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FXUS61 KBTV 282126 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Scattered snow showers and gusty winds will diminish tonight as a weak cold front exits the region. Aside from some lake- effect snow showers in the St. Lawrence Valley on Wednesday, mainly dry conditions are expected until Friday when chances of widespread light rain and snow increase. A more substantial weather system is possible early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 426 PM EST Tuesday...Main impactful weather is occurring early in the period with otherwise largely cold and quiet weather expected. Scattered snow showers will continue through early evening while gradually shifting south and east of the region as a weak surface cold front passes through. It's been an interesting afternoon meteorologically as we have a lot of ingredients for snow squalls except for a strong front; dry road temperatures are near or above freezing, instability is high for a winter event with CAPE values in the 75 to locally 150 J/kg range, and deep mixing is occurring with inverted V soundings showing momentum transport supportive of gusts upwards of 30 MPH. An SPS was issued to bring attention to potential impacts to travel; however, since snow intensity is largely unimpressive due to poor surface convergence, the coverage of squall-like snow will be rather isolated, found in only the most intense cells.

Abundant dry air aloft and highly unblocked flow tonight will limit snow accumulations overnight, with up to a few inches in the mountains and mainly a coating or less elsewhere.
Temperatures should settle down into the teens to locally single digits as the core of the post-frontal cold air slides overhead by daybreak featuring 850 millibar temperatures as low as 17 below zero Celsius, or just above zero Fahrenheit a few thousand feet above ground. Southwesterly flow will develop during the day and a lake response is expected off of Lake Ontario with ample instability. The resulting snow band will lift into St.
Lawrence County and weaken with time, but light snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches in western and southern portions of the county are expected tomorrow night. Highest probabilities of steadier snow appears to be during the nighttime hours as low level southwest flow intensifies transporting better moisture through the valley. Temperatures across northern New York into Vermont will stay near or below freezing tomorrow, although expect somewhat less cold readings (nearly 10 degrees milder) tomorrow night given continued moderation of the air mass on south to southwest winds.



SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 346 PM EST Tuesday...Any lingering Lake effect showers in St.
Lawrence County will end quickly on Thursday as increased temperatures and wind shear make conditions for lake effect precipitation unfavorable. Southwest flow will help with warm advection so temperatures should rise to the upper 30s and 40s during the day Thursday, remaining warmer than seasonal averages overnight, and warming further, upper 30s to mid 40s for Friday.
There should be a little sun as well. Winds will be a bit gusty overnight with a southwesterly low level jet moving over the region.
Winds should be enhanced over the route 11 corridor a little, but a weak inversion should prevent some of the higher winds from mixing down. A cold front moves into the region on Friday but it will be weakening so it should only bring a few showers at first. A weak low will ride along it late Friday into Friday night, with the center looking to pass just off the New England coast. There is pretty high confidence with relatively low precipitation amounts with QPF totals likely being a half inch or lower. There looks to be a sharp precipitation gradient somewhere over the North Country. The GFS is continuing to bring precipitation all the way to the international border while the Euro has it only reach southern areas; opted for a blended approach keeping lighter amounts towards the international border and more modest amounts for central and southern Vermont.
The storm looks to be mostly rain in the valleys and snow at higher elevations with the highest snowfall totals currently looking to be in the Southern Greens with up to 4" possible and favoring amounts more in the 1-3 inch range.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 346 PM EST Tuesday...The main event in this period will be a potentially more impactful storm system. There is still high uncertainty of the details and timing of the storm with the EPS favoring heavier precipitation and more snow while the GEFS favors lighter precipitation and more rain. However, many of the GEFS members have a stronger low with more snow toward mid week. As such, model consensus is that there will be a period of precipitation, but whether or not it will be on the colder side remains questionable.

Models depict a longwave trough digging down over the middle part of the country over the weekend and a shortwave will rotate along it as the longwave moves east. Best guidance places the shortwave passing through the region Sunday night into Monday. All the models generally attempt to form a low off the New England coast during this time period, but its strength and track are very uncertain. The Euro strengthens the storm the most and the ensemble members are somewhat agreement, with the EPS probability of 6 or more inches of snow being over 50 percent. However, the GEFS probabilities are less than 10 percent for the Sunday night storm. When the time period increased until Wednesday to take into account the timing differences and possible subsequent storm, the EURO probabilities rise to 70-80 percent of seeing 6 or more inches while the GEFS probabilities rise to about 30 percent. In summary, there is the possibility for impactful snow Sunday night into Monday, but will be tied closely to storm track and whether or not moisture/cold air remains over the North Country.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period with occasional reductions in ceilings to MVFR and visibility to MVFR/IFR in scattered snow showers.
Precipitation chances will wane after 00Z. Timing and location of these showers is difficult to forecast, but recent observational trends show RUT likely being impacted most frequently. Temporary IFR conditions are also likely at MPV and EFK, with some chances as well at PBG and BTV. Winds will be sustained at 8-15kts with gusts 16-25kt, abating towards 06Z, with WSW winds trending WNW through 00Z behind a weak cold front. After 12Z winds 5-10 kts will become more southwesterly or southerly.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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