Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
July 26, 2024 6:07 PM MDT (00:07 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:23 AM Sunset 9:05 PM Moonrise 11:01 PM Moonset 11:45 AM |
FXUS65 KPIH 262034 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a departing cold front over the WRN Great Plains as a H5 trough shifts over the PacNW and NRN Rockies, bringing with a drier and cooler airmass in addition to increased wildfire smoke regionwide. Even given this drier environment in place today, PWATs around 0.50-0.80" will support isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across ERN Idaho with the HRRR model showing a 20-60% chance of thunder along and east of I-15 into Wyoming with less than a 20% chance elsewhere. The convective environment today will support around 800-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear, and 8- 9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support strong thunderstorms that will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40-60 mph, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Highs today will be in the 80s to low 90s with breezy synoptic winds supporting gusts to 20-40 mph.
A H5 low off the coast of NRN California this afternoon will move onshore tonight into Saturday and as it does, pick up a plume of monsoon moisture along the way. This moisture will build into SE Idaho starting Saturday morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning hours SE of the Snake Plain. These shower/thunderstorm chances will expand regionwide by the afternoon hours with the HRRR model showing a 40-90% chance of thunder across our entire CWA with an emphasis on a 70-90% chance across the Snake Plain into Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. In similar fashion to today, the convective environment Saturday will support 300-800 K/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 25-35 kt 0-6 km shear, and 7-9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will again support strong outflow wind gusts in that 40-60 mph range (locally stronger), small hail, and heavy rain. In addition, the SPC has outlined much of our region in a MARGINAL RISK (5-14% chance) of severe thunderstorms across much of SE Idaho for Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will drop after sunset with isolated activity lingering around the Yellowstone/Grand Teton NP region. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s which will mark the coolest day in our region since July 4th given this system's passage. MacKay
LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.
Sunday, expect southwest flow aloft as a weak wave passes well north of our area. Expect breezy winds on the surface with gusts of around 20 to 30 mph along with isolated, mostly afternoon mountain thunderstorms. Temperatures will be around normal on Sunday. Expect breezy southwest flow aloft to continue on Monday bringing afternoon gusty conditions. Little to no thunderstorms are expected on Monday. Temperatures look to rise slightly above normal on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday models show a weak wave move through the area bringing breezy winds and mostly isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures look to drop down to normal to slightly below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Late Wednesday into late next week high pressure builds back into the area. Expect dry and hot conditions Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal with lower elevations in the mid to upper 90s. A few areas may hit 100 degrees on Friday. Wyatt
AVIATION
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday.
Expect VFR conditions and breezy winds this afternoon for all TAF sites. Our area has breezy southwest flow aloft behind an exiting cold front today. There is enough moisture and instability for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in the mountains across our east and southeast. Only have vicinity thunderstorms for KDIJ this afternoon as the HRRR model shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms on station could bring brief MVFR conditions. The only other likely TAF site that may have thunderstorm impacts is KPIH. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms for KPIH from the HRRR model. However, thunderstorms look to develop just southwest of KPIH over the Portneuf mountains near Inkom this afternoon. Have held off on vicinity thunderstorms for this afternoon for KPIH for now.
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, expect thunderstorm impacts for all sites with a trough moving through southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around up to 35 to 50 mph are likely. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible, especially for KBYI.
Thunderstorms on station are possible as well, especially for KBYI, KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ. Wyatt
FIRE WEATHER
Following a departing cold front yesterday, RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in effect for FWZ 410, 422, 475, and 476 for a combination of low RH in the teens and wind gusts to around 25-40 mph. In addition today, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across FWZ 410, 411, and 413 with an emphasis on stronger storms supporting gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
For Saturday, another system rolls in from the Pacific and as a result we have gone ahead with RED FLAG WARNINGS for all zones outside of 422 for a mix of scattered wet and dry thunderstorms which will go in effect from 1200 to 2200 everywhere outside of FWZ 413 which will be from 0600 to 2200 given the threat of morning convection. Again, stronger storms will support gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning but given PWATs around 0.50-0.80" range, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist.
