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FXUS65 KPIH 051008 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 308 AM MST Tue Dec 5 2023

SHORT TERM
Today through Thu afternoon. Some upslope flow- generated flurries continue today, mostly in the northern half of the forecast area, both in central Idaho and along the ID-MT border. Elsewhere and otherwise, clearing skies should allow afternoon high temperatures to challenge some records today. On Wed afternoon, the southwest flow aloft continues to bring warm air into the region, but increasing cloud cover should make it a wash as far as any trend in temperatures. On Wed afternoon, precipitation should begin again in the central Idaho mountains, spreading southward and eastward during the day and reaching the ID-WY border after midnight on Wed night. As of now, precipitation appears to be light to moderate. The moderate will be in the mountains, while the heavily populated Snake River plain is low enough in elevation that night/morning snow will be followed by afternoon rain. And the lowest elevations should only get a rain event. Wind should approach very windy conditions, so Advisories may be needed for Thu, both Winter Weather and some sort of Wind highlight. Messick

LONG TERM
Thursday Night through next Tuesday.
Scattered to widespread snow showers will continue Thursday night into Friday associated with a secondary H5 trough in a series of H5 shortwaves working through the NRN Rockies later this week. Strong winds observed during the daytime hours on Thursday particularly across the Snake Plain will remain elevated overnight into Friday with gusts to around 20 to 40 mph. Increasingly dry conditions will return Friday night into Saturday as a transitory ridge of high pressure builds overhead. Colder, northerly flow will also lead to overnight lows in the single digits above and below zero with warmest areas in the teens as afternoon highs return to the 20s/30s.

Conditions will remain mostly dry Saturday morning ahead of increasing precipitation chances later in the day as an H5 trough moves onshore to the PacNW and WRN Canada bringing a return to scattered to widespread snow showers continuing into Sunday. As we remain on the SRN extent of this trough, temperatures will only see a minor increase supporting the potential for rain mixing in with snow below 5,000 feet for Sunday afternoon. While the NBM maintains isolated to scattered showers heading into Monday and Tuesday, both the ECMWF and GFS deterministic models keep best chances of precipitation south and east of the Snake Plain as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west leading to progressively warmer and drier conditions. MacKay

AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday.
With a ridge of high pressure situated overhead, lingering low-level moisture will continue to support areas of low stratus and patchy dense fog across the Snake Plain particularly around the Arco/Mud Lake Desert and Craters of the Moon NM. Best chances for MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS will exist at KIDA and KDIJ as predominant VFR conditions prevail at all other terminals. Mid and upper-level clouds will continue to pass overhead throughout the day into Wednesday as low clouds erode during the daytime hours. Areal coverage of fog and stratus tonight looks less than Tuesday morning, remaining confined to the Arco/Mud Lake Desert. Winds will remain light ahead of our next system arriving late Wednesday into Thursday with a mix of rain, snow, and gusty winds. MacKay

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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