Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakland, OR

FXUS66 KMFR 072252 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 252 PM PST Sat Dec 7 2024

SHORT TERM

The first of two cold fronts is moving through the region this afternoon. Most locations have seen some rain already as the first front moves farther eastwards. The chance of rain does drop off down to 60 percent east of the Cascades. Rain accumulation through tonight is fairly light with all locations seeing under 0.75 inches of rain. Some locations in northern California will just see trace amounts to a few hundreths.

By later tonight, the first wave in this longer upper level wave will move through the forecast region. Models suggest higher pressure building at the surface with a MSLP of 1029mb around Medford. With some patchy cloud cover, we could see fog within the valleys west and east of the Cascades later tonight and Sunday morning. Some locations in northern California like the Shasta valley could even see freezing fog Sunday morning with sub freezing low temperatures.

The second wave in this longer upper level wave will slide down the spine of the Cascades on Sunday afternoon and evening. This will result in more easterly flow over the Cascades, although the winds are not expected to be exceptionally strong, only about 10 to 15 knots. However, the air around 1000-500 mb will dry and we should see some clearing skies during Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon. Temperatures at the coast should be rather pleasant with a highs in the mid 50's Sunday afternoon and perhaps even 60 on Monday afternoon. Farther inland, temperatures will linger in the upper 40's or lower 50's.

As for Tuesday, a ridge will build over southern Oregon and northern California, which should result in morning fog. Models are also predicting mid and high level clouds Tuesday ahead of the next system. With the increasing cloud cover, fog and low stratus could be slow to burn off during the afternoon.

Finally by Wednesday, some ensemble members are picking up on the increasing chance of rain along the coast. The chance of rain is rather low and only about 20 to 30 percent. Those probabilities increase through Wednesday evening. However, there is another set of ensemble members that are keeping conditions fairly dry over the region. It seems to boil down to how quickly some ensemble members are bringing the next wave over the region and if it will be Wednesday or Thursday.

-Smith

LONG TERM
Wednesday evening through Friday night...The pattern finally becomes more consistently active in the extended period. By Wednesday evening, the first in a series of fronts will be approaching the region. As to be expected at this time range in the forecast, there are differences among the models regarding strength and how far south this front makes it. Currently about half of the ensemble suite brings rain to the region, focused north of the OR/CA border while another 20% of the ensemble members have this front farther south and more focused over northern California. Snow levels look to be around 4500-5000 feet with this front, so we aren't anticipating any significant winter impacts with this initial front. We'll likely see some enhanced breezes, but even the farther south solutions keep winds below advisory criteria.

Guidance shows a break in the weather late Thursday into at least early Friday. Despite this break, active weather looks to continue through the weekend and guidance is hinting at a potentially potent storm sometime late Friday into Saturday. Both deterministic models bring a deepening surface low pressure near 130W, though they differ in how close to shore and trajectory of this system. The ensemble suite is also split on this storm with about half the solutions keeping this system offshore. Of the remaining half, 25% of the solutions focus the impacts over our California locations with the other 25% focusing this event north of the OR/CA border. These differences would equate to rather different forecast scenarios, so would like see how future model trends evolve before making significant changes to the forecast. Either way, confidence remains moderate to high that an active pattern returns for the latter half of the week and through at least next weekend, if not longer. Stay tuned as we dial in on potential winter hazards in the next 7 to 10 days. /BR-y
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