Following this systems exit to our NE on Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger in 410, 411, 413, 427, and 476 but coverage will drop across our region in comparison to Saturday. High pressure begins to build into early next week as a H5 trough passes over the NRN Rockies on Tuesday. As a result, conditions will remain mostly dry early next week outside of isolated showers and storms in Lemhi County with the primary focus on elevated winds peaking each afternoon which will support near critical to critical fire weather conditions given RHs in the teens and 20s. Following the exit of that trough, a H5 ridge axis will shift overhead and will lead to a warming trend through next week as conditions return to being very dry. MacKay
AIR QUALITY
The HRRR smoke model shows a large plume of smoke from Oregon and California wildfires as well as a large wildfire about 50 miles south of Mountain Home working through through our area today.
Meanwhile smoke from the Bench Lake Fire will overspread much of the Central mountains. Air quality in our northwest areas, Eastern Magic Valley, Shoshone, northern Arco desert, and southern Snake Plain fell to the "unhealthy" stages today. There are multiple Air Quality advisories out including Cassia, Lincoln, Minidoka, Custer, and Butte counties. There will likely be additional counties added to the Air Quality advisories today.
Wildfire smoke will likely hang around through the weekend and possibly into early next week across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, Lower Snake plain, and Central mountains. There could be some improvement Saturday afternoon across eastern Idaho as storms develop. These storms will allow for vertical mixing and may temporarily clear the atmosphere for a few hours. Expect continued degraded air quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next week. Wyatt
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ410-411- 425-427-475-476.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422-475- 476.
Red Flag Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ413.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024
SHORT TERM
Tonight through Saturday Night.
Early afternoon satellite imagery shows a departing cold front over the WRN Great Plains as a H5 trough shifts over the PacNW and NRN Rockies, bringing with a drier and cooler airmass in addition to increased wildfire smoke regionwide. Even given this drier environment in place today, PWATs around 0.50-0.80" will support isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development across ERN Idaho with the HRRR model showing a 20-60% chance of thunder along and east of I-15 into Wyoming with less than a 20% chance elsewhere. The convective environment today will support around 800-1200 J/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 20-30 kts of 0-6 km shear, and 8- 9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will support strong thunderstorms that will be capable of producing wind gusts to 40-60 mph, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Highs today will be in the 80s to low 90s with breezy synoptic winds supporting gusts to 20-40 mph.
A H5 low off the coast of NRN California this afternoon will move onshore tonight into Saturday and as it does, pick up a plume of monsoon moisture along the way. This moisture will build into SE Idaho starting Saturday morning with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible during the morning hours SE of the Snake Plain. These shower/thunderstorm chances will expand regionwide by the afternoon hours with the HRRR model showing a 40-90% chance of thunder across our entire CWA with an emphasis on a 70-90% chance across the Snake Plain into Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. In similar fashion to today, the convective environment Saturday will support 300-800 K/kg of SBCAPE, 1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE, 25-35 kt 0-6 km shear, and 7-9 degree/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. This environment will again support strong outflow wind gusts in that 40-60 mph range (locally stronger), small hail, and heavy rain. In addition, the SPC has outlined much of our region in a MARGINAL RISK (5-14% chance) of severe thunderstorms across much of SE Idaho for Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will drop after sunset with isolated activity lingering around the Yellowstone/Grand Teton NP region. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s and 80s which will mark the coolest day in our region since July 4th given this system's passage. MacKay
LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.
