Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Altmar, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 5:10PM Sunday January 26, 2020 6:40 AM EST (11:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 6:55PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 352 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm est this afternoon through Monday evening...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow showers. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202001261615;;532795 FZUS51 KBUF 260852 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 352 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-261615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altmar, NY
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location: 43.43, -76     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 261027 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 527 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system will continue to impact the lower Great Lakes with mainly wet snow through the start of the new work week. Most areas should pick up an inch or two of snow accumulation by Monday morning, with portions of the higher terrain across the western Southern Tier and the Tug Hill region receiving the higher amounts.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Storm system will continue to affect the region through tonight. Closed upper level low currently located right over the lower Great Lakes region. Next shortwave now rounding the southern periphery of the main upper low and is moving into western NY. The added moisture and support from this feature has brought a notable uptick in snow shower activity across portions of the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier. A wet, slushy inch or so of accumulation will be possible across these areas by daybreak. Most other areas should not pick up more than a coating at best.

The weak parent surface low will track north of NYS across southern Quebec, while the coastal low tracks slowly northeast across Maine today. While there will be ongoing light snow favoring the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill, accumulations will again be minor for most areas as 850mb temperatures will only be in the neighborhood of -6C to -7C. Marginal surface temperatures which will also hamper snowfall accumulations. Therefore, lower elevations should not see more than an additional slushy coating to an inch during the day. As for the higher terrain areas, may see up to two inches across the Chautauqua Ridge into the Boston Hills, with up to three inches possible on the Tug Hill. Late in the day another round of deeper moisture will pivot around the upper level low setting the stage for the next uptick in the chances for accumulating snowfall.

Tonight, upslope flow (westerly flow) and the above mentioned arrival of additional moisture which will allow saturation up through the DGZ, along with a secondary upper level trough that will move through overnight will bring the greatest potential for accumulating snowfall, especially across the higher terrain. Marginal surface temperatures across the lower elevations will once again limit snowfall accumulations here to an average of around an inch overall, with maybe upwards of two inches in some spots. The better accumulating snow will be found across the higher terrain as expected with an additional 4-6 inches on the Tug Hill and 2-4 inches across the Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills and the hills of Wyoming County.

In terms of temperatures, which will play a critical role in accumulation, will peak in the mid 30s across the lower elevations, with low 30s across the higher terrain today. Tonight, lows will range from the mid and upper 20s across the higher terrain, to the lower 30s across the lower elevations.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Low pressure will be heading toward Canadian maritimes on Monday with a lingering low pressure trough extending back across the lower Great Lakes. Shortwave dropping through on backside of upper level trough and the associated boost provided to the ongoing snow showers should be in process of exiting eastern Lake Ontario region early on Monday. West blyr flow veering northwest will be left across the region with inversion top temps of -6c to -7c that are marginal for much lake response especially with inversion lowering to less than 5kft AGL. Even so though, expect at least light snow showers to persist through the day due to lifting mainly from higher terrain. Upstream moisture will diminish through the day as northwest flow continues. An additional 1-2 inches is possible across the higher terrain to less than inch across the lower elevations. High temperatures will reach the low 30s across the higher terrain to the mid 30s across the lower elevations.

As sfc trough drops south on Monday night and high pressure over northern Ontario begins to ridge into the lower Great Lakes, temps cool further with temps at H85 settling toward -10c which will be just cold enough for a lake response with water temps now running around 37F/3C. Lowering inversions below 4kft will put crimp on intensity of lake effect, so looks like a higher pop and low qpf/snow type setup. At the least, will stay rather cloudy on into Tuesday. Any snow showers and flurries should taper off and end Tuesday night and nw winds begin to shift around and inversions continue to lower. Think the clouds may persist in sct to broken fashion into Wednesday though. Temps on Tuesday and Wednesday will be around normal, with coldest readings in the low to mid 20s in the eastern Lake Ontario region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. Surface high pressure will slowly build eastward from the upper Great Lakes and northern Ontario, with the ridge axis arriving over our region by Thursday morning. Ridge and light winds on Wednesday night will result in the coldest night of the week it appears with lows in the single digits to lower teens and below zero readings for the North Country. Expect seasonable daytime highs on Thursday with another cooler night on Thursday night, then as the ridge axis moves east of here we should see temperatures bounce above normal into the upper 30s to near 40F on Friday as sw winds begin to take shape btwn exiting high and developing low pressure over central Canada.

First glance at next weekend features stronger low slowly churning toward northern Ontario and Hudson Bay while another low lifts along the east coast. GFS seems to be outlier with the east coast low being the stronger one (somewhat supported by GEFS) while the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble is stronger with the Ontario low and has a weaker wave lifting along the east Coast (somewhat supported by the Canadian). WPC hand drawn progs look more like the ECMWF than any other model. Overall went with slightly warmer temps compared to NBM and placed a broadbrushed mix of rain and snow in there for a starting point, though if the ECMWF idea verified, probably would be more rain than snow. Plenty of time to sort this out.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. A slow moving storm system over the Upper Great Lakes will move to the north of the region through this afternoon. This will generally keep unsettled weather across our forecast area . with widespread MVFR to IFR cigs expected through the TAF period. The cloud cover will be accompanied by snow showers, most persistent at JHW and ART where IFR vsby are expected. Elsewhere will mainly be MVFR vsby with only brief lowering to IFR.

Outlook .

Tonight . IFR to MVFR with fairly widespread snow showers. Monday . IFR to MVFR cigs slowly improving to VFR. Tuesday . Mainly VFR . but MVFR in scattered snow showers. Wednesday and Thursday . Mainly VFR.

MARINE. Continued strengthening of west to southwest winds into tonight has resulted in a new round of Small Craft Advisories on all of Lake Ontario, with the highest waves found north of Mexico Bay on the east end of the lake.

As the center of the slow moving storm system exits across Quebec and the Canadian maritimes Tonight and Monday, winds and waves will gradually subside across the region.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for NYZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for LOZ042-043. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EST Monday for LOZ044-045.



SYNOPSIS . JM NEAR TERM . JM SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 27 mi52 min 35°F 1007 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 85 mi40 min WSW 8 G 9.9 35°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 87 mi58 min 34°F 1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY21 mi46 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1007.5 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi46 minW 610.00 miLight Rain35°F30°F85%1007.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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E745E33CalmSE33SW4SW6SW5SW6SW6SW5SW6SW7W9SW5
1 day ago3CalmE54SE76SE7SE74SE55E5E63SE63E5--SE8
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2 days agoSE3SE3Calm54SE33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE3E3E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.