Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 4:26 PM   Moonset 4:38 AM

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ANZ154 Coastal Waters From Cape Elizabeth, Me To Merrimack River, Ma Out 25 Nm- 655 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less early this afternoon, increasing to 1 to 3 nm. Tonight - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sun night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon - NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mon night - W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wed - S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Wed night - S winds around 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.

ANZ100 655 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a cold front will approach the waters today with sw flow ahead of the front and periods of showers through today winds shift out of the west tonight behind the front before shifting more southwesterly Sunday as another cold front approaches. This front will cross Sunday night and could bring a period of conditions hazardous to small craft into Monday. High pressure moves over the waters Tuesday before an area of low pressure likely approaches the waters by Wednesday.

FXUS61 KGYX 201045 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 645 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front approaches the coast this morning bringing showers to the area with more persistent showers along the coastal plain until mid day. A secondary front crosses this evening with scattered showers and blustery winds. Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday. Another cold front crosses Sunday night with dry and gusty conditions on Monday. The next system to bring widespread precipitation to the region arrives around Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
645 AM Update...Have mainly refreshed PoPs to align with observed trends which has not resulted in any significant changes. A narrow band of moderate rain has developed from central Mass through the coastal plain of NH and Maine with lighter showers to the NW through the mountains. This narrow band of moderate rain will persist along the coast through the morning with drier air working into NW zones as winds have already shifted out of the west across northern VT.

Previously...

Rain showers are starting to overspread the area early this morning as a cold front drops southeast through the area. This front will stall along the coast through the morning leading to the coastal plain seeing a soaking rain through mid day while drier air works into from the NW. This dry air will lead to thinning cloud cover and a few hours of precipitation free conditions, first over NW portions of the area and then towards coast early this afternoon.

A vort max rotating around an upper low over eastern Canada will approach the area from the west later this afternoon. This will lead to additional showers developing this afternoon into this evening. These showers may be able to tap into some instability and with freezing levels dropping to 3KFT north to 4KFT south they could produce some graupel along with some snow showers into the higher terrain. Additionally, behind this mornings rainfall, the boundary layer will deepen along with low level lapse rates steepening. This mixed boundary layer with inverted V soundings will also bring the potential for gusty winds with these afternoon showers as some runs of the HRRR suggest gusts could reach 40 mph. This gusty showers activity will wane with the loss of heating this evening. Highs today will range from near 50 degrees across the north to near 60 degrees across southern NH and interior SW Maine.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
Skies will turn mostly clear tonight while winds remain breezy out of the NW. These winds will limit radiational cooling while a cooler and drier airmass moving in will allow for lows in the low to mid 30s with cooler readings across the north.

Broad cyclonic flow will continue over the Northeast through Sunday. A dry airmass in place should lead to a mostly dry day across the area while daytime heating will lead to clouds bubbling up by Sunday afternoon. Highs will range from the mid 40s north to upper 50s south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Overview...

A broad trough extending into the Northeast brings seasonably cool and dry conditions into midweek on northwesterly flow.
Conditions likely become unsettled again by Wednesday into Thursday as a slow moving front progresses through New England.

Details...

A weak area of low pressure passes to the north Sunday night and Monday, bringing the chance for some showers to northern areas and the higher terrain Sunday night and Monday. South of the mountains, conditions look to remain dry. A weak and dry front passes through the area Sunday night, bringing dry conditions and breezy northwesterly winds, along with cool temperatures. South of the mountains, fire weather is likely to be a concern, while temps in the 30s and 40s through the mountains and foothills lessens these concerns.

Temperatures and humidity begin to rebound by Tuesday as southerly flow returns ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will crest the region early in the day Tuesday and strengthen as it moves out south of the Canadian Maritimes.

A slow moving front pushes into New England on Wednesday and into Wednesday night, with an area of low pressure likely to develop. How organized and significant this system becomes remains the subject of some uncertainty, but regardless showers at least look likely across the forecast area. With high pressure centered to the north across Quebec, some precip is likely to switch to snow by Wednesday night, particularly across northwestern locations and the higher terrain.

The Thursday-Friday time remains uncertain at this point as the low pressure system will be slow to depart to the east, but strong high pressure will push in from the west. There is likely to be a sharp gradient from clear skies and warmer temps to the west, with cool and damp conditions to the east. Whether this occurs at night or during the daytime on Thursday remains uncertain, but will result in two very different outcomes depending on the placement of these features. We'll have to wait at least a few more days before the details become more clear on this.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Short Term...MVFR conditions are expected at KMHT and KCON through mid morning before improving to VFR this afternoon. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected at KPSM, KPWM, KAUG, and KRKD through mid day with improving conditions this afternoon except at KRKD which may hold onto low cigs through the afternoon.
Upslope clouds and showers with bring periods of MVFR through today at KHIE while KLEB remains predominantly VFR. Steady west winds tonight will allow for mainly VFR tonight with VFR likely on Sunday.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most terminals from Sunday night through Tuesday, except at HIE where a period of MVFR ceilings is likely late Sunday and Sunday night. Restrictions are likely on Wednesday as showers and lower ceilings return, with MVFR to IFR conditions likely.
Improvement is likely on Thursday, but a return to VFR may take until Thursday night.

MARINE
Short Term...Steady southwest to south flow prevails today as front slowly crosses the waters bringing periods of rain. The front shifts east of the waters this afternoon with a second round of gusty showers approaching the waters from the west that could bring isolated gusts up to 30 kts through this evening.
Winds turn westerly tonight before shifting out of the southwest Sunday. Winds could approach 25 kts Sunday afternoon while seas remain below 5 feet during the period.

Long Term...A weak front crosses the waters Sunday night, with high pressure building in behind the front for Monday and Tuesday. SCA conditions are possible in northwesterly flow on Monday. The high moves east of the waters by Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west, with SCA conditions possible in southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Kennebunkport
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Sat -- 03:59 AM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:37 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     8.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:31 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:34 PM EDT     8.33 feet High Tide
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Kennebunkport, Maine, Tide feet

Salmon Falls River entrance
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Sat -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:30 AM EDT     6.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:58 PM EDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:53 PM EDT     6.64 feet High Tide
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Salmon Falls River entrance, Piscataqua River, New Hampshire, Tide feet

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