Sunday, January17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedarburg, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:46PM Sunday January 17, 2021 3:46 AM CST (09:46 UTC) Moonrise 11:13AMMoonset 10:41PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 306 Am Cst Sun Jan 17 2021
Early this morning..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of drizzle and snow. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of snow until late afternoon, then chance of flurries late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of flurries through the night. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots backing west in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then rising to 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ644 Expires:202101172200;;046764 FZUS53 KMKX 170906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-172200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedarburg, WI
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location: 43.31, -88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 170942 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 342 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021

SHORT TERM. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Today through Monday:

A mid-level short wave trough is working its way across the Middle Mississippi River Valley this morning and will push east into the Ohio River Valley through the day. Some light precip is occurring early this morning as freezing drizzle for areas west of I-90, which prompted a Winter Weather Advisory. These conditions look to persist through at least sunrise before the column saturates enough in the DGZ and for precip to transition to snow as RAP model soundings suggests. Already seeing the transition upstream in southeastern MN.

Despite the better dynamics associated with the mid-level wave remaining west and south of our CWA, there should be enough lift and moisture for chances of light snow and flurries today and could see flurries linger into the evening as well. Overall, outside of the icy stretches and slick travel conditions from the freezing drizzle this morning, not expecting much in the way of impacts or accumulations (a dusting to a few tenths of an inch at most) from the light snow later this morning into the afternoon.

Otherwise, Monday looks to be quieter as mid-level northwesterly flow sets up over WI and high pressure begins to build to our west across the Northern Plains. Expect cloudy conditions to persist today into Monday with daytime temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s and overnight lows in the 20s.

Wagner

LONG TERM. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Monday Night and Tuesday:

Weak mid-level short wave train continues to affect the western Great Lakes during this period as amplifying low pressure moves south across Hudson Bay. Weak pieces of energy rotating around this stronger Canadian wave move rapidly southeast across Wisconsin and the region. Medium range guidance is showing some increase in mid-level moisture later Monday night and Tuesday ahead of the strongest wave moving through on Tuesday. Due to uncertainty continuing on amount of moisture, wl continue dry forecast but would not be surprised if small chances for -shsn are introduced for Tuesday in later forecasts.

Tuesday Night through Saturday:

The dominant and persistent northwest steering flow finally begins to back to the west Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of a strengthening upstream long wave trof. As a result of the shift, a tightening thermal ribbon in the low levels and a weak area of isentropic lift and warm air advection may bring a period of light snow to the area. Available moisture and location of forcing still a question, so wl hold off on introducing any POPS at this time. In addition, only a couple of KDBQ GEFS plumes showing light precip during this period, while most remain dry.

Otherwise, low level warm air advection begins in earnest on Wednesday ahead of upstream amplifying trof. Moisture remains limited in the low to mid levels so wl continue dry forecast on Wednesday in WAA, and with weak cold front/trof passage Wednesday night. 925H temps increase to around 0C which should help the daytime temp warm back into the low to mid 30s both Wednesday and Thursday.

Medium range guidance in better agreement on Arctic front moving through southern WI later Thursday and Thursday night with a 925H temps dropping to 10 to 15C for Friday. The colder air will remain in place through the weekend. Extended guidance continues to show warmer air trying to return to the Upper Midwest later in the weekend with a possible strengthening short wave moving toward the region in the Sunday night/Monday time frame. Potential split flow and phasing of a northern wave adds considerable uncertainty. However about 1/3 of the GEFS members are showing QPF above 0.1" for the Madison area by Sunday evening. This could be the next widespread winter precipitation weather maker for the area as we start the work week of the 25th.

Kavinsky


AVIATION. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Light freezing drizzle will continue for areas west I-90 this morning before it is expected to transition to snow mid to later this morning. Chances of light snow and flurries are expected through the afternoon and may linger into the evening as well. Otherwise, expect northwesterly winds with ceilings bouncing around between VFR and MVFR/IFR. Ceilings should lift and hold above VFR levels later this afternoon, but are looking to lower below MVFR overnight.

Wagner

MARINE. (Issued 337 AM CST Sun Jan 17 2021)

Light to moderate northwesterly winds will continue today into Monday as a weak area of low pressure moves across the northern Great Lakes. Then high pressure is expected to build into the region on Tuesday with west-northwest winds shifting to the southwest ahead of a strong low pressure that is progged to move across Manitoba and Ontario mid-week. This will bring a cold front across the Lake and stronger winds with gales possible for the middle to late next week.

Wagner

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . Winter Weather Advisory . WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068 until 9 AM Sunday.

LM . None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 9 mi66 min WNW 4.1 G 6 32°F 1006.8 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 34 mi46 min W 5.1 G 6 31°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI11 mi71 minWNW 510.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F93%1004.7 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi51 minW 410.00 miOvercast32°F27°F80%1005.4 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI23 mi51 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast30°F27°F86%1005.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.