Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Sanford, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
Northeast breeze is picking up this morning and allowing some drier air to move in from the east. The breaks in clouds have allowed temps to fall into the 30s in some locations across the Kennebec River Valley. Under the clouds a few sprinkles are possible...but I do not anticipate anything more than a trace.

Between the onshore flow and cloud cover it will be cooler than normal today
The warmest temps
only in the mid 50s...will be across the upper parts of the CT River Valley.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
As low levels moisten this evening...showers will start to become more likely. This will especially be true where easterly flow is upsloping into the higher terrain. At the same time low pressure will be deepening to our southwest and an precip shield will be organizing. This precip will enter southwestern zones very late tonight or early Thu.

The steady precip will move north thru the forecast area Thu and pretty much cover the entire area by evening. Given all the precip
onshore winds
and cloud cover temps will struggle to even make the 50s. This off-season nor'easter will also bring gusty winds to the coast...where some 35 to 40 mph gusts are possible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Update...Guidance continues to flirt with 925 mb temps around -1 C across much of the higher terrain and parts of southwestern NH. This is a bit of a signal for snow getting into the lower elevations. NBM currently does not have much in the way of probability for snow outside the highest peaks...but I could see snow down to around 1000 to 1500 ft with the right storm track.

Previously...
Starting Thursday...A 500 mb shortwave out ahead of the upper low will lift from the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast and bring a deepening surface low toward the region that will likely cross the near the Maine coast or over the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into Friday. This will spread a steady, soaking rainfall northward through the area through the day on Thursday that will likely continue through Friday morning before tapering off from south to north later in the day on Friday. In additional to this, a period of a gusty east to northeast winds of 20-30 mph is possible from Thurday into Thursday night and as potentially 35-40 mph near the coast, making it feel pretty raw out as temps will probably be mostly in the 40s. Rainfall amounts are generally expected be between 0.25-0.50" across northern areas and 0.50-1.00" to the south and along the coast. There are higher probabilities of seeing over an inch of rain over southern NH and into SW ME, so the forecast has 1.00-1.50" of rain in these areas.

It should be stressed that it will also feel like winter in the mountains on Thursday and Friday with potentially dangerous conditions for hikers and those recreating. Brisk winds will bring wind chills below freezing and even into the single digits to teens in the higher elevations. Accumulating snow is also possible in the Whites above 3000 ft in elevation with several inches in the highest elevation.

The upper low crosses slowly eastward over the weekend, and while steadier precip is not expected, it will bring a continued chance of showers with chances currently looking a little lower into Sunday. For Monday into Tuesday, there's uncertainty as to whether a ridge will be able to build in or if the low pressure will remain more of an influence, so the NBM PoPs of 20-30% will do for now.

Temperatures follow a warming trend from Saturday into early next week but still remaining below normal for the weekend then back closer to seasonal normals early next week.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Short Term...Areas of MVFR CIGs remain banked against the White Mtns and along the coast...with some drier air and VFR conditions pushing in from the east. This is expected to fill in during the day with diurnal heating. Some MVFR conditions are possible at all terminals during the day. Starting tonight CIGs will lower as rain begins to move in. Areas of IFR will develop and expand northeast and continue into Thu. Near the coast northeast surface gusts up to 30 or 35 kt are possible Thu afternoon.

Long Term...IFR restrictions are likely with LIFR possible Thursday through at least the first part of Friday as low pressure approaching from the south and moving across the Gulf of Maine brings widespread rainfall and gusty east to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt possible, especially near the coast.
Conditions are forecast to start to improve later in the day Friday as the low lifts to the north, but showers and flight restrictions may continue over portions of the area into the weekend.

MARINE
Short Term...Fresh onshore breeze today under high pressure between systems. A seasonably strong low pressure will move towards the Gulf of ME later Thu. Winds will gradually increase up to that point...with gale force wind gusts outside the bays likely by Thu afternoon. Despite the bulk of the event occurring third period or later...confidence is high enough to go with a gale warning right now. I have also issued SCAs for the bays...but there remains a low probability that gale force gusts make it that far north and west if the storm tracks closer.
Seas will also build above 10 ft as winds increase.

Long Term...Conditions continue to deteriorate over the waters Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south through the day and then crosses the water Thursday night and Friday. There is increasing potential for gales with this system, but conditions look to start coming down to SCA levels through the day Friday with continued improvement into Saturday. A northwest flow looks to set up to finish up the weekend into Monday as low pressure lingers northeast of the waters, and conditions look to remain below SCA levels during this time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150- 152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ151-153.