Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hilton, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Lake enhanced and upslope snows will slowly diminish southeast- south of the lakes today, with some lingering snow showers or flurries tonight.

2) A passing clipper system will bring light accumulating snowfall Friday night, particularly east of Lake Ontario.

3) Warmer temperatures are expected next week with increasing chances for rain and movement of ice on area creeks and streams by midweek.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lake enhanced and upslope snows will slowly diminish southeast-south of the lakes today, with some lingering snow showers or flurries tonight.

Ongoing upslope snows east of Lake Ontario will continue through this morning. Have extended the Winter Weather Advisories for Jefferson, Lewis, and Oswego county where an additional 2-4" will be possible, especially across the Tug Hill region and Lewis county.

Elsewhere...a cold, moist cyclonic flow will support lake enhanced and upslope snows across the region through this morning. Additional snowfall accumulations will be light overall, with 1-3" possible in spots. Depleting moisture with drier air working into the mid- levels by this afternoon will help to diminish snow shower coverage across the region
After that
we should see much improved conditions but a few lingering snow showers or flurries will still be possible through the evening hours.

Surface based ridging over the Ohio Valley will nose in over the region tonight through the day Friday. We should see drier weather but continued cold conditions with Max T's mainly in the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A passing clipper system will bring light accumulating snowfall Friday night, particularly east of Lake Ontario.

A shortwave trough will dive southeast across the length of Ontario Province Friday while weakly interacting with a compact closed low retrograding across Quebec. This will force a weak wave of surface low pressure to track across Lake Ontario and squarely into New York State, which will in turn result in light to locally modest snow spreading into the region Friday night into early Saturday. Still a fair amount of uncertainty in the western extent of the precipitation shield as the track of the shortwave will likely place WNY under the right-exit region of the mid level jet. Thus, general model consensus favors minimal (if any) accumulation across the western Finger Lakes and points westward. 850mb temperatures also a bit too warm to have a significant contribution of instability from the lakes.

Across the eastern Lake Ontario region, which would be on the other side of the jet maxima, accumulating snowfall is significantly more likely though the quick-moving low should limit the residence time of stronger forcing. Greatest accumulations on the order of 1-3" or 2-4" will likely be found where upslope enhancement comes into play across the Tug Hill and Western Dacks. NBM probabilities for 2" or greater snow for the surrounding lower elevations, including the Watertown Metro, is only about 15-30%.

Light snow and/or a few upslope driven flurries may linger through Saturday morning, particularly east and southeast of Lake Ontario, though the weak intensity paired with the relatively steep February sun angle should further mitigate any further impacts. A thermal ridge with strengthening high pressure building over the eastern Great Lakes should taper off any lingering activity by the afternoon hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warmer temperatures are expected next week with increasing chances for rain and movement of ice on area creeks and streams by midweek.

Following a period of quasi-zonal upper level flow across the Great lakes early next week, a strengthening upper level ridge will shift off the East Coast by midweek. Further west, a strengthening area of low pressure will likely emerge over the Northern Plains and/or Midwest regions, which will then track eastward into the Great Lakes. This pattern shift will result in a gradual warming trend which will begin over the weekend and likely continue through midweek next week. Chances for precipitation will increase by midweek as well, and while there remains uncertainty in ptype east of Lake Ontario, further west plain rain will be heavily favored.

Temperatures should already average above normal starting Saturday, though by early next week, high temperatures will be topping out in the low 40s in most areas south of Lake Ontario. While temperature trends and QPF will be heavily dictated by the track of the aforementioned low to the west, this will be likely be enough of a warmup to push the thawing degree hours well over 300 for most, if not all of the forecast area. Far too soon to determine specific hydrological impacts, but at least some breaking up and movement of ice on area waterways is anticipated. Will need to monitor the potential for ice jams as the details become clearer in future forecast updates.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A cold, moist cyclonic flow will support lake enhanced and upslope snows southeast and south of the lakes through the morning hours.
Expect MVFR to IFR conditions at area terminals impacted by the snows. As moisture begins to wane we should see an improvement with snows diminishing, this will allow for VFR to becoming more predominate by the afternoon hours.

Tonight...lingering upslope clouds will support MVFR-IFR cigs across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier, to include KJHW. All other terminals will see mainly VFR.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR, but restrictions possible in snow showers late Friday and early Saturday, especially east of Lake Ontario.

Sunday and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Winds will slowly weaken as we move through the morning hours with the gradient relaxing across the region. The next chance for small craft conditions will arrive for Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as a clipper low dives south toward the lakes.
Surface high pressure builds into the Lower Lakes Saturday afternoon bringing lighter winds through Saturday night. Another fast moving clipper dives towards the region Sunday which may bring a brief period of near Small Craft conditions.

Please note...Most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters are now ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ004-005.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ040- 041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ043-044.