NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 804 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
.gale warning in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning...
Tonight..S wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 3 ft at 9 seconds. Haze and patchy smoke after midnight.
Sat..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell nw 3 ft at 10 seconds. Haze in the morning. Chance of rain through the day.
Sat night..S wind 5 to 15 kt...backing to se 5 to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 4 to 5 ft at 9 seconds. Rain likely.
Sun..SE wind 5 to 15 kt...becoming S 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. SWell nw 4 to 5 ft. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 30 kt. Wind waves 9 to 12 ft. SWell nw 2 ft. Rain.
Mon..S wind 30 kt...becoming 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 9 to 12 ft...subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. W swell 2 ft...building to 7 to 8 ft in the afternoon. SWell less than 2 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S wind 20 to 25 kt...easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 7 ft. SWell W 11 to 12 ft. Rain.
Tue..S wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. SWell W 13 to 14 ft.
Wed..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...becoming S 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 11 ft. SWell less than 2 ft.

PZZ300 804 Pm Pdt Fri Sep 22 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Relatively calm conditions will continue into Saturday. A strong front will move towards the waters Saturday night, with south winds increasing rapidly Sunday and remaining strong through Sunday night. The front moves inland Monday morning with winds gradually diminishing, but a fresh west heavy swell will quickly move into the waters behind it.

FXUS66 KMFR 230552 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 845 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023

.Updated aviation discussion.

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery is showing some clouds moving across southern Oregon and soon to be northern California with some marine stratus at the coast and offshore. Otherwise, the area remains cloud-free. For the Rogue Valley, the smoke from area wildfires decided to have one last hurrah before the winds come and blow it away and the rains come this weekend, and it has brought visibility down to 5 miles. Many areas west of the Cascades may see intermittent smoke concerns. While Oregon Department of Environmental Quality's air quality advisory only exists for Curry County, they have great tips for beating the smoke on their smoke blog: www.oregonsmoke.org.

AVIATION
23/06Z TAFs...Onshore flow has resulted in marine stratus along much of the southern Oregon and northern California coasts, with a mixture of IFR and MVFR conditions being reported.
This will last at least through mid-morning Saturday. Model soundings and guidance are both indicating a bit of up and down in ceilings and visibilities, but the general trend is a possible decrease in ceiling height over the night, before we see them rise slightly early Saturday. Overcast skies continue at the coast with a front approaching the area, likely coming onshore around 21-00Z.
Leaning towards a period of VFR based on the HRRR, but MVFR ceilings could continue.

Inland, the marine stratus will makes it's way into the Coquille Basin but we're not expecting it to make it much further inland, with VFR conditions continuing away from the coast.

In terms of smoke, hazy skies will continue across the area west of the Cascades. Models indicate surface visibilities will stay good.
Mid-to-high level clouds will increase ahead of the cold front, with light precipitation in Roseburg expected towards 04/05Z before the front breaks up. -CSP

MARINE
Updated 800 PM September 22, 2023...Relatively calm conditions are expected to last through Saturday, with variable light winds tonight and light to moderate southerly winds Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the area.

A strong storm for this time of the year will begin to take shape Saturday night with a surface low deepening near 140W and 45N, moving northeast Sunday, then more northerly Sunday night.
Meanwhile, a strong occluded front (for this time of the year) will approach the waters Sunday with south winds increasing quickly during the morning Sunday, with gales likely staring late Sunday morning and lasting through at least Sunday night, for which a Gale Warning is in effect. Additionally, there's some evidence supporting occasional storm force winds Sunday night with 925 mb winds getting close to 75 kts.

One thing to note: prior to the gales, there will be a period of small craft conditions in the outer waters Sunday morning.

The front will move inland Monday morning and winds will gradually diminish below gales. However, a fresh swell will quickly follow the passage of the front late Monday morning, with west swells peaking out close to 16 feet at 14 seconds Tuesday, so we could be dealing with Hazardous Seas Warning conditions once gales end from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

By mid week, the ECMWF shows another front approaching the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while the GFS shows a surface low developing just outside of 130W and moving northwest into the waters later Tuesday night. Either solution typically results in at least small craft conditions and possibly gales. The ensemble members at this point don't shed any light regarding the exact details. Bottom line: there is still plenty of time to address this and the details on this are likely to change.