Sunday, expect southwest flow aloft as a weak wave passes well north of our area. Expect breezy winds on the surface with gusts of around 20 to 30 mph along with isolated, mostly afternoon mountain thunderstorms. Temperatures will be around normal on Sunday. Expect breezy southwest flow aloft to continue on Monday bringing afternoon gusty conditions. Little to no thunderstorms are expected on Monday. Temperatures look to rise slightly above normal on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday models show a weak wave move through the area bringing breezy winds and mostly isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures look to drop down to normal to slightly below normal on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Late Wednesday into late next week high pressure builds back into the area. Expect dry and hot conditions Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal with lower elevations in the mid to upper 90s. A few areas may hit 100 degrees on Friday. Wyatt
AVIATION
For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday.
Expect VFR conditions and breezy winds this afternoon for all TAF sites. Our area has breezy southwest flow aloft behind an exiting cold front today. There is enough moisture and instability for thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly in the mountains across our east and southeast. Only have vicinity thunderstorms for KDIJ this afternoon as the HRRR model shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms on station could bring brief MVFR conditions. The only other likely TAF site that may have thunderstorm impacts is KPIH. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms for KPIH from the HRRR model. However, thunderstorms look to develop just southwest of KPIH over the Portneuf mountains near Inkom this afternoon. Have held off on vicinity thunderstorms for this afternoon for KPIH for now.
Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, expect thunderstorm impacts for all sites with a trough moving through southwest flow aloft. Gusty outflow winds of around up to 35 to 50 mph are likely. Gusts up to 60 mph are possible, especially for KBYI.
Thunderstorms on station are possible as well, especially for KBYI, KPIH, KIDA, and KDIJ. Wyatt
FIRE WEATHER
Following a departing cold front yesterday, RED FLAG WARNINGS remain in effect for FWZ 410, 422, 475, and 476 for a combination of low RH in the teens and wind gusts to around 25-40 mph. In addition today, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across FWZ 410, 411, and 413 with an emphasis on stronger storms supporting gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.
For Saturday, another system rolls in from the Pacific and as a result we have gone ahead with RED FLAG WARNINGS for all zones outside of 422 for a mix of scattered wet and dry thunderstorms which will go in effect from 1200 to 2200 everywhere outside of FWZ 413 which will be from 0600 to 2200 given the threat of morning convection. Again, stronger storms will support gusty outflow winds in that 40-60 mph range, heavy rain, and frequent lightning but given PWATs around 0.50-0.80" range, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist.
Following this systems exit to our NE on Sunday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger in 410, 411, 413, 427, and 476 but coverage will drop across our region in comparison to Saturday. High pressure begins to build into early next week as a H5 trough passes over the NRN Rockies on Tuesday. As a result, conditions will remain mostly dry early next week outside of isolated showers and storms in Lemhi County with the primary focus on elevated winds peaking each afternoon which will support near critical to critical fire weather conditions given RHs in the teens and 20s. Following the exit of that trough, a H5 ridge axis will shift overhead and will lead to a warming trend through next week as conditions return to being very dry. MacKay
AIR QUALITY
The HRRR smoke model shows a large plume of smoke from Oregon and California wildfires as well as a large wildfire about 50 miles south of Mountain Home working through through our area today.
Meanwhile smoke from the Bench Lake Fire will overspread much of the Central mountains. Air quality in our northwest areas, Eastern Magic Valley, Shoshone, northern Arco desert, and southern Snake Plain fell to the "unhealthy" stages today. There are multiple Air Quality advisories out including Cassia, Lincoln, Minidoka, Custer, and Butte counties. There will likely be additional counties added to the Air Quality advisories today.
Wildfire smoke will likely hang around through the weekend and possibly into early next week across the Snake Plain, Magic Valley, Lower Snake plain, and Central mountains. There could be some improvement Saturday afternoon across eastern Idaho as storms develop. These storms will allow for vertical mixing and may temporarily clear the atmosphere for a few hours. Expect continued degraded air quality on Sunday with less confidence heading into early next week. Wyatt
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ410-411- 425-427-475-476.
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422-475- 476.
Red Flag Warning from 6 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ413.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSUN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSUN
Wind History graph: SUN
(wind in knots)
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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