Thursday, January23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belgium, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday January 23, 2020 4:46 AM CST (10:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:32AMMoonset 4:40PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ643 Sheboygan To Port Washington Wi- 306 Am Cst Thu Jan 23 2020
Early this morning..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Today..South wind 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Snow through the day. Rain in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing east early in the morning. Rain and snow. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..East wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing northeast early in the afternoon becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Rain and snow. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing north early in the morning. Rain and snow. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ643 Expires:202001232200;;382254 FZUS53 KMKX 230906 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 306 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ643-232200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belgium, WI
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location: 43.44, -87.81     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 230951 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 351 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2020

SHORT TERM.

Today through Friday . Forecast confidence is medium to high:

The better forcing currently associated with this round of snowfall will move on to the east by later today. This will result in a period of lower precip chances this evening into early tonight. Prior to that though, light snow will persist through much of the day today. Could see a brief mix with rain toward Illinois during the mildest part of the day. Additional snow amounts after sunrise today will be around an inch or so most places.

Low pressure over Missouri tonight will lift northeast and strengthen later tonight through Friday, reaching northern Indiana by Friday evening. Precipitation chances will increase again as this deepening low heads toward the area. Snow is expected for much of this period, though there is a chance for rain mixing in across a large part of the area for a time Friday. This will be dependent on how deep the low level warm layer is. A blend of models suggests that this above freezing layer will be right on the fence for either rain or snow for the late morning and afternoon hours Overall. looks like an additional 1-2 inches for tonight through Friday.

LONG TERM.

Friday night through Saturday night . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

Models continue a trend of showing a stronger and slower moving system during this period than previous guidance was suggesting. As the upper low deepens it will likely become occluded near the IN/MI/OH border early Saturday morning. Decent warm/moist air advection ahead of the deepening low will get wrapped around and spread into southern WI Friday night into Saturday. Locations near Lake Michigan could end up with a warm enough layer of above freezing temperatures as a result of the WAA that a rain/snow mix is likely. However, this will be dependent on where exactly the surface low tracks with some variance still evident in guidance on the position of this feature. For now have kept the rain/snow mix from roughly Fond du Lac down to Rockford, IL Friday evening. Colder air gets advected in overnight and the rain/snow mix should get pushed to right along the lake shore.

QPF amounts are trending higher as a result of the slower progression and better moisture getting wrapped around the system. The current forecast would put us squarely in the 50th percentile of guidance for QPF. But if the trend towards higher amounts continues these values will need to be adjusted upward a bit. The warmer temperature profile would suggest snow to liquid ratios close to slightly above 10 to 1. This translates into a round of more moderate snowfall with snow totals of 2-4 inches. Some higher amounts of 3-5 inches are possible where less mixing occurs. One thing to note is that both the NAM and GFS suggest some overlap in omega and the DGZ Friday night into early Saturday morning. This combined with some minor lake enhancement could nudge these snow totals higher than forecast. But, for now want to see models narrow in on the track of the surface low and see if the trend in higher QPF amounts holds with subsequent runs before going any higher with snow totals. These totals would suggest that some winter headlines could be needed Friday night through Saturday.

Sunday through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence is Medium.

The overall forecast for Sunday would suggest drier conditions but some guidance is suggesting that a piece of energy dropping south on the backside of the departing system could bring some additional flurries/light snow Sunday morning. As we head into early next week models suggest a series of weak upper waves should keep clouds in place and temperatures steady with highs in the 30s and lows in 20s. Wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries possibly each day as the shortwaves move across the region but probabilities are too low to include any PoPs at this time. The forecast from Tuesday through Wednesday becomes quite muddled as models try and pepper the central US with various shortwaves. There could be enough lift and moisture around to support some light snow/rain but will keep PoPs low until the forecast becomes more clear.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS).

Light snow will persist through the day today and into tonight. Precip chances to look lower for a time this evening into early tonight, before increasing again later tonight into Friday. An inch or so of snow is expected today, with another 1-2 later tonight into Friday. Could see a mix with rain for a time Friday. Still think snow/liquid ratio will be fairly average . 10-12 to 1 . except for wetter snow on Friday with the milder temps in the low levels.

Low ceilings will persist into Friday, with visibilities in the 1-4 mile range with the snowfall.

MARINE.

Lighter winds today will increase to the 10-20 knot range for Friday into the weekend. Though winds are not expected to reach headline criteria for the nearshore or open waters through the end of the week, waves could get close to Small Craft Advisory levels Friday under persistent easterly winds.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . DDV Friday through Wednesday . Stumpf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PWAW3 - Port Washington, WI 5 mi66 min S 4.1 G 7 30°F 1019.3 hPa
SGNW3 - Sheboygan, WI 22 mi46 min SSW 6 G 7 29°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 30 mi36 min SSE 5.1 G 6 29°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
West Bend Municipal Airport, WI17 mi51 minSE 32.50 miLight Snow28°F28°F100%1017.3 hPa
Sheboygan County Memorial Airport, WI24 mi53 minSSE 31.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F26°F89%1018.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KETB

Wind History from ETB (wind in knots)
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SW10SW8SW9SW10SW10S9SW9S7S8SW5SW7S6S7S6S5S8SW6S5S5S3S3SE3
1 day agoSW4SW3CalmSW7SW6SW8SW10
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2 days ago--NW3CalmCalmCalmN5NW6NW5NW5NW7NW6NW5NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.