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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 545 Pm Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 pm est this evening through late Monday night...
Tonight..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms early, then showers. A chance of showers late. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds early. Waves 2 feet or less building to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow and rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 032346 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will lift across Lake Ontario and up the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Colder air in the wake of the system will then encourage the leftover showery precipitation to mix with some snow at times through Monday night. Only negligible snow accumulations are anticipated though with NO real impacts.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A strong mid-level shortwave and sfc low will track across the area this evening and tonight with showers and some embedded rumbles of thunder lifting northeast through the CWA. SVR threat has waned.

After that...somewhat colder air will then wrap in across the region under cyclonic flow late tonight. This will likely transition any remaining precipitation over to a mix of rain and snow. With temps at low inversion top of -4c or -5c (lake temps of 45F (7C)) and combined with remaining synoptic moisture, we might just see some some lake enhanced rain/snow showers on WSW flow.

On Monday, cold air deepens enough to switch mixed rain/snow showers to snow atop the highest terrain east of both lakes. Showers may get a boost in organization, coverage as well as another shortwave trough crosses. Greatest coverage for the showers will be on the higher terrain east and eventually southeast of the lakes. Though temps aloft are cooling, they are still on the marginal side for much sticking snow at the sfc. Tug Hill/western Dacks will have afternoon readings in the 30-32f range so may see an inch or so of new snow there. Otherwise, readings in the mid to upper 30s will keep the snow in the air and not on the ground.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A shortwave trough will move across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday evening. A cool, westerly flow will remain over the relatively warm Lakes, however temperatures aloft are marginal especially across Lake Erie. An increase in ascent and moisture ahead of the shortwave trough will likely cause an uptick in shower activity across western NY Monday evening before moisture moves east and subsidence increases across the region. Rain and snow showers will diminish and become confined to the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. A coating is possible on some hilltops. Colder air will be in place across the eastern Lake Ontario basin, however similarly to showers east of Lake Erie, diminishing moisture and increasing subsidence will cause showers to diminish east-southeast of Lake Ontario through Tuesday morning.

A clipper system will move southwest of the region Tuesday through Tuesday night. Increasing moisture from the southwest will increase chances for rain and snow showers across the western Southern Tier.
Not expecting impactful weather with very light amounts and temperatures in the mid to upper 30s by Tuesday afternoon. Behind this system cool, westerly flow will persist and a few light snow showers are possible Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will nose into the region Wednesday through Wednesday night. A few snow showers remain possible but impactful weather is not expected.
Wednesday will be the coldest weather of the stretch with highs in the low to mid 30s. Wednesday night lows will fall to the teens east of Lake Ontario to the low 20s across western NY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Thursday and Thursday night surface-based ridging will slide off to our southeast...while a broad/loosely organized surface low makes its way across the northern Plains states. In between these two systems a broad swath of southwesterly low level flow and warm advection will overspread our area...with the latter being marked by the passage of a warm frontal zone across much of the area by later Thursday night. Associated deeper moisture and weak to modest isentropic ascent will bring a general chance of snow and rain showers to our area Thursday...with pcpn chances then diminishing from southwest to northeast Thursday night following the passage of the warm front
As for temps
the beginnings of the warm advection regime will allow Thursday's highs to recover to the upper 20s-mid 30s east and to the upper 30s-lower 40s west...with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday evening then giving way to steady or slowly rising readings later Thursday night.

On Friday the surface low will lift to a position just north of Lake Superior...while edging the warm frontal zone a bit further northeast into the Saint Lawrence Valley. Still can't completely rule out a few additional rain and snow showers across the North Country as the warm front tries to slowly exit to the northeast...
while elsewhere drying and building heights/subsidence aloft in the wake of the boundary should result in mainly dry conditions. With a progressively milder airmass continuing to spread across our region...highs on Friday will climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the North Country and to the mid to upper 40s elsewhere.
Across far western New York...some 50-degree readings will even be possible within areas of favored southerly/south-southwesterly downslope flow.

After that...the broad surface low and its parent northern stream mid-level trough look to push northeastward to the vicinity of Hudson Bay through next weekend...while a southern stream trough crosses the Rockies/southern Plains and induces surface cyclogenesis over the south-central states by Saturday as it impinges upon the cold front trailing southward from the northern stream system. From that point forward...the subsequent evolution of this latter system remains very much in question as the medium range guidance continues to exhibit considerable variance in the extent and timing of any phasing of energy from the northern and southern streams...which in turn will have a direct impact on the strength and track of the surface low. Possible solutions at this point range from a more strongly phased and deeper system crossing our area during Sunday...
to a much weaker/more progressive system (essentially just a wavy frontal boundary) passing through between later Saturday and Saturday night. With this uncertainty in mind have just indicated a gradual increase in PoPs for the last couple days of this period...
while also keeping these capped in the chance range for now. As for temps...we can expect these to remain on the rather mild side until this second system passes through our longitude...with temps then starting to pull back at least some afterward (with this happening anytime between later next weekend and early in the following week).

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Low pressure will pass through the region with showers and embedded thunder prompting localized restrictions at area terminals this evening into tonight.

Tonight, colder air wrapping in behind the passing storm system will encourage the pcpn to at least mix with some snow showers at times.
Meanwhile...CIGS will remain low at MVFR to IFR levels for most areas.

Outlook...
Monday...MVFR/IFR cigs in scattered rain and snow showers.
Tuesday...Areas of MVFR in mixed rain/wet snow showers.
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow showers.
Friday...VFR/MVFR. A small chance of rain and snow showers.

MARINE
Fresh northeasterlies on Lake Ontario will support small craft advisories for the nearshore waters west of Sodus Bay. This area of SCA's has been extended through Monday evening to account for similarly strong westerlies that will develop in the wake of low pressure lifting along the St. Lawrence River tonight.

In fact...winds throughout the Lower Great Lakes will significantly freshen tonight through at least Monday...so new SCA's remain up Lake Erie nearshore waters as well as the remaining nearshore marine zones on Lake Ontario. Wind gusts will reach 30kts on Lake Erie at times during this period...while gale force gusts will be possible on LaKe Ontario...especially over the open waters.

High pressure over the mid western states Monday evening will then gradually build across the Lower Great Lakes late Monday night and Tuesday. This will allow winds and waves to subside to well below SCA thresholds.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ042-043.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ044.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Monday for LOZ045.

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