Friday, September25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:58PM Friday September 25, 2020 7:06 PM EDT (23:06 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202009251500;;338601 Fzus51 Kbuf 251133 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 731 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-251500- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 731 Am Edt Fri Sep 25 2020
Today..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less. The water temperature off rochester is 65 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 252109 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 509 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. Summer-like weather will last through the weekend and possibly even into Monday. However, a large pattern shift is expected next week. While the details remain a little uncertain, in general expect a cold front with rain showers, probably on Tuesday. This will be followed by much cooler and unsettled weather for second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. High pressure off the coast will guarantee fair dry weather through at least Saturday night.

Also, there may be some valley fog again tonight, but with a slightly drier low level air mass, slightly less subsidence, and low level SW flow (although it should be decoupled from the surface), dendritic valley fog should be a little less extensive overnight.

Temps will remain well above normal. Dry antecedent conditions so have aimed above most guidance by day.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High pressure will reside along the East Coast at the start of this forecast period. Throughout the day on Sunday, the high pressure will drift east into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will cross the northern portions of both the provinces of Ontario and Quebec. This atmospheric set up will allow for warm air to fill into the region and create breezy conditions starting in the afternoon in the Niagara Frontier. Temperatures on Sunday will rise up into the low 80s with a few locations along the the Genesee Valley and Northern Finger Lakes reaching up into the mid 80s.

There is a slight possibility for a few showers along the far northwestern edges of the Niagara Frontier Sunday night as the next upper level trough and jet streak approach the area. Additionally, some showers are possible along the far southwestern fringes of the forecast area as a shortwave, its associated jet streak and a narrow ribbon of moisture lift northeast across the southwestern portions of the state. Otherwise, dry conditions along with the warm conditions will prevail through the overnight hours Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Overall theme of this forecast period continues with a pattern shift from late summertime warmth to cool fall weather by next late week. And, looking beyond end of the forecast, a good signal showing up that another very chilly airmass will return to the lower Great Lakes by the first full weekend of October which will likely bring another round of frost/freeze headlines where the frost/freeze program has not already ended for the season.

Currently, models seem to be settling on the main cold frontal passage occurs sometime Tuesday. Ahead of front, forecast for Monday trends warmer and slightly drier for the first half of the day. Heading into Monday afternoon, lingering forcing from Sunday night system and/or approaching front combine with building instability to yield some scattered showers and isolated thunder (especially Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario) peaking in coverage during the afternoon. Highs increased into the lower 80s for Finger Lakes and Genesee Valley with middle to upper 70s elsewhere. Monday does not look as breezy as Sunday.

As the cold front works through Tuesday, temps gradually start to decline. Going with slower trend think Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario could see highs well into the 70s while western NY head toward 70F before cooler air arrives. Shower chances ramp up this timeframe, peaking in coverage and intensity Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as front is moving through and while cooler air (H85 temps down to +5c or so) begins to advect in. Southwest winds could get a bit gusty behind the front later Tuesday, but these post- frontal winds should stay below 30 mph as it stands now.

While Monday and Tuesday's forecast seems to be getting better aligned, the remainder of the forecast period is becoming fraught with uncertainty. This is mainly tied to the handling of the upper trough over the middle of the North America by both the ECMWF and Canadian models. Both models are insistent on larger trough spanning central Canada to the northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes will become a stronger trough and dig farther south across the southern United States. This solution is somewhat supported by 12z EC and NAEFS ensembles but it is not supported by GFS. Long story short, the non- GFS solutions would bring that southern stream system back across the northeast later Wednesday into Thursday while the GFS is more broadbrushed in bringing gradually colder and more moist cyclonic SW flow into our region within the broad troughing pattern. Current forecast is more GFS like, but looking at these trends from the ECMWF and Canadian, some adjustments to forecast may eventually be needed Wednesday through Friday. Eventually all models do show the trough and cold air settling across, but it may now not be until very late in the week. Models often struggle in these type of strong pattern changes and that seems like what is occurring this time around.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. VFR conditions are expected into this evening. Some IFR will again return to river valleys overnight. There should be some clouds toward Saturday morning in the Southern Tier and eventually across Central NY, but generally VFR conditions should continue.

Outlook .

Saturday and Sunday . VFR. Monday and Tuesday . VFR/MVFR with an increasing chance of showers. Wednesday . MVFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Quiet weather is expected into Saturday night with surface high pressure remaining off the Northeast US. There may be some low clouds over portions of Lake Ontario tonight. WSW flow may pick up enough for a portion of Saturday night and Sunday for Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie. The next active weather period will arrive Tuesday as a frontal system moves across the region. Boating conditions will deteriorate at that time with numerous opportunities for small craft conditions for the remainder of next week as cooler air pools aloft.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Zaff NEAR TERM . RSH/Zaff SHORT TERM . EAJ LONG TERM . EAJ/JLA AVIATION . RSH/Zaff MARINE . Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi48 min NE 1 G 1.9 69°F 1016.4 hPa61°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi126 min E 5.1 G 6 67°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi48 min 66°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi12 minN 010.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1016.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi12 minE 310.00 miA Few Clouds72°F59°F64%1016.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm3S3SW4SW5SW4SW5W453N6
1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmS3CalmS3S3CalmS3SW43CalmS3W5CalmW3NW4NW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3S3SW4SW3SW4CalmSW3SW4NW9W12W11W11W9W10W10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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