Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
July 2, 2024 11:26 PM MDT (05:26 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 9:20 PM Moonrise 1:52 AM Moonset 5:46 PM |
FXUS65 KPIH 022110 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 310 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Today and Wednesday.
High pressure will dominate the area today with weak northwest flow aloft. Expect mostly clear skies and dry conditions outside of the Montana Divide area. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Montana divide late this afternoon. Winds at the surface have become more westerly but will remain light overall. Temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees below normal this afternoon.
Tomorrow a weak trough will pass over western Montana. Winds will be breezy especially for our southwestern areas, Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Hills, where gusts of around 30 to 35 mph are expected. Most of our western areas will be very dry, with relative humidity mostly below 15%. See fire weather discussion for impacts for critical fire weather winds and relative humidity.
There will be a slight chance of mountain thunderstorms in the Island Park area tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will increase slightly tomorrow but remain below normal. There is a lake wind advisory for the American Falls reservoir for tomorrow afternoon into the early evening.
Wyatt
LONG TERM
Thursday through next Tuesday.
Under the increasing influence of high pressure through the extended forecast period, temperatures will see a gradual warming trend into next week as conditions remain very dry. Remaining in broad NW flow through the weekend given the H5 ridge axis placement to our west and a broad troughing pattern over the CNTRL CONUS, the warming trend in our area will be suppressed slightly with much warmer conditions further south and east given the H5 ridge axis placement not directly overhead us. As this ridge axis shifts overhead late this weekend into early next week, supported by the majority of ensemble models and cluster solutions, high temperatures will climb to the warmest levels seen so far this year. Across our lower elevations, highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 100s which will approach near record to record levels across central and eastern Idaho for this time of year. For reference, normal daytime highs for this time of year are in the upper 70s to upper 80s in the valleys which would make this warmth about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early to mid July. Little changes in the upper-level flow pattern will keep this ridge of high pressure in place through all of next week our hot and dry pattern persisting.
MacKay
AVIATION
High pressure in light northwest flow aloft will bring VFR conditions with overall light winds and mostly clear skies this afternoon into this evening. Winds will become breezy tomorrow as a trough passes over western Montana. Look for wind gusts tomorrow afternoon for all TAF sites of around 20 to 30 mph with KBYI and KPIH having the strongest winds.
Wyatt
FIRE WEATHER
Seasonably cool and mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday as a passing trough in Montana helps to introduce isolated showers and thunderstorms in addition to near critical to critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday. Elevated winds aloft and moisture passing along the Continental Divide will be the primary driver of these hazards with best chances for showers and storms (10-30% chance) across ERN 475/476, NRN 410, and along all of 411. Winds will be breezy regionwide tomorrow, peaking during the afternoon with gusts to around 30-45 mph. Given humidities in that 8- 15% range for 425 and 427, the combination of the very dry surface conditions and winds has led to our first RED FLAG WARNING issuance of the year which will be in effect from 1200 to 2100 tomorrow. Near critical fire weather conditions will also exist across lower elevations of other FWZs with the strongest winds expected across 425/427 and to a lesser extent in 410/413.
Behind this exiting system to our NE in Montana for Thursday, temperatures will remain seasonably cool aided by prevailing NW flow aloft. This will be in stark contrast to what is being observed further southwest of us where a broad H5 ridge of high pressure is in place which is leading to much warmer conditions. Under the increasing influence of this high pressure through the weekend, we will see temperatures gradually warm into early next week with our position on the ERN periphery doing us a favor in keeping the warmest temperatures at bay until late this week into early next week. During that timeframe, the H5 ridge axis will shift directly overhead which will lead to highs climbing into the 90s to low 100s for our lower elevations, marking the warmest air mass moving into our region so far this year. Little changes in the upper-level flow pattern will keep this ridge of high pressure in place through all of next week our hot and dry pattern persisting.
