Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cedarburg, WI

SHORT TERM
Issued 128 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Today through Monday:

Currently keeping an eye on Minnesota as convection has blossomed over the central portions of the state. Rapid refresh CAMs suggest a dying MCS may clip the southwestern portions of our CWA near daybreak on Sunday. If this were to occur, gusty winds and hail would be the main hazards.

Subsidence is then expected following this morning convection and skies should clear. Dew points are expected to rise into the mid 70s tomorrow, amid daytime highs in the low 90s. This will lead to heat indices in the 100 to 103 range over much of the area tomorrow. The weak pressure gradient will promote a lake breeze which may keep the immediate lakeshore cooler for tomorrow. A Heat Advisory has been issued for much of southern WI from Noon to 9PM today.

It looks increasing likely that storms will hold off until either the evening or overnight hours tonight into Monday. One constant among the CAMs is that an MCS will fire closer to the 500mb trough over northern WI/UP of Michigan and propagate south-southeast into central WI. However, CAMs vary regarding timing/positioning, as some have this complex further east over Lake Michigan, while others have this MCS tracking south into our CWA around midnight. In either scenario, it does look like convection may linger through the night following the main MCS as the low level jet triggers new storms along an outflow boundary. With whatever MCS gets going, gusty winds and hail will be the main threats, as DCAPE will be near 1100 J/kg, mid level lapse rates will be near 8 C/km, and effective bulk shear will approach 70 knots. A conditional boundary interaction with the remnants of the lake breeze may lead to a sneaky QLCS tornado threat on an isolated basis, provided the boundary doesn't wash out quickly after dark.

Weak convection then may linger into Monday with some potential for storms to reinvigorate ahead of a cold front with daytime heating late Monday. Given the potential for convection and cloud cover to linger during the day, have held off on hoisting a Heat Advisory for Monday at this time until details about Monday's convection become clearer.

CMiller

LONG TERM
Issued 105 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tuesday through Saturday:

Mid week looks quiet as a sfc high pressure ridge builds into the upper Great Lakes region. Northeast sfc flow Tuesday and Wednesday should promote more manageable dew points in the low 60s and daytime highs in the low to mid 80s. Precip chances then return late week as a warm front lifts northward into the region and humidity mildly increases.

CMiller

AVIATION
Issued 1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Expect a continuing mix of marginal MVFR and VFR ceilings overnight with chances for fog near daybreak from KMSN on westward toward the MS valley. Winds will be light and southwesterly. Expect breaks in the MVFR and VFR ceilings tomorrow morning and for broad VFR conditions to take hold by Sunday afternoon. Some isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is possible on a conditional basis Sunday afternoon, but forecast model agreement is poor regarding coverage and when/where/if storms will form.

CMiller

MARINE
Issued 1237 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No major changes to the going forecast

A weak low pressure trough will stall along the Wisconsin- Upper Michigan border this evening. It will remain over Wisconsin and Lake Michigan through most of Monday which will result in increasing thunderstorm chances with severe storms possible. Very warm, moist and unstable air flowing over the relatively cool waters may cause patchy dense fog over the lake through Monday as well.

Northerly winds will develop Monday night through Wednesday as high pressure builds over the Upper Great Lakes and the front pushes southward. A few gale force gusts are possible Tuesday afternoon. Look for southerly winds and more unsettled weather to resume Thursday into next weekend.

CMiller

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI
Heat Advisory
WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058- WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068- WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...noon Sunday to 9 PM Sunday.

LM...None.