Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wallingford, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 143 AM EST Friday...Upslope snow showers are continuing across the northern Greens and Adirondacks, and these will persist into the day today. Model guidance has trended in keeping both the snow showers and deeper moisture well into the day today, and now it may not be until this evening that they finally taper off in the most favored spots, notably around Jay Peak. Several more inches are expected in parts of the northern Greens while accumulation's will be lighter across the Adirondacks. Strong winds are also accompanying these snow showers, with gusts in the 20 to 35 mph range. These will very gradually lighten up during the rest of tonight and tomorrow. Despite the strong winds, there is no cold air advection as modified marine air has been wrapping around the center of the low situated over Atlantic Canada. The airmass is slightly warmer over Quebec as warm Atlantic air has advected in off easterly flow, despite slightly colder surface temperatures. This airmass is also the source of the moisture providing the plentiful amounts of upslope snow.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 143 AM EST Friday...Drier conditions should prevail tonight and early tomorrow as subtle ridging builds in, but there will still be large scale troughing, so clouds and winds will stick around. The dry weather will not last long as another clipper moves down from the northwest for later Saturday and Sunday. It will be weak and moisture starved, but it should bring a few periods of light snow to most areas. Southwesterly flow ahead of its passage will bring some lake effect to St. Lawrence County, where a few inches are possible in the most favored areas. There could be a few heavier convective snow showers there as well. A very modified arctic airmass moves into the region late Sunday. Some of the lingering Atlantic heat/moisture, and heat from the unfrozen Hudson Bay and Great lakes will keep temperatures much warmer here than over the Midwest.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 143 AM EST Friday...A significant pattern change is still anticipated by mid to late next week, as mid/upper lvl trof is replaced by building ridge and a much warmer Pacific airmass.
Initially much below normal temps prevail Sunday night thru Tuesday associated with trof axis directly overhead and 1044mb high pres centered over the MS River Valley. This produces a cold northerly flow acrs our fa with progged 850mb temps dropping btwn -17C and -20C on Sunday night, before slowly modifying Monday into Tues.
Given the position of the sfc high pres, expect gradient winds and clouds, which should prevent temps from completely bottoming out.
However, if sfc high pres builds directly overhead on Monday night and skies clear and winds become light trrn driven, with fresh snow pack, temps wl be well below zero in many spots. Have continued with high chc/likely pops on Sunday night into Monday associated with favorable moisture/thermal profiles and wind direction for upslope snow showers. Several inches of fluff is likely by midday Monday.
Highs are in the mid teens to mid 20s on Sunday, but only lower teens to near 20F for Monday.

As sfc high pres shifts off the East Coast by 00z Weds, brisk south/southwest flow develops at all layers of the atmosphere, as sfc low pres is located near Hudson Bay. A series of warm frnt wl lift acrs our region from late Tues thru Thursday with warming thermal profiles. Initially snow showers wl be possible with each boundary, but as 925mb to 850mb temps climb above 0C, a wintry mix to rain is likely late Weds into Thurs. Given the deep/cold snow pack, I have a feeling the cold air wl be stubborn to unlock east of the Greens for Weds/Thurs time frame, even with strong southerly flow and progged 925mb temps btwn 3C and 6C. Still plenty of uncertainty on magnitude and duration of warmup for mid to late week, with some guidance delaying or less aggressive than a few runs ago. For now have stuck close to the NBM for temps and pops, which support highs 30s on Weds and mid 30s to mid 40s by Thurs, with coolest readings east of the Greens. In addition, some precip is likely during this time frame with associated waa lift/moisture.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12Z Saturday...A weak piece of energy, combined with slightly better moisture is helping to enhance additional snow showers over the northern Dacks and parts of central/northern Greens this morning. Localized IFR conditions have redeveloped at SLK in light snow with vis btwn 1-2SM, which should continue thru 15/16z this morning. Also, expect intervals of IFR vis in light snow at MPV/EFK, while the rest of our sites stay mainly VFR. Winds remain from the west/northwest at 5 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 22 knots thru mid afternoon, before becoming under 6 knots by sunset. Mostly VFR conditions prevail overnight, except MVFR CIGS at SLK/MPV and EFK with brief IFR conditions possible at SLK btwn 04-08z due to lower clouds.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

MARINE
Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue into the day today. Sustained winds will generally range between 20-30 KTs, with higher gusts. The larger westerly component to the winds will limit waves a bit, but they will still generally be in the 1-4 foot range tonight. Winds eventually lower late Friday into Friday night, dropping into the 5-15 KT range. This will lower waves down to around 1 foot.

EQUIPMENT
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.