MacKay
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ425-427.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 310 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SHORT TERM
Today and Wednesday.
High pressure will dominate the area today with weak northwest flow aloft. Expect mostly clear skies and dry conditions outside of the Montana Divide area. There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Montana divide late this afternoon. Winds at the surface have become more westerly but will remain light overall. Temperatures will be 4 to 8 degrees below normal this afternoon.
Tomorrow a weak trough will pass over western Montana. Winds will be breezy especially for our southwestern areas, Eastern Magic Valley and Southern Hills, where gusts of around 30 to 35 mph are expected. Most of our western areas will be very dry, with relative humidity mostly below 15%. See fire weather discussion for impacts for critical fire weather winds and relative humidity.
There will be a slight chance of mountain thunderstorms in the Island Park area tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will increase slightly tomorrow but remain below normal. There is a lake wind advisory for the American Falls reservoir for tomorrow afternoon into the early evening.
Wyatt
LONG TERM
Thursday through next Tuesday.
Under the increasing influence of high pressure through the extended forecast period, temperatures will see a gradual warming trend into next week as conditions remain very dry. Remaining in broad NW flow through the weekend given the H5 ridge axis placement to our west and a broad troughing pattern over the CNTRL CONUS, the warming trend in our area will be suppressed slightly with much warmer conditions further south and east given the H5 ridge axis placement not directly overhead us. As this ridge axis shifts overhead late this weekend into early next week, supported by the majority of ensemble models and cluster solutions, high temperatures will climb to the warmest levels seen so far this year. Across our lower elevations, highs will climb into the upper 80s to low 100s which will approach near record to record levels across central and eastern Idaho for this time of year. For reference, normal daytime highs for this time of year are in the upper 70s to upper 80s in the valleys which would make this warmth about 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early to mid July. Little changes in the upper-level flow pattern will keep this ridge of high pressure in place through all of next week our hot and dry pattern persisting.
MacKay
AVIATION
High pressure in light northwest flow aloft will bring VFR conditions with overall light winds and mostly clear skies this afternoon into this evening. Winds will become breezy tomorrow as a trough passes over western Montana. Look for wind gusts tomorrow afternoon for all TAF sites of around 20 to 30 mph with KBYI and KPIH having the strongest winds.
Wyatt
FIRE WEATHER
Seasonably cool and mostly dry conditions will continue through Wednesday as a passing trough in Montana helps to introduce isolated showers and thunderstorms in addition to near critical to critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday. Elevated winds aloft and moisture passing along the Continental Divide will be the primary driver of these hazards with best chances for showers and storms (10-30% chance) across ERN 475/476, NRN 410, and along all of 411. Winds will be breezy regionwide tomorrow, peaking during the afternoon with gusts to around 30-45 mph. Given humidities in that 8- 15% range for 425 and 427, the combination of the very dry surface conditions and winds has led to our first RED FLAG WARNING issuance of the year which will be in effect from 1200 to 2100 tomorrow. Near critical fire weather conditions will also exist across lower elevations of other FWZs with the strongest winds expected across 425/427 and to a lesser extent in 410/413.
Behind this exiting system to our NE in Montana for Thursday, temperatures will remain seasonably cool aided by prevailing NW flow aloft. This will be in stark contrast to what is being observed further southwest of us where a broad H5 ridge of high pressure is in place which is leading to much warmer conditions. Under the increasing influence of this high pressure through the weekend, we will see temperatures gradually warm into early next week with our position on the ERN periphery doing us a favor in keeping the warmest temperatures at bay until late this week into early next week. During that timeframe, the H5 ridge axis will shift directly overhead which will lead to highs climbing into the 90s to low 100s for our lower elevations, marking the warmest air mass moving into our region so far this year. Little changes in the upper-level flow pattern will keep this ridge of high pressure in place through all of next week our hot and dry pattern persisting.
MacKay
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ425-427.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
Wind History graph: SUN
(wind in knots)
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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