Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oakland, OR

AVIATION
12/00Z TAFs
A front is moving inland this evening.
Areas MVFR along the coast will become widespread this evening and spread inland overnight. Widespread MVFR with local IFR is expected from the Cascades west tonight and Monday morning, with areas of MVFR east of the Cascades. Widespread terrain obscurations are expected through Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, especially along the coast and over the marine waters through tonight. Conditions will improve to a mix of MVFR and VFR Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 201 PM PDT Sun May 11 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a mid level cloud deck along and west of the Cascades ans a high cirrus decks with some mid level clouds east of the Cascades. The mid level cloud pattern is one what is indicative of moderate to strong winds aloft, and many locations east of the Cascades are reporting moderate to occasionally strong winds. Given we still have several hours where stronger winds could mix down near the surface, we'll issue a Wind Advisory for most of Lake, eastern Klamath and Modoc Counties. Please see NPWMFR for more details.

Radar returns this far have been spotty with most centered along the coast and Douglas County and the outer marine waters. The trend over time is for showers to increase in coverage, but this may not materialize until late this afternoon. Therefore most locations could end up dry.

The satellite image also shows bans of cloud cover with convective characteristics moving into the outer marine waters. So far there's been no lightning. That could change in the next few hours, but it may not be until this evening and tonight where conditions will be favorable for isolated storms over the marine waters as cold air aloft between -25 and -28C at 500mb move in. The upper trough will push into the area during the day Sunday. The general consensus among the CAMS (convective allowing models that show radar reflectivity supports this thinking. Afternoon temperatures will be cooler for the interior, but they are still expected to be near normal. Also if there's enough breaks in the cloud cover, afternoon temperatures could end up higher than whats in the forecast.

Showers are likely this evening through Monday with a decent amount of precipitation for this time of the year. Precip amounts will be highest along the south coast, coastal mountains and to some extent the Cascades. Guidance has trended towards more instability for most of the interior as early as late Monday morning, but most likely from about midday Monday into early Monday evening. At the same time cold air aloft with 500mb temperatures near -27C remain over the marine waters that could result in isolated thunderstorms.

Snow levels will lower to around 4500 feet tonight. However, the prolonged stretch of warm weather will be sufficient enough keep road snow accumulations in check. Even then it will be limited to the overnight hours tonight.

Tuesday will be a transition day with the upper trough moving south of the forecast area. Showers will linger Tuesday morning, along the Cascades and portions of the east side, with most locations dry Tuesday afternoon. Guidance hints at marginal instability in portions of Lake and eastern Modoc County Tuesday afternoon and kept in a slight chance of thunder.

The upper trough will shift east of the area Tuesday night with showers diminishing and ending with dry and milder weather expected Wednesday. The ensembles and clusters point towards dry and milder weather for the latter part of next week, possibly into next weekend. The operational models, ensembles and some of the clusters (about 50%) show general troughiness with a somewhat weak upper trough moving into the area Saturday which could bring result in precipitation along the north coast and Cascades. -Petrucelli

MARINE
Updated 100 PM Saturday, May 11, 2025
A seasonably strong front will push through the region today, and conditions will deteriorate into the evening. Southerly winds are increasing as a front approaches, and as it moves onshore there will be a brief period when gale force gusts possible north of Cape Blanco this afternoon. Seas will become steep across all waters by this afternoon, but the highest seas will be north of Cape Blanco where localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas are possible in those waters.

This system will linger through Tuesday maintaining periods of rain/showers with isolated thunderstorms (10-15%) possible this afternoon and evening. Winds ease on Monday, but increasing westerly swell will maintain steep seas through at least Wednesday morning. A pattern change on Wedensday will bring the return of the thermal trough and the associated gusty north winds and wind seas. /BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ029>031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.