Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:40PM Saturday May 30, 2020 8:24 AM EDT (12:24 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 1:15AM Illumination 59% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 735 Pm Edt Fri May 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am edt Saturday through Saturday morning...
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Occasional showers with a chance of Thunderstorms this evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Scattered showers late. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..North winds around 10 knots becoming west. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:202005300315;;959609 FZUS51 KBUF 292335 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 735 PM EDT Fri May 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-300315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico, NY
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location: 43.43, -76.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 301042 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 642 AM EDT Sat May 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. Another cold front will cross the region today with a few showers. Temperatures will be much cooler today, and will turn even cooler tonight through Sunday behind the second cold front. Below normal temperatures will continue through early next week before a warm front crosses the area Tuesday, bringing warming temperatures and a chance of showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Radar imagery showing a few light showers left east of Lake Ontario. These will end by mid morning as deeper moisture continues to move off to the east. A brief period of clearing has developed elsewhere, but this will be short lived.

Another mid level trough will cross the eastern Great Lakes today, with an associated secondary cold front crossing the area this afternoon. The increasing synoptic scale forcing will interact with developing lake breeze and terrain boundaries to support increasing coverage of showers across Western NY through the morning. These showers will move/develop eastward through the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by midday or early afternoon. Another area of showers will develop north of Lake Ontario later this morning, reaching the Saint Lawrence Valley and eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. High resolution model guidance is in good agreement with the more course global models in suggesting the best shower coverage will be found along and just south of the NY Thruway, and across the Saint Lawrence Valley where low level convergence will be maximized. Steep mid level lapse rates may even support an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon across Central NY and the Saint Lawrence Valley.

The showers will end from northwest to southeast late this afternoon and evening as the secondary cold front exits, and diurnal instability wanes. Light showers may linger a little longer across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario as northwest upslope flow develops. Clouds will clear this evening, but will likely increase again overnight as temperatures aloft cool and support lake effect clouds southeast of the lakes.

Temperatures will be much cooler today than they have for the past week. Highs will be in the mid 60s in most locations, and approaching 70 from the Genesee Valley to Central NY. These highs will likely occur midday to early afternoon, with falling temperatures later in the day. Cold advection this evening will give way to radiational cooling later tonight as winds diminish. Lows will drop into the mid 40s on the lake plains and around 40 across the interior Southern Tier, and mid to upper 30s across Lewis County. There appears to be a little too much breeze and cloud cover to support frost potential for tonight, even in Lewis County.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Guaranteed below normal temperatures to finish out the weekend and start the new work week as the axis of a deep longwave trough across eastern North America slowly starts to push east of the area into New England.

The next shortwave and associated surface trough will cross the region Sunday, with one final push of reinforcing cold air. Although much of the time will be dry, there will be enough forcing combined with marginal available moisture and cold pool aloft to generate a decent cu field and possibly produce a few showers, mainly inland of the lakeshores from late morning through the afternoon. The other story for Sunday will be the cool temperatures. In fact, this will be the coolest day of the next seven, and quite possibly the coolest day for quite some time to come. Thus despite strong late May sunshine, 850Ts around or a bit below 0C during the day will translate to most areas only reaching the mid and upper 50s for daytime highs, with the Tug and western Dacks likely not peaking too much above the 50F degree mark.

The main upper trough axis will cross the region Sunday night, possibly bringing a few light showers to the North Country as the base of the trough skirts northern NY, with dry weather expected for the remainder of the area. Otherwise, a chilly night night on tap with lows mainly in the lower to mid 40s, with some upper 30s again possible across the Southern Tier, and mid 30s across the Tug and western Dacks. Will once again have to assess how much cloud cover will be seen across the area for any frost potential, with Lewis and Jefferson counties the most likely candidates if there's enough clearing.

Monday will be the start of a slow warming trend that will last through the upcoming week. An initial wing of low level weak warm advection will push across the area, while one last upper level shortwave grazes northern NY as it slides southeast down the back side of the departing main upper trough, possibly producing a shower or two toward the Saint Lawrence Valley. Dry weather expected elsewhere. With regard to temperatures, after a cold start to the day, most areas will rebound into the 60s, with still some upper 50s possible across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. Slow day to day warming will continue through Thursday, although it will be unsettled at times. Then expect a dry finish to the work week.

The main warm front will start to approach from the west Monday night. Strong warm advection moving into western NY ahead of the boundary may produce a few showers from the Finger Lakes westward during the second half of the night. Otherwise, it will be warmer with lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The warm front will all but stall as it moves into the region on Tuesday, bringing increasing chances for showers as the day wears on. The best chance for rain during the period will come Tuesday night, as potent upper shortwave and associated surface low pressure push across the region bringing the likelihood for showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder. Yet another upper level trough embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft will approach the area Wednesday, then cross the area Wednesday night helping to shove the stalled boundary back south of the region. Will keep Chc PoPs in for Wednesday and Wednesday night with the approach and passage of these features.

High pressure will start to nose in from the west Thursday, then move over the eastern Great Lakes by Friday. After a few leftover showers Thursday, should see a dry and warm finish to the work week.

As for temperatures, after one more day with highs in the 60s, 70s can be expected across the majority of the region from mid week onward.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The last of the scattered light showers will end east of Lake Ontario by mid morning. MVFR CIGS will continue east of Lake Ontario through early to mid morning in post-frontal low stratus. Elsewhere, a brief period of clearing and VFR has developed.

Another cold front will cross the region today, and combine with local lake breeze boundaries to produce a period of showers. The showers will begin in the morning across Western NY, and spread towards the Genesee Valley and western Finger Lakes by midday and east of Lake Ontario by early to mid afternoon. Clouds will increase again, with CIGS running mainly lower end VFR at lower elevations and MVFR across higher terrain. A few of the heavier showers will contain brief MVFR, and a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across Central NY and the Saint Lawrence Valley. Showers will end from northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, with CIGS also scattering out as drier air arrives behind the cold front.

Outlook .

Sunday through Monday . Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday . MVFR with chance of showers

MARINE. Winds will quickly diminish on Lake Ontario early this morning. Another cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes this afternoon. WSW winds will quickly increase on Lake Erie this morning as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the cold front, producing a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions. WNW winds on Lake Ontario will increase late this afternoon and evening behind the cold front, producing another round of Small Craft Advisory conditions along the south shore of the lake.

Winds will diminish on Lake Erie early this evening, and on Lake Ontario overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes across the eastern Great Lakes. Another weak trough will pass just north of the area Sunday afternoon and evening. This will produce a period of somewhat stronger WSW winds on Lakes Erie and Ontario, with winds and waves expected to remain just below Small Craft criteria.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late tonight for NYZ003>006. Beach Hazards Statement from 5 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for NYZ001-002. Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ010-019-085. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020-040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043-044. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock NEAR TERM . Hitchcock SHORT TERM . JM LONG TERM . JM AVIATION . Hitchcock MARINE . Hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 17 mi66 min W 9.9 G 14 54°F 1014.7 hPa51°F
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 43 mi84 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 51°F 50°F2 ft1014.4 hPa (+1.9)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi84 min WSW 6 G 8.9 57°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi72 min 58°F 1015 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fulton, Oswego County Airport, NY11 mi30 minW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F53°F81%1014.7 hPa
Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock International Airport, NY22 mi30 minW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F52°F78%1014.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFZY

Wind History from FZY (wind in knots)
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1 day ago53S9
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4S3S4S3CalmCalmS4S4S7S4S66S10
2 days agoS5S6S7--4S7SW5S10S8S10S8S5S8S7S6S54SE43SE33SE3SE4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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