In the meantime, the main concern will be the first strong front Sunday into Sunday night. -Petrucelli/CSP

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 301 PM PDT Fri Sep 22 2023/

DISCUSSION...A brief period between low pressure systems will define conditions to start the weekend. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels today, with low 80s in west side valleys and mid 60s along the Oregon coast and areas east of the Cascades. Winds will turn to be from the southwest, which is expected to push smoke from the Smith River Complex and Anvil fires over Curry, Josephine, and Jackson counties through tonight and Saturday. Periods of moderate to high smoke concentration are possible in these counties, especially closer to the fires.

A warm front associated with an upper level low pressure system will reach the Oregon coast by Saturday morning bringing rainfall to coastal areas through the weekend. Initial rain amounts are expected to be light through Saturday with higher amounts through Sunday.
Overall, rainfall totals for the weekend will stay below an inch for the coast and decreasing inland.

The system will push moisture across northern California and southern Oregon through Monday and Tuesday, bringing substantial rainfall to areas west of the Cascades. Monday will bring the heaviest rainfall, with southerly flow bringing an expected 2 to 3 inches of rain to the Oregon coast south of Cape Blanco. Other west side areas look to get between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain, while areas along the east side of the Cascades will get between 0.2 and 0.4 inches. While rainfall will continue over most areas through Tuesdays, the amounts are much lower.

This amount of rainfall is bringing some flooding concerns near local burn scars. This is the first major rain of the season, and loose debris over hydrophobic areas could flow over roads and into streams. A Flood Watch is in place from Sunday at 5 PM through Monday at 8 PM. The watch covers areas where debris flow are a concern, including around the Tyee Ridge, Anvil, and Head fires.
Additionally, localized water accumulation or road ponding may be an issue anywhere with poor drainage, or drainage clogged with debris. Use extra care traveling around areas of accumulated or standing water.

Winds are going to be a concern Sunday afternoon into Monday evening. The highest winds will affect Oregon coast headlands south of and including Cape Blanco, with sustained wind speeds of 30-40 mph and gusts of over 50 mph possible in these areas through the day Monday. The Shasta Valley is expected to see similar wind speeds. A High Wind Watch is in place for coastal areas expected to see the highest winds from Sunday at 2 PM through Monday at 5 AM, and for the Shasta Valley from Sunday at 2 PM through Monday at 5 PM.
Areas east of the Cascades are also expected to see strong winds Monday afternoon and evening, and should the forecast trend similarly, a wind advisory may be needed (including for the Morgan fire).

There is some uncertainty in the forecast past Tuesday. A weak front associated with the low pressure system looks to bring another round of light rain to the Oregon coast, then a new system is expected to approach the area late next week. Ensemble outcomes from the EC model are on whether or not the system will linger and bring more rain. The GFS ensemble is more pessimistic overall, although a handful of outcomes do show more light rain to mark the start of October. -TAD

FIRE WEATHER
Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, September 22, 2023
Dry conditions with warmer, but still below normal, temperatures are expected through Saturday along with breezy afternoons. Minimum humidities will remain low, but not critically low, so we aren't anticipating any critical fire weather conditions through the forecast period.

The attention turns to a large scale trough expected to arrive Sunday and influence the weather through at least the middle of next week. Strong gusty winds are expected ahead of and with the arrival of this trough, but humidities will be increasing at the same time.
Widespread wetting rainfall is expected late Sunday into Monday, which will be moderate to heavy at times west of the Cascades.
Rainfall is expected east of the Cascades as well, but amounts will be significantly less...generally 0.25"-0.40" for fire weather zones 624 and eastern 284, and a tenth of an inch of less across the Modoc and fire weather zone 625. Given the relatively hefty precipitation amounts (1" to 3") expected over the ongoing fires, debris flows and/or landslides are a concern and a Flood Watch is in effect most of these burn scars. This includes the Flat fire, Anvil fire, Tyee Complex, Smith River Complex, the Head fire and the McKinney burn scar from 2022.

Deep upper troughing remains over the area Tuesday with cool and showery weather continuing through much of next week. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for ORZ021>024.

High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for ORZ021-022.

CA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ080-081.

High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Sunday to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356- 370-376.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Reedsport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:32 AM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:43 AM PDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:57 PM PDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:53 PM PDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:17 AM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:28 AM PDT     4.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:42 PM PDT     3.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:38 PM PDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Medford, OR,