Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fair Haven, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 11:46 PM EST (04:46 UTC) Moonrise 2:57PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1249 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
This afternoon..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north. Snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202101262215;;529761 FZUS51 KBUF 261749 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1249 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-262215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fair Haven, NY
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location: 43.32, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 270253 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 953 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure will move across New York state overnight and then exit into southern New England on Wednesday. Snow will taper off to snow showers overnight with colder air building into the region behind the system. The pattern turns colder for the rest of the week and into the weekend with a chance for a little lake effect snow.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. At 9 p.m. low pressure was centered just south of Rochester. Colder air aloft has moved in behind this system, with colder cloud tops better supporting dendritic snow growth. As a result, precipitation is mainly snow west of Rochester. There's still patchy freezing drizzle south and east of Rochester, which will change over to snow during the next couple hours.

Otherwise, steady snow will continue east of Lake Ontario late this evening before tapering off to snow showers after midnight. Meanwhile, the northwesterly flow behind the departing low will push moisture across western Lake Ontario across the Niagara Frontier which will produce a final round of upslope enhanced snow late this evening and into the early morning hours. Additional snow accumulation will be modest, with maybe another inch across Western New York, and 1-2 inches east of Lake Ontario.

On Wednesday, northerly flow of cold moist air will upslope and maintain plenty of low clouds. A cap around 5kft though will limit lake snow accumulations. There will be fairly steady snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario which will taper off and become more scattered in nature by Wednesday afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Arctic front slips through Thursday with H850T falling to -18/-20C over the course of the day. With ongoing CAA and support from a mid- level shortwave dropping southeast through the NW'erly flow, scattered lake effect snow showers will then become more numerous with some accumulating snows Thursday night. Shortwave trough departs to our southeast and then out to sea on Friday. Subsidence in its wake and a drier air mass filtering in will then limit lake effect snows Friday with diminishing returns. Lake snows finally wrap up Friday night with sfc high pressure build southeast into the Lower Lakes overnight.

Otherwise, cold both days with highs anticipated in the teens Thursday areawide. A bit colder Friday with single digits expected across the North Country, teens elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Light lake effect snow will continue Saturday morning with temperatures at 850 hPa in the negative teens. Northerly flow will favor areas along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline . with perhaps a few flurries early southeast of Lake Erie before surface high pressure and a drier airmass crosses into our region. The light winds will restrict any accumulations closer to the shorelines.

The 12Z GFS, and the better half of their ensemble members continue to not be as strong with this surface high pressure when compared to the 12Z deterministic of the ECMWF and Canadian. Will favor the stronger surface high pressure with this forecast package . which will delay the approaching mid level trough and surface low and its associated precipitation until Sunday night and Monday.

The slower arrival of this trough will allow for another chilly night Saturday night with temperatures east of Lake Ontario dropping well below 0F and single digit lows common across WNY.

It will not be as cold Monday and Tuesday of next week with ample cloud cover around.

AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Mainly IFR flight conditions at TAF sites at 03Z, mainly due to low cigs and snow east of Lake Ontario. Expect a final burst of snow south of Lake Ontario through around 08Z in the northwesterly upslope enhanced flow behind low pressure departing eastward across New York state. Otherwise, expect mainly IFR flight conditions due to low cigs through around 12Z.

Wednesday morning will start of with a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions, but snow will taper off and cigs will lift leaving mainly MVFR flight conditions by Wednesday afternoon.

Outlook .

Thursday . MVFR/VFR with a chance of snow showers. Friday . MVFR conditions with the likelihood of lake snow showers. Saturday . Mainly VFR but MVFR possible early in Rochester. Sunday . VFR.

MARINE. Low pressure will move across New York state overnight. High pressure remaining to the north of the Great Lakes will result in a period of stronger east- northeast winds on the lakes, which requires small craft headlines for most of Lake Ontario. Small craft headlines then drop off from west to east Wednesday morning. Following a brief break Wednesday afternoon, northwest winds will pick up again Wednesday night.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ005>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ001>004-010-011-014. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LOZ044.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/RSH NEAR TERM . Apffel/RSH SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . Thomas AVIATION . Apffel/RSH MARINE . Apffel/RSH/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 14 mi527 min SE 7 G 15 26°F 1009 hPa (-2.8)24°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 47 mi527 min E 16 G 18 28°F 1007.5 hPa (-2.3)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 49 mi527 min 29°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY17 mi53 minSE 63.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist27°F24°F89%1008.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3E6E5E4E4E3SE546E6SE8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE3SE4SE3S3CalmSE5SE43CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--
2 days agoNW6NW8NW6NW8NW5NW3N4E5CalmCalmS3CalmNW7NW11NW6N6NW6NW5W4S3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.