Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedarburg, WI

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Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 170942 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

SHORT TERM. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Today through Monday:

A mid-level short wave trough is working its way across the Middle Mississippi River Valley this morning and will push east into the Ohio River Valley through the day. Some light precip is occurring early this morning as freezing drizzle for areas west of I-90, which prompted a Winter Weather Advisory. These conditions look to persist through at least sunrise before the column saturates enough in the DGZ and for precip to transition to snow as RAP model soundings suggests. Already seeing the transition upstream in southeastern MN.

Despite the better dynamics associated with the mid-level wave remaining west and south of our CWA, there should be enough lift and moisture for chances of light snow and flurries today and could see flurries linger into the evening as well. Overall, outside of the icy stretches and slick travel conditions from the freezing drizzle this morning, not expecting much in the way of impacts or accumulations (a dusting to a few tenths of an inch at most) from the light snow later this morning into the afternoon.

Otherwise, Monday looks to be quieter as mid-level northwesterly flow sets up over WI and high pressure begins to build to our west across the Northern Plains. Expect cloudy conditions to persist today into Monday with daytime temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s and overnight lows in the 20s.

Wagner

LONG TERM. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Monday Night and Tuesday:

Weak mid-level short wave train continues to affect the western Great Lakes during this period as amplifying low pressure moves south across Hudson Bay. Weak pieces of energy rotating around this stronger Canadian wave move rapidly southeast across Wisconsin and the region. Medium range guidance is showing some increase in mid-level moisture later Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the strongest wave moving through on Tuesday. Due to uncertainty continuing on amount of moisture, wl continue dry forecast but would not be surprised if small chances for -shsn are introduced for Tuesday in later forecasts.

Tuesday Night through Saturday:

The dominant and persistent northwest steering flow finally begins to back to the west Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a strengthening upstream long wave trof. As a result of the shift, a tightening thermal ribbon in the low levels and a weak area of isentropic lift and warm air advection may bring a period of light snow to the area. Available moisture and location of forcing still a question, so wl hold off on introducing any POPS at this time. In addition, only a couple of KDBQ GEFS plumes showing light precip during this period, while most remain dry.

Otherwise, low level warm air advection begins in earnest on Wednesday ahead of upstream amplifying trof. Moisture remains limited in the low to mid levels so wl continue dry forecast on Wednesday in WAA, and with weak cold front/trof passage Wednesday night. 925H temps increase to around 0C which should help the daytime temp warm back into the low to mid 30s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Medium range guidance in better agreement on Arctic front moving through southern WI later Thursday and Thursday night with a 925H temps dropping to 10 to 15C for Friday. The colder air will remain in place through the weekend. Extended guidance continues to show warmer air trying to return to the Upper Midwest later in the weekend with a possible strengthening short wave moving toward the region in the Sunday night/Monday time frame. Potential split flow and phasing of a northern wave adds considerable uncertainty. However about 1/3 of the GEFS members are showing QPF above 0.1" for the Madison area by Sunday evening. This could be the next widespread winter precipitation weather maker for the area as we start the work week of the 25th.

Kavinsky


AVIATION. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Light freezing drizzle will continue for areas west I-90 this morning before it is expected to transition to snow mid to later this morning. Chances of light snow and flurries are expected through the afternoon and may linger into the evening as well. Otherwise, expect northwesterly winds with ceilings bouncing around between VFR and MVFR/IFR. Ceilings should lift and hold above VFR levels later this afternoon, but are looking to lower below MVFR overnight.

Wagner

MARINE. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Light to moderate northwesterly winds will continue today into Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. Then high pressure is expected to build into the region on Tuesday with west-northwest winds shifting to the southwest ahead of a strong low pressure that is progged to move across Manitoba and Ontario mid-week. This will bring a cold front across the Lake and stronger winds with gales possible for the middle to late next week.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 9 AM Sunday.

LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI	9 mi	66 min	WNW 4.1 G 6	32°F			1006.8 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI	34 mi	46 min	W 5.1 G 6	31°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI	11 mi	71 min	WNW 5	10.00 mi	Light Snow	30°F	28°F	93%	1004.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI	13 mi	51 min	W 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	32°F	27°F	80%	1005.4 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI	23 mi	51 min	WNW 5	10.00 mi	Overcast	30°F	27°F	86%	1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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