. Cutter system that has been shown is mainly off in the primary models for now, except the GFS.
Interesting though that even though EC and Canadian operational models are keeping main focus for low pressure off the east coast, their ensembles do show many members with a look more like the GFS.
If that occurs it would bring some cold air advection gusty winds into the picture later Monday with at least lake enhanced rain/snow showers developing on NW flow for Tuesday. Blended guidance had that general idea as did continuity. Kept that rolling and we can sort it out as we get closer to the time frame in question. Overall though no matter how you slice it, weather will remain active into early next week.

Temperatures will be slightly above average ahead Sunday and Monday but then will trend back to normal or even a bit below by the middle of next week. Even with the stronger GFS idea though, the cold air shown behind the system is fairly mundane (H85 temps not even as low as -10c) for what will be the first week of December.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Lake snows will continue to lift north through the morning hours, with a burst of moderate to heavy snow at KBUF through 9AM or so and KART from mid to late morning. This will not last too long (around 1-2 hours at KBUF and 2-3 hours at KART). However, VSBY may drop to 1/2SM or lower when the band moves through.
Band off Lake Erie will continue to weaken as it moves further north, but may bring a brief reduction in VSBY to KIAG around mid morning. Outside of lake snows expect mainly MVFR to low VFR flight conditions.

Another weak trough will produce a minor burst of lake enhanced snows later this evening into the overnight, with localized IFR possible northeast of the Lakes (KBUF/KIAG/KART), with again mainly MVFR to low VFR decks outside of the lake effect.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR with lake effect snow ending early.
Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Strong westerly winds will shift southwesterly today keeping winds and waves above headline criteria through late this week, with long duration Small Craft Advisories in effect for all but the Niagara River and St. Lawrence River during this time.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NYZ007.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until noon EST today for NYZ008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ010.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Buffalo, NY,