Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday April 22, 2021 10:14 AM EDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:29PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:202104221515;;940050 Fzus51 Kbuf 221030 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 630 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-221515- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 630 Am Edt Thu Apr 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday morning...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west to 30 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 6 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day, then rain Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest. Rain during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west less than 10 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 221047 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 647 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this morning will transition to scattered instability snow showers this afternoon, even farther inland. Localized minor additional accumulations and briefly reduced visibility are possible. High pressure will bring a return to drier, warmer weather for Friday. Low pressure will then cross the region this weekend, with rain from late Saturday through Sunday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. A northwest flow of unseasonably cold air will continue to support some lake response this morning southeast of the lakes. Shortwave moving across with increased lift and moisture expanded the lake effect for a time early this morning just ahead of a weak trough dropping through. Snow showers have been most widespread southeast of Lake Ontario from Niagara and Orleans County east across Wayne and N.Cayuga counties and down into the Finger Lakes. If the snow showers persist in any one location rest of the morning, another inch or two could occur, though latest radar shows a diminishing trend compared to earlier. The lingering snow showers or the snow that occurred overnight may have some impact on the morning commute as sfc temps are below freezing. Though support is not as favorable off Lake Erie, could still may see a coating to an inch across the higher terrain southeast of the lake. Upslope snow showers may also produce a coating to an inch across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

The lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Ontario this morning will end by midday as moisture and instability decrease over the lakes. However, during the afternoon expect the lakes to "flip", going from instability sources to instability sinks as diurnal heating warms up the land more than the lakes. This will force stable lake shadows to form over and downwind of the lakes, while diurnal cumulus/stratocu and scattered snow/rain showers develop over inland areas. Forecast soundings point to steep low-level lapse rates over 8C/km and wet bulb zero heights will stay mainly below freezing. Thus, preferred to use snow as main ptype and not include rain until temps get above 40F. Given the steep lapse rates, certainly possible that the snow showers in the afternoon could produce brief reduced visibility.

Temperatures will remain cold, with highs this afternoon reaching the lower 40s on the lake plains and mid to upper 30s for higher terrain. It will also turn quite windy, with gusts of 30-40 mph across the area, strongest southeast of Lake Ontario. The chilly temps and gusty winds will result in wind chill readings staying only as warm as the 20s into early this afternoon.

Warm air advection will occur tonight aloft as an upper level ridge moves into the Great Lakes region. Dry, but still staying cool with temperatures falling to the low to mid 30s lake plains and upper 20s across the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Arrival of upper level ridge will signal a warming trend on Friday. May be period of increased clouds, but otherwise H85 temps rising to +2c will support highs *much* warmer than last couple days with readings back to near average in the mid to upper 50s, except remaining in the 40s for higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Low temperatures Friday night will be near normal, so essentially around what we will see for highs today.

A northern stream shortwave trough will track from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region Saturday and Saturday night. This trough will become amplified while a southern stream system tracks into the Mid-Atlantic region. These two systems will draw moisture into the region and rain is likely across the eastern Great Lakes. Despite increasing clouds on Saturday and even some rain making it into western NY by sunset, warmer air aloft will result in highs reaching the 60s. Most model guidance in agreement that between these two systems rain occurs across the entire forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. Need to note though the Canadian model is an outlier, keeping the two systems quite separate and southern stream system farther south resulting in very little precipitation at all across western to north central NY. Interesting too that the Canadian and GFS ensembles kind of show that same idea. Will be something to watch as we get closer to this event. Regardless though, only looking at a rain as ptype as low temps on Saturday night will remain mainly in the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. . Big warm up expected during this period .

Precipitation chances diminishing from west to east on Sunday as the complex storm system pulls away. Cooler air wrapping in behind the system will support highs only in the 40s to low 50s.

Sfc high pressure builds in from the west Sunday night which will then bring dry weather to the eastern Great Lakes through the end of this period. Also, a warming trend begins Monday which ramps up on Tuesday (MaxTs in the upper 60s to low 70s) and continues on Wednesday with highs peaking in the upper 70s to near 80F.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Cold NW'erly flow will continue to filter in across the eastern Great Lakes with Numerous lake effect snow showers SE of the lakes. This will produce at times lower CIGS and VSBYS within the heavier lake effect snow showers. Otherwise, most locations will continue to see low end VFR CIGS this morning.

Lake effect snow showers will gradually transition to diurnally driven snow showers inland from the lakes this afternoon. Outside of these snow showers, VFR conditions will prevail. It will also become quite windy, with gusts of 25 to 35 knots across the region, strongest southeast of Lake Ontario.

Tonight, any lingering snow showers will diminish after sunset with VFR conditions likely at all terminals.

Outlook .

Friday and Saturday . Mainly VFR. Saturday night and Sunday . MVFR with showers likely. Monday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will move northeast to the Gulf of Saint Lawrence later today while deepening, producing a period of strong westerly winds on the eastern Great Lakes. The strongest winds will be on Lake Ontario today, with sustained winds approaching 30 knots. Expect the Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue through tonight on both lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040- 041. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA NEAR TERM . Hitchcock/JLA SHORT TERM . HSK/JLA LONG TERM . AR AVIATION . AR MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi56 min WNW 30 G 34 35°F 1010.4 hPa25°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi74 min W 9.9 G 14 32°F 1013.2 hPa
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi56 min 33°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi20 minNW 20 G 2710.00 miBreezy36°F22°F57%1010.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi20 minW 182.00 miLight Snow and Breezy33°F26°F75%1010 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N10
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1 day agoNW15
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NW10NW10W6W3W3N3N5N5N8N9N5N3N5N8N10
2 days agoSW6--6SE6S5S44S3S6SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmW3W7NW10W14W10W9W9W9W13
G21
W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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