Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Orchard Beach, ME

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Orchard Beach, ME

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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 282335 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 735 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
A return to more seasonable temperatures is expected on Memorial Day behind a backdoor cold front. Temperatures will then warm to well above average once again towards the middle of next week with no wetting rains expected. A cold front will then cross late in the week bringing our best chance for scattered showers along with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
Update...
Latest radar imagery continues to show a fine line over central Maine which represents our back door cold front this evening.
This feature will reach the cross through northern areas early this evening before crossing the Midcoast region between 01Z and 02Z according to the latest Namnest solution. A few clouds will accompany the front, but mainly its impact will be an abrupt wind shift with a period of gusty winds this evening.

Otherwise, only made minor adjustments to the forecast.
Temperatures continue to overachieve this evening with readings in the 80s over southern and central areas as of 23Z after reaching 90 degrees in some areas during the afternoon. Mixing through a very deep layer allowed a southwesterly component aloft to mix to the surface and push the coastal front back out over the ocean.

There also remains a large fluctuation in surface dew points from north to south. The highest readings remain over southernmost New Hampshire and coastal Maine.

Prev Disc...
The hot and strongly mixed day will take a while to cool this evening, especially as the late-May sun hangs in the sky through 8 PM (00Z) or so. That will change this evening and overnight, at least for a short while, as a cold front drops down from Canada. Looking at satellite in tandem with Canadian radar and observations, aside from cumulus and briefly gusty winds, there's not much going on with the front itself so I'm not expecting much more than perhaps a sprinkle or so across the north when the front arrives this evening. While mixing from the front itself will keep a northeasterly breeze through the evening and overnight, keeping temperatures fairly mild, cold advection will still bring cooler conditions at least to northern zones... with lows in the 40s and 50s. Southern interior zones may not cool past 60 however.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
By about dawn on Monday, the cold front will be pushing through southern New England with high pressure building in its wake from Quebec. As the front continues south, so will high pressure, and by the end of the day will be centered over Nova Scotia and the Gulf of Maine.

For sensible weather... light northwesterly flow will be gradually overtaken by onshore flow at the surface. So while temperatures will quickly warm with full sunshine and mixing, cooler maritime air will push inland and plateau or in some places reverse the warming trend. The question is how much warming occurs in a given location before the sea breeze arrives... and what sort of impact the breeze has on the boundary layer. Toward the west, full diurnal heating and mixing can be expected with highs in the upper- 70s to around 80. For the ocean beaches, islands, and necks, you'll be lucky to see 60 degrees. I would expect easterly flow earlier in the day would have more of an impact south of Portland, allowing the interior Midcoast to warm further before winds turn more southeasterly. In general upper-60s to mid-70s can be expected before the wind shift occurs but the warmer and cooler spots remain a bit uncertain.

High pressure builds across the region Monday night as an upper level ridge nudges closer overhead from the west. This will allow the PGF to relax a bit which along with subsidence with the ridge should lead to a nice radiational cooling night. Dew points will thus be key to the overnight low temperature forecast. There's some general model signal for temperatures in the 30s in the usual valley locations... but am not ready to grab a hold of any one location just yet, so have a fairly broad-brushed low-40s forecast with a couple places dipping into the upper-30s
Somebody, somewhere will probably get a frost
but will have to wait and see where.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Overview: Rex blocking will remain in place through much of the extended portion of the forecast, which will translate to continued dry conditions with well above average temperatures. Our best chance for scattered showers will arrive on Friday and Saturday as a cold front crosses through the area.

Impacts: Near record high temperatures are possible on both Wednesday and Thursday. The lack of appreciable rainfall may result in an expansion of abnormally dry conditions.

Forecast Details: Large scale ridging will remain firmly in place on Tuesday as sfc high pressure moves over the Gulf of Maine. This will promote a southerly onshore flow, keeping highs primarily into the 70s to near 80 degrees across the interior and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny and it will therefore be a rather pleasant day. Mainly clear skies will continue on Tuesday night but increasing dew points will result in warm overnight lows only into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Increasing WAA on Wednesday as high pressure builds to our southwest will result in a warmer day with highs primarily into the middle to upper 80s with a few 90 degree readings possible. These readings will be 15-20 degrees above average with a few record highs possible. Wednesday night will be warm with lows only falling into the middle to upper 50s. Near record highs will then once again be possible on Thursday as we remain under the influence of sfc high pressure and 850mb temperatures climb to around +22C. One thing to note is the potential for developing onshore during the afternoon, which would keep coastal spots a little cooler. The current forecast calls for highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s across much of the region. Another warm night is then likely on Thursday night with some places perhaps not falling below 60 degrees.

A cold front is then likely to cross during the Friday to Saturday timeframe, bringing our best chance for scattered showers. Depending on the timing of the frontal passage thunderstorms will be possible given the warm preceding airmass and therefore left slight chance thunder in the grids.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Short Term...VFR prevails at all terminals through the next couple days and nights. Westerly flow, southwesterly along the coast, today turns northerly this evening and then northeasterly overnight as a cold front drops southward through the region...
remaking at a steady 5-10 kt clip, strongest along the coast with perhaps a brief gust and/or sprinkle as the front passes a given terminal. Northeasterly flow prevails early and inland on Monday, and turns southeasterly as a sea breeze / onshore flow develops first along the coast before spreading inland through the afternoon and evening. Winds diminish to calm or light and variable tomorrow night.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected with daily sea breeze chances across coastal TAF sites such as KPSM, KPWM, and KRKD. A cold front will then arrive as we approach Friday, possibly bringing scattered SHRA.

MARINE
Short Term...A cold front drops through the waters tonight with winds briefly gusting above 20 kts, perhaps briefly touching 25 kts a time or two as winds turn northeasterly. High pressure builds into the coastal waters tomorrow and strengthens tomorrow night, with winds turning southeasterly and then southerly...
diminishing in the process.

Long Term...High pressure will remain in control through next week, allowing for light winds and seas below SCA criteria.
Daily sea breezes are also likely to develop.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Portland, ME

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KPWM

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Wind History from PWM (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Old Orchard Beach, Maine

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