Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Old Orchard Beach, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery and ASOS/AWOS observations indicate that low-level stratus has moved onshore and pushed inland across much of western ME south of the foothills as well as portions of southeastern NH. Despite these low ceilings, surface visibility has yet to be impacted in most locations so far this morning but at least some patchy fog remains possible. Northeast radar mosaic is beginning to show some weak returns moving into southwestern NH with a few reports of light rain in association with this activity. Latest hi-res guidance suggests these light showers/drizzle will continue to slowly progress northeastward through this morning. Temperatures are primarily into the 50s and these readings will remain nearly steady through sunrise.

Surface high pressure will remain northeast of the region today with anticyclonic low-level southerly flow prevailing over the local area. This combined with some increasing moisture from broad WAA aloft will result in a partly to mostly cloudy day with a few widely scattered light showers possible. The added cloud cover combined with the onshore flow off the cool Gulf of Maine will limit high temperatures to the 60s in most locations, although parts of northern NH and towards the Moosehead Lake region could reach the lower to middle 70s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
A subtle H5 s/wv trof and associated vort max will cross this evening, which will provide some added forcing for ascent and thus and increased chance for scattered showers. Rainfall amounts of between 0.10-0.20" are possible with perhaps a few spots nearing 1/3rd of an inch. Patchy fog will once again be possible with low temperatures generally within a few degrees either side of 60.

A weak triple point will cross southern Quebec on Wednesday, sending a sfc warm front northward across NH and portions of southwestern ME. This will place much of the region into the warm sector with high temperatures rebounding back into the 70s to near 80 degrees (warmest inland). Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and a few diurnally driven showers/storms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Evening Update...No major changes to the long term portion of the forecast with the implementation of the latest long range NBM. Thursday remains the day to watch with a potent cold front progged to sweep through the area with very warm daytime temperatures. Depending on timing, a few strong to severe storms are possible.

Previous Discussion...
Showers will mostly fizzle out Wednesday evening, and then based on the light southerly flow continuing, will probably see a return of fog and low stratus overnight that lingers into Thursday morning.

A more potent cold front approaches on Thursday, and once the low clouds and fog lift in the morning, it looks to be a hot day with temperatures away from the coast reaching the mid 80s to low 90s based on sounding profiles, perhaps mid 90s in NH. This front will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area, with the highest chances being across western and northern locations at this time, and some storms have the potential to be strong to severe depending on the timing of the front. There are lesser chances of storms to the south and east of the I-95 corridor where the seabreeze is more likely to bring in the more stable marine layer.

The cold front quickly passes Thursday night with it becoming breezy either late Thursday night or Friday morning and then continuing during the day Friday. At this point in time, I have trended the forecast higher than the NBM on wind gusts, but these may need to be bumped up more in the future. Forecast soundings suggest 30-40 mph, but there may be a window where gusts could top out in the 40-50 mph range, per the top of the mixed layer. High temperatures will come down from those of Thursday, but still expecting it to be warm with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

A 500mb high becomes centered over the southeast US with the ridge axis extending northward across the Great Lakes on Saturday and then across much of the eastern US by Sunday. While this will bring generally dry weather here, it doesn't mean that the weekend will be completely dry as being on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge can sometimes bring waves in on the northwest flow. The operational GFS/ECMWF are latching onto a shortwave in what almost would resemble an MCS sometime over the weekend, but there is much disagreement on the timing and location of the wave this far out other than the possibility is there.

Going into early next week, there is a growing signal in the global models for a strong ridge of high pressure to further expand over the eastern CONUS. Whether or not it extends far enough north into New England to keep any waves in the west to northwest flow and precip chances north of the area remains to be seen, but there is more confidence in bringing in very warm to hot conditions. With the 850mb temperatures being advertised, highs could get into the 80s to low 90s Monday and then possibly hotter just beyond the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Low ceilings combined with patchy FG will continue to result in IFR to LIFR restrictions through much of today.
Some improvements are possible briefly this afternoon across some inland TAF sites before conditions deteriorate once again this evening. Scattered -SHRA/-DZ is also possible at times. Low ceilings and FG are then likely once again tonight with IFR/LIFR restrictions. At least some improvement is then expected on Wednesday but some restrictions could linger, especially at coastal sites. Scattered showers and perhaps -tsra will also be possible. Southerly flow of 5-15 kts will prevail through the period. No LLWS is currently anticipated.

Long Term...A similar story is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with LIFR to IFR conditions with low stratus and fog possible with improvement during the day. A cold front does approach and brings another chance of showers and storms during the day Thursday evening and then diminishing in the evening. Behind the front, sites with any restrictions will return to VFR with west winds picking up Thursday night into Friday with some potential for gusts 30-35 kt. Mainly VFR Friday through Saturday with a few showers possible Friday afternoon.

MARINE
Short Term...Southerly flow will prevail through the period along with marine fog/stratus at times but winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds.

Long Term...A cold front approaches Thursday and crosses later in the day or Thursday night and may reach SCA criteria that last through portions of Friday. Another weak front may cross on Friday before high pressure builds in south of the waters to start the weekend, offering improving conditions. Another weak low may approach the waters around Sunday. Also expect fog to continue at times over the waters through Thursday or Thursday night until the front passes.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.