Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedarburg, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 261440 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 840 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATE. (Issued 840 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021)

Cancelled dense fog advisory a smidge early. Otherwise going forecast in good shape.

Collar

SHORT TERM. (Issued 413 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021)

Today through Saturday:

With clear skies and warmer southerly winds over the colder snow pack, some patchy fog/freezing fog has developed across the area and will continue early this morning. Seeing lower visibilities for areas generally along and west of I-90 with a dense fog occuring in Iowa and Lafayette counties. Fog potential for areas further east will be less likely as dewpoint depressions are a bit higher. However, expect the fog to dissipate an hour or two after sunrise as temps and dewpoint depressions increase.

Today will be warmer and breezy as the pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the east and ahead of a surface low working its way across south central Canada. This warm air advection regime will help temps climb into the 40s this afternoon. Given how models have underperformed with temps due to them not handling the snowpack well, went ahead and increased highs a few degrees above most of the guidance today.

Otherwise, the main focus will be on a mid-level shortwave trough expected to dig across the Northern Plains during the day and push into the Western Great Lake Region tonight. This wave is progged to bring a band of low-level frontogenesis across the the area overnight and combine additional lift from WAA/dCVA with PWATs around 0.25"-0.5", it will be enough for a quick round of precip across southern WI tonight. Thinking with the warmer temps at the onset, will likely see a wintry rain-snow mix, but eventually transition over to snow overnight as temps drop, especially for areas near and north of I-94. Still not expecting too much in the way of snow accumulations with no more than an inch, but it may just be enough to cause some slicks spots. Additionally, with the surface temps trending colder than the air temps overnight could see a light glaze on surfaces along the WI/IL border with the wintry mix and rain.

Any precip is expected to end Saturday morning as the mid-level shortwave trough pushes east. Otherwise, Saturday during the day will be quiet and warm as mid-level ridging briefly sets up in between shortwave troughs. Again looking at temps to climb into the 40s, but model guidance is likely under doing high temps in another WAA pattern. Therefore, bumped temps up again above guidance and I wouldn't be surprised to see temps end up a few degrees warmer. Maybe can see a location or two even crack 50 degrees on Saturday? Then another shortwave trough is expected to works it way through the region overnight Saturday and bring a surface low right across WI resulting in another chance of a wintry mix. However, precip chances remain low for southern WI with better chances further north, but there is still uncertainty with coverage, precip type, and timing. Will keep an eye on this quick moving system and how it trends over the next few days.

Wagner

LONG TERM. (Issue 445 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021)

Sunday through Thursday:

Cyclogenesis is expected from central WI into Ontario on Sunday. A dry slot will likely end most pcpn by 12Z Sun but cannot rule out slight chances for drizzle or freezing drizzle mainly north of Madison and Milwaukee. A strong cold front will pass during the morning with brisk wly winds the remainder of the day.

A digging upper trough and associated sfc trough from Canada will then quickly move from the nrn Great Lakes to the Lower Great Lakes late Sun nt-Mon with another dry cold frontal passage for Monday morning. Below normal temps expected for Monday.

Polar high pressure to then shift east across the state for Mon nt, sswly winds and warm advection will then begin on Tue as the high moves away and low pressure moves across srn Canada. A shortwave trough will likely pass to the south over the Ohio River Valley for Tue nt-Wed. The ECMWF and GEFS then differ on the degree of cooling with nwly flow becoming established for the ECMWF but quasi-zonal for GEFS.

Gehring

AVIATION. (Issued 840 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021)

Still some patchy MVFR vsbys here and there but this will be improving quickly here. Otherwise VFR conditions today. Some MVFR cigs possible for a time tonight as system moves through. A light mix is possible between around 02-08z. Scattered QPF amounts very light with any snow accums a few tenths at best.

Collar

MARINE. (Issued 413 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021)

With high pressure well to the east and low pressure moving across south central Canada today, expect breezy to gusty south to southwesterly winds. This will result in small craft conditions with gusts up to 25 knots and waves building to around 3-5 ft for our northern nearshore marine zones until tonight. Gusty conditions are expected over the open waters as well with a few gusts possibly approaching gale force for far northern portions of the lake, but widespread gales are not expected. Lighter south to southwesterly winds are expected for Saturday before another area of low pressure tracks over Wisconsin on Sunday. This will bring gusty winds on Sunday and will continue into the first half of next week.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . Small Craft Advisory . LMZ643 until 3 AM Saturday.



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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	9 mi	46 min	S 12 G 17	37°F			1020.7 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI	22 mi	36 min	SE 17 G 19	35°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	34 mi	26 min	S 20 G 23	35°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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W10 G15

SW7 G11

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SW6 G9

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SW4 G7

S2 G5

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N5 G12

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W8 G16

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W9 G13

S2 G7

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SE1 G4

NE4 G7

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N5 G8

N7 G13

N4 G10

N9 G13

N9 G17

N10 G18

N12 G18

N12 G17

N13 G20

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	11 mi	31 min	SSE 11 G 16	10.00 mi	Fair	41°F	21°F	45%	1017.9 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	13 mi	41 min	SSE 10 G 18	10.00 mi	Fair	41°F	16°F	36%	1019 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	23 mi	41 min	SSE 12	10.00 mi	Fair	39°F	19°F	45%	1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)

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W11 G15

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S13 G17

S10 G14

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N11 G19

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W10 G14

W10 G16

NW11 G15

NW12 G17

NW11 G19

NW14 G18

N10

N12 G20

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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