Friday, January24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 5:07PM Friday January 24, 2020 11:59 AM EST (16:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 4:51PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1238 Am Est Fri Jan 24 2020
Overnight..East winds 10 knots or less. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then rain and snow overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow and rain during the day, then snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:202001241015;;426362 FZUS51 KBUF 240538 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1238 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-045-241015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 241400 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 900 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. One last dry day today, then a large slow moving storm system from the mid western states will spread rain across much of our forecast area tonight. Eventually as colder air works back across the region Saturday night into Sunday . the precipitation will change over to some accumulating snow. Most areas should pick up an inch or two of accumulation by the end of the weekend with parts of the Southern Tier and Eastern Lake Ontario region receiving several inches.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Today will be dry through at least mid-afternoon. After this, rain will approach far Western New York, with this expected to move into Chautauqua county and the Niagara Frontier around or shortly after sunset. Otherwise, high pressure centered across southern Quebec will provide dry weather today. There will be lot of mid and high clouds ahead of low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures will be above normal with highs in the low to mid 40s. Winds will be relatively light with the exception of Chautauqua County where downsloping will result in wind gusts to 35 mph late in the afternoon.

Attention this evening will be on upper low over the western Ohio valley with sfc-H85 low nearly vertically stacked just to its north. H9-H8 southerly jet currently supporting the widespread shield of precipitation from Michigan into the southeast US eventually makes its way into far southwest New York after 21z/4 PM today. Expect swath of mainly rain along and just following this low-level jet axis to spread across western NY to the Finger Lakes tonight and to the east of Lake Ontario on Saturday, though east to northeast progress will be gradually slowed as it runs into the still stubborn high pressure centered from eastern Quebec toward Nova Scotia. Ptype remains a challenge. Overall with the strong low-level jet and warm air advection, believe mostly liquid will occur with the initial surge of precip tonight into Saturday morning. Evaporative cooling of the precip will lead to warm layer aloft only reaching 1-2C. NAM and to a lesser extent the Canadian GEM indicate interior Southern Tier (Olean to Wellsville) and higher terrain east of Lake Ontario could see some freezing rain while GFS is warmer in the blyr and just has rain. Any freezing rain should be very brief as sfc temps in the 32-33F range are marginal to see much in way of prolonged icing. SREF plumes over interior areas though are very limited in terms of showing any freezing rain. Will keep a mention of freezing rain in grids and in HWO, but after coordinating with surrounding offices, will not issue a winter weather advisory attm.

It is possible we could need a wind advisory though, as downslope se winds increase downstream of the Chautauqua Ridge with gusts of 40 to maybe 50 mph possible. Later on Saturday, good signal that as upper low becomes more overhead, dry slot in the mid-levels will begin to enter the picture helping to diminish the initial surge of precipitation. No real cold air advection by that point either, so if there is any precip occurring on Saturday aftn, would likely be light rain or drizzle.

On Saturday night, sfc-H85 low from the midwest will lift to north vcnty of Ontario and Quebec border. This occurs while another low begins to take shape along the Mid Atlantic. A cooling trend aloft and eventually toward sfc should ensue which will begin to introduce snow back into the region from west to east. Cooling at the sfc does lag though, so even though snow will begin to increase over the higher terrain over the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario with maybe an inch or two of slushy accumulation, lower elevation locations such as Buffalo, Rochester and Watertown will stay with rain or at the most a mix of rain and snow much of the night.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Sunday, the initial surface low will be located just north of NYS. This low will eventually give way to secondary cyclogenesis along the Maine coast later Sunday. Cyclonic flow around the large upper level low will cause temps aloft to cool, thus making the airmass in the western quadrant of the system marginally supportive of some wet snow for the second half of the weekend.

The majority of the precipitation will be in the form of snow Sunday morning, before mixing with some rain at times during the midday and afternoon hours across lower elevations. The wrap around phase of precipitation Sunday and Sunday night will feature upslope enhancement across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill/western Dacks as westerly flow increases in the wake of the system. While there will be orographic enhancement, the boundary layer never becomes quite cold enough for any appreciable lake enhancement.

As far as accumulations go, the continued marginal thermal structure will keep the accumulations fairly dependent on elevation. It will remain cold enough across the higher terrain on Sunday to allow for snow to accumulate. Expect additional accumulations on Sunday to reach 2-3 inches across the higher terrain from the Boston Hills and Wyoming County down through Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with an additional 2-4 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau and western Dacks. Across lower elevations, temperatures will struggle to get cold enough to allow for much, if any accumulation. Expect a coating to an inch of slushy accumulation at best across most of the lower elevation locations, including Buffalo and Rochester. Cyclonic flow and moisture wrapping in on the back side of the low will keep snow showers going across the region Sunday night in a northwest flow regime. It will be cold enough that all areas will likely see a light accumulation, with the highest amounts found across our favored northwest flow upslope areas of the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill/western Dacks.

Northwest upslope snow showers will continue into Monday morning, with just some scattered snow showers found across the lower terrain areas. All of this activity will taper off by later in the day as low pressure departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Any additional accumulations will be minor.

As for temperatures, highs on Sunday will range from the lower 30s across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere. It will be a little cooler on Monday with highs in the upper 20s to around 30 across the higher terrain with lower to mid 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. An upper trough will move over the region Monday night into Tuesday. This will help to force an associated surface cold front slowly southward across NYS during this time frame. This boundary will have limited low level moisture to work with, so expect just some nuisance light snow showers through Tuesday. Aside from a few leftover light snow showers Tuesday night, the main signature of this front will be to usher back in a somewhat colder airmass across the region, with temperatures returning back closer to average.

Expect mainly dry weather Wednesday through Thursday as high pressure builds in with temperatures closer to average for this time of year continuing.

AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Despite a gradual lowering of our high and mid level cloud cover . VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon. Lower strato-cu will then work into the Western Southern Tier this evening and that could result in some MVFR cigs for sites like KJHW and KELZ by nightfall. By later this evening, most areas except in the North Country will become MVFR as rain spreads into the region. LLWS is also expected for all sites except ART.

Outlook .

Saturday . Widespread MVFR to IFR cigs with rain. Saturday night through Sunday . Widespread IFR conditions in rain and snow changing to snow. Monday . IFR to MVFR cigs slowly improving to VFR. Tuesday . Mainly VFR . but MVFR in scattered snow showers.

MARINE. Tightening pressure gradient between high pressure over eastern Canada and approaching low pressure from the midwest will support strengthening easterly winds through Saturday on Lake Ontario. Expect SCA conditions on the western end of the lake late this morning through much of Saturday. Winds and waves on both lakes will subside Saturday night . as the vertically stacked storm will make its way across the region On the backside of the system. winds and waves will once again increase throughout the day Sunday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . JLA/RSH MARINE . JLA/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi65 min 39°F 1025.6 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi59 min E 7 G 7 37°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi65 min 36°F 1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi65 minESE 710.00 miOvercast39°F15°F38%1026.2 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi65 minENE 810.00 miOvercast38°F19°F46%1026 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SE3E3E3CalmCalm3CalmE54SE7
1 day agoS6S5S53SE3SE3SE4SE3SE5SE3CalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3Calm54
2 days agoS3S5S5S4S7S7SW7W11SW9W9SW8S5SW8S7S4S4S5S4S7SW8S9S7S6S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.