Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hailey, ID

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:59AMSunset 5:06PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC) Moonrise 8:50PMMoonset 11:10AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hailey, ID
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location: 43.53, -114.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Pocatello, ID
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FXUS65 KPIH 152040 AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 140 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday. Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing low clouds throughout the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley as a broad disorganized trough advanced through the region. Light snow was noted in the Missoula area as a weak disturbance rotated SE through the panhandle on the WRN periphery of the aforementioned trough. The numerical models continue to show some light seeder-feeder snowfall within the Snake River Plain and ERN mountains tonight (although not as robust as previous model runs) as that disturbance shears SE through the region. Additional weaker disturbances follow Monday afternoon/evening while a ridge of high pressure expands along the NW coast. We should see progressively drier/clearer conditions work into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night as the ridge builds inland. The clearing will promote strong radiational cooling and well below normal temperature's Monday through at least Wednesday morning with some recovery Wednesday afternoon as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of the next incoming Pacific storm. Huston

LONG TERM. Wednesday night through next Sunday. A moist, westerly flow remains on tap following Wed's dry trough passage. The Canadian model initiates precip into the Central Mntns much earlier (Wed eve) than the GFS/ECMWF (midday Thurs), and we considered it an outlier. Continued to run with the reasonable NBM solution, which spreads snow showers across the forecast area late Thurs AM into the afternoon. Once again, the flow will target the higher-elevation, west-facing slopes for greatest accumulation, but this still isn't looking like a major event. Even looking at the NAM 75th percentile on 48-hour accumulation Thurs/Fri, most of the CWA picks up almost nothing, and the Central Mntns west of Challis/north of Hailey stay under 1 foot. AND, the long-range models are a bit more progressive in shutting off that moist flow with a building longwave ridge of high pressure by Fri night. Snow showers at lower elevations and in the Snake Plain may end up being pretty light and hit-and-miss. So, at this time, nothing looks particularly high impact outside of the Central Mntns as we finish out the week. Dry conditions are now expected Sat/Sun, with the region largely under the influence of the ridge. Temps look to increase a few degrees each day through the latter part of the week, trending a bit above climatological norms for this time of year. - KSmith

AVIATION. The main concern for aviation over the next 24-48 hours will be continued low stratus and patchy fog due to a very moist, post-storm low-level airmass. Generally MVFR cigs are expected to continue throughout the afternoon/eve, with almost no guidance lifting anything above 3,000 feet. Given the continued low-level saturation and lack of significant wind or any new system to clear things out, this makes perfect sense. Stratus should again intensify and lower tonight, probably back into IFR at KPIH/KIDA, and perhaps KDIJ (less confidence there), supported again by very light winds and the recent snowfall. We again used a combination of MOS guidance and the HRRR cig/vsby products to develop our cigs and FG/BR expectations in the TAFs (with the LAMP and the auto-generated MOS- based TAF guidance used as a sanity check). They aren't always right, but they have been doing well at capturing the flavor of things in these recent post-storm airmasses, and the degree of moisture running around right now makes the NAM time-heights and even some of the BUFKIT soundings nearly useless. Once again, we expect the stratus to be the greater issue, with fog more patchy due to the insulating cloud cover above. The greatest potential for LIFR and near-closure conditions exists at KIDA, especially after 11-12z. Meanwhile, KSUN should remain VFR for cigs/vsbys throughout the next 48 hours.

We do have a weak shortwave dropping across the region this afternoon/tonight, and some of the coarser, deterministic model projections do generate some snow shower/flurry activity with this. It stands to reason that any mid-level clouds associated with this feature (some observed upstream on satellite) moving over the low stratus could contribute ice nuclei to the lower deck and set up a seeder-feeder process. However, most of the high-res guidance (particularly the HREF ensembles) are fairly dry, so our confidence in snow showers hitting a given terminal is extremely low. Blanketed the TAFs with VCSH for now, and will make any needed adjustments based on radar/observational trends. - KSmith

PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hailey, Friedman Memorial Airport, ID2 mi23 minESE 510.00 miClear19°F12°F73%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUN

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Last 24hrSE6CalmCalmNW7W7NW6NW12NW9NW9NW10NW8NW8NW9NW8NW9NW8W8W5W6NW5CalmSE8SE8E5
1 day agoCalmSE4--CalmW4W6W5W3NW5NW6NW7NW7NW4NW6NW3NW6NW6NW8NW5W5SE4CalmCalmE6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNW5CalmSE9--SE3E3CalmNW5NW3CalmN5NW7NW7------------CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Pocatello, ID (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.