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PZZ350 Coastal Waters From Florence To Cape Blanco Or Out 10 Nm- 839 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 5 pm pdt this afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 ft in the afternoon. Mixed swell W 6 ft at 14 seconds and W 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds. Chance of rain.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell nw 5 to 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Wed night..N wind 15 to 25 kt...easing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. SWell W 4 ft.
Thu..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. SWell W 3 ft.
Thu night..NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..E wind 10 kt...veering to s. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and W 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..S wind 5 kt...rising to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft.

PZZ300 839 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A brief period of improved conditions is expected today as winds diminish. The thermal trough returns late this afternoon and continues into Thursday morning with moderate to strong north winds and steep wind driven seas. Winds and seas will diminish Thursday afternoon.

FXUS66 KMFR 032128 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 228 PM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

DISCUSSION
Satellite imagery this afternoon is still showing plenty of stratocumulus clouds out there, focused near and north of the Siskiyous, near and west of the Cascades and over the East Side. Even so, holes are opening up and many areas will enjoy a mixture of clouds and sunshine through late afternoon. Recent moisture and rainfall, especially in the valleys west of the Cascades, will result in areas of low clouds and fog overnight into Wednesday morning.

With the upper ridge building in tonight, expect the development of a surface thermal trough in NorCal/SW Oregon, a strengthening low-level inversion and some offshore flow (east-northeast winds).
The strongest winds (10-20 mph) will be prevalent over the upper slopes/ridges (gusts of 25-30 mph), but some will also likely descend through the Chetco River Valley resulting in some warming all the way to the coast at Brookings at midweek (highs well into the 70s, even possibly the 80s tomorrow/Thu).

The upper ridge will build strongly over the region Wednesday through Saturday resulting in a several day period of warm, dry fall weather. The peak of the warmth inland will be Thu-Sat with temperatures ranging from 5-15F degrees above normal. This puts Medford into the upper 80s (15-25% chance of 90F) for highs all 3 days. Best chance for 90F is Friday. Friday also coincides with the surface thermal trough/low moving northward and offshore. This pattern often brings the warmer weather to places on the coast that don't usually get it, like North Bend. Right now, we're forecasting 80F there on Friday. There will be a surge of stratus up the coast Friday into Saturday, eventually with a chance of drizzle over the coastal waters and at the immediate coast (best chance Saturday), where it will turn cooler due to the flow becoming onshore. But, it will remain dry and warm elsewhere.

Models continue to show the upper ridge pushing eastward and breaking down over the weekend with another significant front approaching the coast by early next week (Mon/Tue). Confidence in the overall pattern is high due to strong model agreement, but, of course, at this range there will be uncertainties in frontal strength/timing. -Spilde



AVIATION
03/18Z TAFS...Along the coast and just offshore, MVFR ceilings are mostly confined north of Cape Blanco, with VFR ceilings for most locations south of Cape Blanco. However localized LIFR ceilings are being observed in Gold Beach and Brookings. The trend is for ceilings to improve during the day as the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere dry out, with VFR ceilings expected between 20-21z. Guidance shows drying to continue tonight with breezy northeast winds and a dry air mass at 925 mb winds (approximately 2500 ft) tonight into Wednesday, which should be sufficient enough to keep low clouds and fog from developing. However patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the deeper valleys near and at the coast towards 14z.

Inland west of the Cascades, plenty of cloud cover remains as of this writing, but the trend is for the cloud cover to gradually dissipate as a drier air mass moves into the area. Medford is bordering on IFR and MVFR ceilings, but this should only last for couple more hours with ceilings improving to MVFR, then VFR.
However, the terrain will likely remain at least partly obscured until 21-22z. Roseburg will remain VFR with the surrounding terrain remaining partly obscured until 22z.

VFR ceilings will continue into most of the overnight period, then will be trickier late tonight. Skies will remain clear. However, due to existing moisture from the recent rains, it's more likely for fog and low clouds to form in Roseburg late tonight, then burning off late Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, dry northeast winds are expected in the Rogue Valley not far from the surface which could be enough to keep fog from forming. However, we could not rule out patchy fog at Medford with a reduction in vertical visibility towards 14z and this has been added to the TAF. Any lower conditions at Medford should last only a couple of hours with VFR conditions returning.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, however the higher terrain will remain partly obscured until 22z. -Petrucelli



MARINE
Updated 200 PM October 3, 2023...Seas and north winds will increase this afternoon and evening as thermal trough strengthens. These winds will increase further tonight and Wednesday. Winds will be moderate to strong across the waters, with strongest winds and highest seas from Cape Blanco south.

North winds may approach gale force strength from near Gold Beach southward, especially across the waters beyond 3 nm from shore. Seas will be wind driven and steep to very steep with highest seas from just north of Cape Blanco southward. Seas are expected to be near 10 to 12 feet in the outer waters from Cape Blanco south. Some of these higher seas are expected into the inner zone south of Cape Blanco, mainly beyond 3 nm from shore. North of Cape Blanco, expect mainly steep seas and moderate winds.

Winds will gradually lower Wednesday night through Thursday but expect lingering steep to very steep seas through at least Thursday morning. Lighter winds and seas will develop on Friday and Saturday.
Another front will likely be impacting the waters Monday with gusty south winds. Low pressure will develop near the Alaska Panhandle Sunday and will send an increasing fresh west swell over the waters Monday. -Petrucelli

FIRE WEATHER
Updated 200 PM October 3, 2023...High pressure will build over the area Wednesday and Thursday then persist through the weekend bringing a warming and drying trend. A surface thermal trough will strengthen this evening and Wednesday along the coast.
This will result in breezy to gusty northeast flow across the mountains, from the Cascades west. Recoveries will trend lower tonight and Wednesday night, with moderate recoveries over the mountains in Curry, western Josephine and western Siskiyou Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Dry daytime humidities and gusty north to northeast winds are also expected over Curry, western Josephine and western Siskiyou Counties Wednesday afternoon.

As the thermal trough builds north Thursday night and Friday winds will decrease along the coastal mountains and western Siskiyou County but continue to be breezy to gusty across the Cascades Mountains.
Expect moderate recoveries over the ridges and dry daytime humidities across inland areas Thursday night and Friday. Daytime temperatures will be much warmer than normal on Thursday and Friday across the area. Dry conditions continue into the weekend but winds will be lighter and temperatures will trend lower on Sunday.

Early next week, models indicate another moist frontal system will gradually move into the area Monday and Tuesday. Ahead of the front, expect gusty south to southwest winds, especially east of the Cascades Sunday and Monday afternoon. Then, expect increased chances for widespread wetting rain Monday night through Tuesday as rain spreads into the area. -CC



MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-370-376.

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Reedsport
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Tue -- 05:09 AM PDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:32 AM PDT     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:36 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:25 PM PDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:38 PM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Reedsport, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

Gardiner
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Tue -- 04:54 AM PDT     5.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:17 AM PDT     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:36 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 04:10 PM PDT     7.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:23 PM PDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gardiner, Umpqua River, Oregon, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,