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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 244 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
.gale warning in effect until 4 pm pst this afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 15 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt in the late evening and overnight. Wind waves sw 9 ft at 8 seconds. NW swell 14 to 15 ft at 13 seconds...shifting to the W 13 to 14 ft at 13 seconds in the evening, then... Subsiding to 10 to 12 ft at 12 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Showers.
Mon..S wind 30 kt. Wind waves sw 11 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 10 to 11 ft at 13 seconds...building to nw 13 to 14 ft at 17 seconds in the afternoon. Showers.
Mon night..S wind 30 kt. Wind waves sw 11 ft at 9 seconds. NW swell 11 to 12 ft at 16 seconds... Becoming W 8 to 9 ft at 15 seconds after midnight. SWell less than 2 ft. Showers.
Tue..S wind 20 to 25 kt with occasional gusts to 40 kt. Wind waves sw 10 ft at 8 seconds. SWell nw 9 to 10 ft at 15 seconds... Building to W 15 ft at 22 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 6 ft at 8 seconds. SWell W 16 to 18 ft at 18 seconds. Rain.
Wed..W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 13 to 15 ft at 16 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves sw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 11 to 13 ft at 15 seconds. Showers and slight chance of tstms in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Thu..SW wind 15 kt...veering to nw after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 12 to 14 ft at 13 seconds.
Fri..E wind 10 kt...veering to S after midnight. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds...shifting to the se 2 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. W swell 11 ft at 12 seconds...subsiding to 9 ft at 11 seconds. SWell less than 2 ft.

PZZ300 244 Pm Pst Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A prolonged period of active weather will continue well into next week. Periods of gusty south to southwest winds will be common, along with southerly wind waves and long period west swell. Gales and steep to very steep seas are expected north of gold beach again on Monday. Very large, long period west swell then arrives Tuesday into early Wednesday. Additional disturbances during the second half of the week will likely not be as strong.

FXUS66 KMFR 040021 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 421 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
04/00Z TAFs...A frontal system over southwest Oregon will slowly weaken and lift north overnight. This is resulting in a wide variety of conditions with areas of mountain obscuration, and gusty low level south to southwest winds. Meantime, light to moderate rain and areas of LIFR/IFR continue mainly for Curry, Coos, and Douglas counties. However, there are areas of MVFR and light rain across the area.

Precipitation will diminish late tonight into Monday morning, lingering longest near the coast. As it diminishes, areas of VFR will increase. But, areas of valley LIFR are likely to form, including at Medford. Conditions are expected to improve by Monday afternoon, continuing into Monday evening. -DW

MARINE
Updated 230 PM Sunday December 3, 2023...A prolonged period of active weather will continue well into next week. Gusty south to southwest winds will be common, along with southerly wind waves and long period west swell.

Winds will subside later tonight but only to increase once again on Monday through Tuesday morning. Gales are expected once again, especially north of Cape Blanco. In addition, Seas may become very high at 15 to 19 ft on Monday and again as they build to a peak of around 16 to 20 ft at 19 seconds on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Additional disturbances Wednesday and Thursday will not be as strong, with high and steep seas slowly diminishing into Friday.

-Schaaf/Guerrero

BEACH HAZARDS
Active weather continues into next week. A series of fronts will move through the region during this time along with multiple moderate to high swell trains. An extended period of sustained wave action is expected through Tuesday. Breaking waves of 15 to 20 ft will coincide with higher than normal ocean levels, leading to an increased risk of beach erosion. Additionally, there is a minor risk of sneaker waves as these swell trains build into the waters. Confidence is low, however, considering wind wave interference is likely to limit, but not completely negate the sneaker threat.

Late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, very large breaking waves of 20 to 30 ft are expected due to large long period west swell. In addition, another moderate risk for sneaker waves will also be present Tuesday evening. If venturing to area beaches during this time, use caution when visiting and remember to never turn your back on the ocean! -BPN

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 246 PM PST Sun Dec 3 2023/

SHORT TERM...The Curry County Beach Safety Officer sent information this morning about ponding on roadways near Hunter Creek, and a Flood Advisory is in effect through 4 AM Monday. A video sent in shows water running into cow fields between mile marker 2 and 3 on Highway 42, where the Adivsory is also in effect.
These reports are very helpful, so please remember you can always send us reports with photos or videos on our social media pages.
There is also a Flood Watch in effect through Wednesday afternoon for the coast and this extends out through Scottsburg, Sitkum and Agness. This Flood Watch is in effect because of the repeating heavy rain events ahead, and the heaviest part of this will be tonight and then once again Tuesday into Wednesday.

Temperatures will be hard to cool with the moist air still present.
With that, overnight temperatures could near record warm lows the next few mornings! Medford's record warm low for Monday, December 4th is 46 degrees set in 2012 with a forecast low of 47. December 5th has a record warm low of 49 degrees from 2003, and the forecast low is 48 degrees.

The coast will also near record warm low criteria for Monday, December 4th and Tuesday, December 5th. The current record for the 4th is 53 degrees from 1987 and the 5th currently sits at 53 degrees from 1987. The 4th has a forecast low of 51 degrees with the 5th at 52 degrees, and there is a 95-99% probability to reach 50 degrees on Tuesday.

If you're looking forward to warmer temperatures, this afternoon will have temperatures in the 40s and 50s with a slight warmup tomorrow afternoon. However, Tuesday will be the warmest of the week with highs in the 50s and low 60s, and those 50s count for east side locations too! That would mean Tuesday afternoon will hold temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. A cold front will move through in the middle of the week and bring a return to near/slightly below normal highs. This translates to 40s west side and 30s east side. -Hermansen

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday. The extended period starts with with the last of a series of very wet systems that are accompanied by an good atmospheric river contribution. As the upper trough deepens offshore with a 140 KT jet digging behind this front stalls over the the west coast. By Wednesday night the atmospheric river contribution tapers off as the upper jet finally moves through the region.

The upper trough pattern transitions to a zonal flow pattern into Thursday before the models converge on an upper ridge building into the region by the end of the week. Until then almost all of the meteogram members of both the ECMWF and the GEFS are showing precipitation. With the models also coming into agreement with an upper ridge building in next weekend with the majority of the meteogram member showing no precipitation at the Medford airport next Saturday. -Sven

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday morning for ORZ021- 022.

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ORZ021>024.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for ORZ030-031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ350-370.

Gale Warning from 4 AM Monday to 10 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

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Reedsport
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:26 AM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:39 AM PST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:33 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:43 PM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
Click for Map
Sun -- 06:11 AM PST     5.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:32 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:24 AM PST     3.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:34 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:28 PM PST     5.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:39 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:51 PM PST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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