NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS61 KBTV 031946 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 346 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week with potential for exceeding daily high temperature records through Thursday. Precipitation chances increase Friday through Saturday night with a cold front bringing widespread rain. Unsettled weather and shower chances continue as temperatures trend much cooler heading into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 345 PM EDT Tuesday...Surface and upper level ridges will build over our region through Wednesday night. Temperatures will be warmest on Wed when both ridges will crest over the north country, then begin to slide eastward. Skies will also be mainly clear through the timeframe, helping the daytime highs increase to record levels, and also encouraging fog formation overnight.
Expect fog in the typically fog prone spots for both tonight and Wednesday night. Even with clearing skies are minimum temperatures will remain mild.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 341 PM EDT Tuesday...A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather, leading to dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures. Highs will again be in the 80s in the valleys and 70s elsewhere, but they will still be a few degrees lower than Wednesday. Increasing southerly winds should keep the boundary layer mixed overnight and prevent fog from forming. This will also keep overnight temperatures well above average, much closer to the average high temperatures than the average low temperatures. Lows in the valleys look to be as high as the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 341 PM EDT Tuesday...Friday looks to be the last day of the above average temperatures and dry weather as a cold front approaches the region. However, the front is looking to move in later than previously forecasted so the day on Friday should be dry outside of parts of northern New York. The front will slowly move through over the weekend and low pressure will develop along it. Ensemble means place between 1-2 inches of rain across the region, but most models have specific areas receiving more than 3 inches of rain. Therefore, the WPC put a large piece of the area in a slight risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday.
After the front moves through, an upper level low looks to stall over the region for the beginning of next week, leading to an extended period of cloudy skies and showers. Temperatures should be well below average with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
There is increasing confidence that 850 mb temperatures will fall below freezing for a bit of time at the start of next week with the GEFS and Euro ensemble probabilities above 80 percent.
Therefore, it will be increasingly likely that the high peaks will receive their first snow showers of the season at the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 18Z Wednesday...High pressure will keep conditions VFR through the day with a smattering of cirrus clouds this evening.
Fog potential after 06Z Wednesday will rise with MPV/SLK being the most likely terminals to degrade to IFR, but also possible at EFK. BTV will likely remain VFR, but fog on the Winooski River may encroach on the airfield if an easterly drainage wind develops. EFK/MSS could see some fog development as well, but there is less certainty at this time. RUT should have a drainage southeasterly wind overnight preventing fog development. VFR conditions will redevelop after 12z or 13z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Daily maximum temperature record and forecast (in parentheses) Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-03 82(83)|1891 82(79)|1967 83(82)|1953 85(80)|1967 86(80)|1941 10-04 82(83)|1891 80(81)|2017 82(84)|1951 82(81)|1967 80(82)|1951 10-05 82(82)|1926 82(78)|1951 85(82)|1991 80(79)|2005 83(78)|1951

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Troy
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:07 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:42 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:14 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:03 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Troy, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Albany
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:56 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:34 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:04 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:55 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Albany, New York, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Burlington, VT,