Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kennebunkport, ME

KEY MESSAGES
1. Heavy snowfall rates of greater than 1 inch per hour likely this evening. A widespread 3-7 inch snowfall is expected, with the highest amounts likely in the MidCoast.

2. Seasonable temperatures follow the system for the end of the week and into the weekend.

3. A potential system late this weekend and early next week has trended further south over recent model runs, but remains an item of interest at this time.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 Discussion...

Tonight's snowfall event remains on track. Heavy snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are likely across New Hampshire by the early evening hours, and spreads into Maine through the remainder of the evening. Overall most of the accumulation from this system looks like it will fall this evening and into the early overnight hours. The inverted trough we have been watching looks most likely to set up just east of Penobscot Bay, keeping the higher totals to Downeast.

With that in mind, there will still be plenty of snow for an advisory event tonight across the area. The heavy rate of the snowfall this evening will bring quickly evolving impacts, even though snowfall total will be less than other events we've seen this winter. A widespread 3-6 inches of snow looks likely across much of the area, with some locally higher amounts possible through the hillier terrain of the MidCoast.

Most of the snow ends shortly after midnight across New Hampshire, except north of the Whites where snow showers continue into the day on Wednesday. Snow then ends across most of Maine through the predawn hours overnight. The exception looks to be through the MidCoast and around Penobscot Bay, where light snow likely lingers into the day on Wednesday in the vicinity of the inverted trough. Again, the main focus of the accumulating snow associated with the trough looks to be just of east of Penobscot Bay, but periods of light snow can be expected to linger into the daytime Wednesday through the MidCoast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 Discussion...

Following the system, seasonable temps and mainly dry conditions follow for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Highs generally range from the mid to upper 20s across the north, to mid to upper 30s across the south.
Nighttime lows remain seasonably cool as high pressure brings favorable radiational cooling conditions most nights. Lingering clouds and a northerly breeze likely keep temps up Wednesday night. Then Thursday night through at least Saturday night lows in the single digits and teens can be expected, with below zero readings possible across the northern valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3 Discussion...

Attention then turns toward a potential system for Sunday and Monday. Models and ensemble members have trended further south with this system since yesterday. However, from this far out we'll continue to monitor broad trends rather than individual model runs over the coming days as the pattern remains favorable for cyclogenesis.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Snow quickly brings IFR conditions this evening from west to east. Improvement to MVFR then VFR is likely at MHT, CON, PSM, and PWM late tonight through early Wednesday morning.
Improvement to MVFR is more likely at LEB, HIE, AUG, and RKD, and persists much of the day Wednesday. VFR returns to most terminals tomorrow night, except HIE where MVFR ceilings likely linger through Thursday in upslope flow.

Thursday Night-Sunday AM: VFR prevails.

Sunday - Monday: Restrictions with snow are possible. Should the storm miss to the south, VFR would prevail.

MARINE
A brief period of SCA conditions in southerly flow are likely tonight across outer waters. These ease through midday Wednesday, then SCA conditions in northwesterly flow are likely Wednesday night through Thursday night as low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes. High pressure then builds across the waters into late week, with conditions mostly below SCA levels late week and into the weekend.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for NHZ001>004-006-010.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NHZ005- 007>009-011>015.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.