Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wells, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1041 AM EDT Thursday...No big changes for this update.
Light rain, with snow near and above 4,000 feet elevation, continues to be somewhat patchy and mainly remain out of northeastern Vermont as expected. Breezy southeast winds are present in much of the region, although wind speeds were lowered a bit in western portions of northern New York based on recent observations.

Previous Discussion...
Main change to the forecast for the near term through Friday is a trend for less QPF as model consensus is leaning toward a slightly more eastern track of low pressure off the New England coast. Morning satellite and upper air analysis shows one area of low pressure beginning to weaken over the eastern Great Lakes, while another low is developing offshore of the VA/NC border. The general idea of the coastal low continuing to deepen and becoming the primary low remains the same, but there has been a slight eastward shift in the track as it moves north to just west of the benchmark this afternoon, and over Cape Cod early Friday. In addition, blended hi-res guidance shows a more compact QPF field, with the heaviest precipitation staying east of the forecast area, which is a good thing. Still, after a generally dry morning, areas of rain should develop across much the region through the day, with the focus being on southeast upslope regions of the Adirondacks and central/southern Greens while locales along the Canadian border may stay mostly dry until this evening. Overnight into Friday morning precipitation focuses mainly across VT, eventually shifting east by mid-day before filling back in heading into Friday night.

Given the above, QPF amounts have been lowered from the previous forecast, generally offering a tenth to a third of an inch across central/northern zones, and a third to 3/4 of an inch central/south through Friday. Given cold mid/upper level temps of -2C to +2C at 850mb and 925 mb respectively, combined with zero sunshine, surface temperatures will remain very cold for late May through the period with highs only in the mid-40s to low-50s, and lows in the upper-30s to mid-40s. On the mountain summits though, temperatures will hover around freezing through the period, which should maintain snow as the dominant ptype, but warm soil temps should temper accumulations to 1-3" above 2000 feet.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 411 AM EDT Thursday...While the upper low finally shifts to northeast of our area into Northern ME, Saturday will continue to see cool and wet conditions throughout the day. Outside of the the southern valleys and the St. Lawrence Vally, most areas will struggle to get to 50 degrees as winds will be north to northwesterly most of the day. QPF for the day does not look significant, 0.10" across the Northern 'Dacks and less than that for other locations.With the early morning saturation of the vertical column up towards 500mb, early morning mist and drizzle seems likely.

The mid levels begin to dry in the late afternoon which should lead to drier conditions Saturday night which just some light lingering precipitation, mainly in the higher elevations. Saturday night lows will be in the 40s across the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 411 AM EDT Thursday...While Sunday looks see some lingering terrain driven showers during the day, temperatures finally begin to rebound closer towards seasonal normals with valleys seeing highs in the mid 60s and some periods of sunshine as well. A short wave through looks to move through on Memorial Day which could bring another round of some afternoon showers, though this looks to be less widespread than prior days. Beyond this point, the long term blocking pattern finally breaks down towards more zonal flow and warmer temperatures with the next chance for precipitation coming in the back half of next week. Highs next week look to be in the mid 60s to low 70s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 12Z Friday...VFR conditions across the region this morning will trend to a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings this afternoon and eventually widespread MVFR by midnight. Bands of light rain will occasionally lift through the region but based on upstream observations, visibility should remain VFR until later this afternoon/evening when they lower to MVFR, mainly at KRUT/KMPV/KEFK. Surface winds will generally be out of the southeast at 5-15kts with gusts upwards of 20kts, with areas of LLWS developing across southern and eastern Vermont after 00Z.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.