Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bellevue, ID

SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday Night.
Early morning satellite imagery shows a departing H5 shortwave trough over the Continental Divide as a H5 low in the NE Pacific continues its progression east towards the Pacific Coast.
Increasingly clear skies behind that exiting shortwave trough is leading to great viewing conditions for the Northern Lights early this morning courtesy of a G4 severe geomagnetic storm. As a ridge of high pressure fills in behind this exiting trough, look for seasonably warm and dry conditions to continue as that low in the NE Pacific moves onshore to NRN California and Oregon Friday night into Saturday. That system is expected to significantly weaken as it works east into the Great Basin over the Cascades as it encounters a broad region of well established high pressure situated over the Rockies. What we will see in our region will be an increase in cloud cover on Saturday and perhaps a 5-10% chance of showers in the mountains but conditions are expected to remain predominantly dry as that much weaker low ultimately tracks out of our area. Highs each day will be in the 70s to low 80s or about 15 degrees above normal for mid-October. MacKay

LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.
A low pressure system will work through the Great Basin during the early part of next week. However, the atmosphere is way too dry for any precipitation from this system. High temps during the early part of the week will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Very good model consensus with a longwave trough moving into the area midweek. Looks like Wednesday we'll see an associated cold front arrive. This system will bring some light precipitation to the region along with temps about 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the latter half of next week. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty, but depending upon how deep the trough is, we could see some light snow towards the end of next week in some of our mid-slope elevations. 13

AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday.
Expect vfr conditions today and winds look light. Typical upvalley wind will probably develop at SUN, probably similar to Thursday in terms of speed and wind direction. Most likely a tail wind in the afternoon around 10 kts but without gusts. 13

FIRE WEATHER
Under the continued influence of a broad region of high pressure over the NRN Rockies, look for continued seasonably warm and dry conditions with light winds through early next week. A low currently situated in the NE Pacific will move onshore to NRN California and Oregon Friday night into Saturday and is expected to significantly weaken as it works over the Cascades into the Great Basin. What we will see in our region will be an increase in cloud cover on Saturday and perhaps a 5-10% chance of showers in the mountains but conditions are expected to remain predominantly dry as that much weaker low ultimately tracks out of our area. The EPS/GEFS models remain in continued agreement on a pattern change starting around that late Wednesday/Thursday timeframe as a deep area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska begins to work SE with widespread precipitation chances and much cooler temperatures. A cold front associated with this system would work to force the persistent ridge feature overhead to our east and is the best signal we have seen for precipitation and seasonably cool temperatures since mid-September. MacKay

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.