Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cedarburg, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:55PM Friday September 20, 2019 8:03 PM CDT (01:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:33PMMoonset 12:50PM Illumination 56% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ644 Port Washington To North Point Light Wi- 707 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering south early in the morning. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 3 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots veering southwest after midnight. Gusts up to 25 knots. Showers likely through around midnight. Thunderstorms likely through the night. Showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots veering west late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 knots. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ644 Expires:201909210400;;099794 FZUS53 KMKX 210007 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 707 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ644-210400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedarburg, WI
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location: 43.31, -88     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 202351
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
651 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019

Update
Despite a relatively unstable airmass, little in the way of
convection was able to develop this evening, due to an absence of
any organized source of lift. A few storms tried to develop across
extreme southern rock county, but have since fizzled. With the
impending loss of sunlight, things should remain dry through the
rest of the evening hours.

Southerly winds will begin to increase overnight as low pressure
lifts from eastern colorado into south dakota. Before the winds
pick up, some fog is possible later this evening, though it should
not be terribly widespread. Any fog that does form should
dissipate before dawn as winds increase and mid and high level
clouds stream into the area.

Didn't make any significant changes to the timing of
showers thunderstorms for tomorrow. Convection should begin to
overspread the area from the west and southwest around sunrise,
with a gradual eastward expansion through the morning. Will
probably see multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms through
the day tomorrow, so despite high pops, some breaks are likely. A
more continuous period of convection is more likely tomorrow night
as the front begins to approach.

Aviation(00z tafs)
Vfr is expected through the night, with just some mid and high
level clouds streaming in toward morning. Some fog is not
entirely out of the question, but is not currently expected to be
widespread enough to have a significant impact at the terminals.

Showers and thunderstorms are then expected to push into the area
from west to east tomorrow morning, with MVFR visibility and MVFR
to ifr ceilings. This activity will persist in at least a
scattered fashion through much of the day. South to southwest
winds will also be on the increase, with gusts into the 20-25 knot
range at times.

Prev discussion (issued 356 pm cdt Fri sep 20 2019)
short term...

tonight and Saturday - confidence... Medium
lingering anticyclonic flow in the low levels and aloft breaks
down this period as low pressure approaches from the plains. A
southerly flow will be on the increase and will become quite
gusty on Saturday. Moisture transport will be enhanced with the
northward pull of tropical moisture from the southern plains. With
extensive cloud cover CAPE should be somewhat limited. But have
increased pops as the day wears on Saturday to account for better
mid level forcing as well as the lower level moisture advection.

Long term...

Saturday night through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The upper jet will sit over the upper midwest through the weekend,
along with the leading edge of an upper trough. A surface trough
will be the focus for repeated rounds of thunderstorms with the
focus over southern wisconsin to northeast wisconsin and lake
michigan. The trough will finally slide southeast by Sunday night.

Monday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The closed upper low will side through the great lakes region on
Monday. Cyclonic flow will keep us in the clouds at least Monday
morning and we could see some light showers as well.

Tuesday through Friday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be with the
next upper trough swinging through and an associated cold front.

Warm air advection will arrive during the day Wednesday and the
front will slide through Wednesday afternoon or evening. The ecmwf
is showing a stronger upper trough than the GFS at this time.

Yet another round of showers and storms will arrive Friday. This
surface low should focus more toward lake superior at this time.

Marine... Lingering influence of high pressure tonight though the
high shifts east with an evolving southerly flow. Some fog out on
the lake so an advisory may eventually be needed should overall
coverage increase. Southerly flow increases on Saturday. As a
surface low approaches on Saturday expect winds up to 30 knots
across the lake. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for
Saturday afternoon and night. Rounds of rain and thunderstorms are
also expected before the front pushes through Sunday afternoon
and evening. Winds will also decrease and shift to the west to
northwest into Monday.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Boxell
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Boxell
Saturday night through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 9 mi84 min Calm G 1.9 68°F 1020.3 hPa
45013 17 mi34 min Calm G 1.9 66°F 62°F1019.5 hPa
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 22 mi24 min ESE 7 G 7 66°F
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 34 mi64 min S 1.9 G 2.9 67°F 1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI11 mi89 minESE 310.00 miFair70°F62°F78%1019.3 hPa
Milwaukee-Timmerman, WI13 mi79 minE 410.00 miClear73°F60°F65%1019.3 hPa
Waukesha County Airport, WI23 mi79 minESE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F78%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmSE3SE4SE5E5E4SE6SE6SE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S4S4S4CalmS3SW6W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmSE7E4NE3Calm
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S8S4S7S7E8E9SE9SE7SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.