Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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|Sunrise 7:59AM||Sunset 5:06PM||Sunday December 15, 2019 2:13 PM MST (21:13 UTC)||Moonrise 8:50PM||Moonset 11:10AM||Illumination 83%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hailey, IDHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Pocatello, ID  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPIH 152040 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 140 PM MST Sun Dec 15 2019
SHORT TERM. Tonight through Wednesday. Early afternoon satellite imagery was showing low clouds throughout the Snake River Plain and Eastern Magic Valley as a broad disorganized trough advanced through the region. Light snow was noted in the Missoula area as a weak disturbance rotated SE through the panhandle on the WRN periphery of the aforementioned trough. The numerical models continue to show some light seeder-feeder snowfall within the Snake River Plain and ERN mountains tonight (although not as robust as previous model runs) as that disturbance shears SE through the region. Additional weaker disturbances follow Monday afternoon/evening while a ridge of high pressure expands along the NW coast. We should see progressively drier/clearer conditions work into the region Tuesday and Tuesday night as the ridge builds inland. The clearing will promote strong radiational cooling and well below normal temperature's Monday through at least Wednesday morning with some recovery Wednesday afternoon as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly ahead of the next incoming Pacific storm. Huston
LONG TERM. Wednesday night through next Sunday. A moist, westerly flow remains on tap following Wed's dry trough passage. The Canadian model initiates precip into the Central Mntns much earlier (Wed eve) than the GFS/ECMWF (midday Thurs), and we considered it an outlier. Continued to run with the reasonable NBM solution, which spreads snow showers across the forecast area late Thurs AM into the afternoon. Once again, the flow will target the higher-elevation, west-facing slopes for greatest accumulation, but this still isn't looking like a major event. Even looking at the NAM 75th percentile on 48-hour accumulation Thurs/Fri, most of the CWA picks up almost nothing, and the Central Mntns west of Challis/north of Hailey stay under 1 foot. AND, the long-range models are a bit more progressive in shutting off that moist flow with a building longwave ridge of high pressure by Fri night. Snow showers at lower elevations and in the Snake Plain may end up being pretty light and hit-and-miss. So, at this time, nothing looks particularly high impact outside of the Central Mntns as we finish out the week. Dry conditions are now expected Sat/Sun, with the region largely under the influence of the ridge. Temps look to increase a few degrees each day through the latter part of the week, trending a bit above climatological norms for this time of year. - KSmith
AVIATION. The main concern for aviation over the next 24-48 hours will be continued low stratus and patchy fog due to a very moist, post-storm low-level airmass. Generally MVFR cigs are expected to continue throughout the afternoon/eve, with almost no guidance lifting anything above 3,000 feet. Given the continued low-level saturation and lack of significant wind or any new system to clear things out, this makes perfect sense. Stratus should again intensify and lower tonight, probably back into IFR at KPIH/KIDA, and perhaps KDIJ (less confidence there), supported again by very light winds and the recent snowfall. We again used a combination of MOS guidance and the HRRR cig/vsby products to develop our cigs and FG/BR expectations in the TAFs (with the LAMP and the auto-generated MOS- based TAF guidance used as a sanity check). They aren't always right, but they have been doing well at capturing the flavor of things in these recent post-storm airmasses, and the degree of moisture running around right now makes the NAM time-heights and even some of the BUFKIT soundings nearly useless. Once again, we expect the stratus to be the greater issue, with fog more patchy due to the insulating cloud cover above. The greatest potential for LIFR and near-closure conditions exists at KIDA, especially after 11-12z. Meanwhile, KSUN should remain VFR for cigs/vsbys throughout the next 48 hours.
We do have a weak shortwave dropping across the region this afternoon/tonight, and some of the coarser, deterministic model projections do generate some snow shower/flurry activity with this. It stands to reason that any mid-level clouds associated with this feature (some observed upstream on satellite) moving over the low stratus could contribute ice nuclei to the lower deck and set up a seeder-feeder process. However, most of the high-res guidance (particularly the HREF ensembles) are fairly dry, so our confidence in snow showers hitting a given terminal is extremely low. Blanketed the TAFs with VCSH for now, and will make any needed adjustments based on radar/observational trends. - KSmith
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.
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|Hailey, Friedman Memorial Airport, ID||2 mi||23 min||ESE 5||10.00 mi||Clear||19°F||12°F||73%||1014.9 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSUN
Wind History from SUN (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||Calm||Calm||Calm||NW||Calm||SE||SE||E||Calm||NW||NW||Calm||N||NW||NW||Calm||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for Pocatello, ID (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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