Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Hailey, ID
March 29, 2024 4:26 AM MDT (10:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:22 AM Sunset 8:02 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:08 AM |
Area Discussion for - Pocatello, ID
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FXUS65 KPIH 290929 AFDPIH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 329 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday Night.
Most of the activity out there has quieted down overnight with just a few spotty showers showing up on radar this morning in the southeast and up near Island Park. We will continue with minimal activity through the morning hours as the low that has been sitting off the coast of the PNW slowly moves southward along the coast today. As we get into the afternoon, moisture begins to work its way back into the area with light snow showers returning to parts of the Central Mountains. The HRRR is advertising a few spotty showers returning to parts of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain, but even then coverage looks fairly limited and any impacts through the afternoon are expected to be minimal. Highs today will warm into the 40s again for many.
The low to our west will send another wave of more organized moisture our way late tonight into Saturday morning. The bullseye for this moisture looks to be in the mountains of the Southern Hills and Eastern Highlands, especially the Bear River Range where totals from tonight through Sunday night will push towards the 8 to 12 inch range around pass level with totals approaching 16 to 20 inches above pass level. Will likely need at least a Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Our mountains in the Southern Hills will begin to pick up some more impressive snow amounts Saturday PM through Sunday with totals approaching a foot on the peaks. A similar scenario will play out in the Big Hole Mountains, too, though the higher totals will be above 7500 feet. Snow totals will be much lighter in the Central Mountains through the weekend with about two to 4 inches at and above pass level. The best potential for snow in the valleys will be tonight into Saturday morning, though it looks to be an inch or less for most of the Snake Plain.
For Pocatello, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of more than an inch of snow while that increases to about a 40 to 50 percent chance north of Fort Hall where temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler Saturday morning. However, it's only a 10 percent chance for Idaho Falls to see more than two inches of snow by midday Saturday.
At this point, there is plenty of rain in the forecast for our valleys with QPF totaling between 0.15 to 0.40 inches with a 20 to 30 percent chance of QPF exceeding a half inch.
AMM
LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.
As a split H5 trough over the WRN CONUS continues to shift east on Sunday, a closed H5 low over the NRN Great Basin will keep a mix of rain and snow going into Sunday night with drier conditions returning for early next week. Given the location of this closed low working east along the Idaho/Nevada and Idaho/Utah border region, highest precipitation totals will exist across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley south and east into Utah and Wyoming with drier conditions expected in the CNTRL Mountains. Precipitation will be more moderate at times, especially in the mountains south and east of the Snake Plain associated with more organized bands of moisture.
As colder and drier air begins to build in out of the north later in the day Sunday courtesy of a H5 ridge moving into the PacNW and NRN Idaho, precipitation will depart SE Sunday night with dry conditions favored heading into Monday.
To kick off April, Monday through Wednesday will be dominated by a H5 ridge in place which will lead to temperatures seeing a warming trend as conditions remain dry with plenty of sunshine. Have blended the highs on Tuesday and Wednesday closer to the NBM 50th percentile as these values have consistently outperformed the deterministic values when we see a warmer pattern change following a seasonably cool stretch. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s/50s, increasing to the 50s/60s with even some low 70s possible in the Magic Valley on Wednesday as a H5 ridge axis shifts overhead.
With this H5 ridge axis now east of our region for Wednesday night, models remain in good agreement on bringing in a closed H5 low SE out of the Gulf of Alaska which will move onshore to the PacNW throughout the day on Wednesday. While both the ECMWF and GFS keep conditions dry throughout the day on Wednesday for our area, the NBM continues to carry light POPs at this time before increasing more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for Thursday. Temperatures will begin to see a cooling trend later in the week with increased cloud cover, a mix of rain/snow showers, and gusty winds back in the forecast to round out the work week. Unsettled and active weather then looks to continue through the weekend with a broad H5 troughing pattern firmly in place over the NRN Rockies supported by WPC multi-model ensemble cluster solutions. MacKay
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue for Friday with a mix of SCT/BKN to OVC mid/upper-level clouds overhead as winds remain less than 12 kts at all terminals. Isolated showers may be possible this afternoon and evening ahead of more scattered to widespread precipitation chances lifting north out of Utah tonight into Saturday supporting a mix of rain and snow showers as our next system moves into our area for the weekend. MacKay
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 329 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday Night.
Most of the activity out there has quieted down overnight with just a few spotty showers showing up on radar this morning in the southeast and up near Island Park. We will continue with minimal activity through the morning hours as the low that has been sitting off the coast of the PNW slowly moves southward along the coast today. As we get into the afternoon, moisture begins to work its way back into the area with light snow showers returning to parts of the Central Mountains. The HRRR is advertising a few spotty showers returning to parts of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain, but even then coverage looks fairly limited and any impacts through the afternoon are expected to be minimal. Highs today will warm into the 40s again for many.
The low to our west will send another wave of more organized moisture our way late tonight into Saturday morning. The bullseye for this moisture looks to be in the mountains of the Southern Hills and Eastern Highlands, especially the Bear River Range where totals from tonight through Sunday night will push towards the 8 to 12 inch range around pass level with totals approaching 16 to 20 inches above pass level. Will likely need at least a Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Our mountains in the Southern Hills will begin to pick up some more impressive snow amounts Saturday PM through Sunday with totals approaching a foot on the peaks. A similar scenario will play out in the Big Hole Mountains, too, though the higher totals will be above 7500 feet. Snow totals will be much lighter in the Central Mountains through the weekend with about two to 4 inches at and above pass level. The best potential for snow in the valleys will be tonight into Saturday morning, though it looks to be an inch or less for most of the Snake Plain.
For Pocatello, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of more than an inch of snow while that increases to about a 40 to 50 percent chance north of Fort Hall where temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler Saturday morning. However, it's only a 10 percent chance for Idaho Falls to see more than two inches of snow by midday Saturday.
At this point, there is plenty of rain in the forecast for our valleys with QPF totaling between 0.15 to 0.40 inches with a 20 to 30 percent chance of QPF exceeding a half inch.
AMM
LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.
As a split H5 trough over the WRN CONUS continues to shift east on Sunday, a closed H5 low over the NRN Great Basin will keep a mix of rain and snow going into Sunday night with drier conditions returning for early next week. Given the location of this closed low working east along the Idaho/Nevada and Idaho/Utah border region, highest precipitation totals will exist across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley south and east into Utah and Wyoming with drier conditions expected in the CNTRL Mountains. Precipitation will be more moderate at times, especially in the mountains south and east of the Snake Plain associated with more organized bands of moisture.
As colder and drier air begins to build in out of the north later in the day Sunday courtesy of a H5 ridge moving into the PacNW and NRN Idaho, precipitation will depart SE Sunday night with dry conditions favored heading into Monday.
To kick off April, Monday through Wednesday will be dominated by a H5 ridge in place which will lead to temperatures seeing a warming trend as conditions remain dry with plenty of sunshine. Have blended the highs on Tuesday and Wednesday closer to the NBM 50th percentile as these values have consistently outperformed the deterministic values when we see a warmer pattern change following a seasonably cool stretch. Highs on Monday will be in the 40s/50s, increasing to the 50s/60s with even some low 70s possible in the Magic Valley on Wednesday as a H5 ridge axis shifts overhead.
With this H5 ridge axis now east of our region for Wednesday night, models remain in good agreement on bringing in a closed H5 low SE out of the Gulf of Alaska which will move onshore to the PacNW throughout the day on Wednesday. While both the ECMWF and GFS keep conditions dry throughout the day on Wednesday for our area, the NBM continues to carry light POPs at this time before increasing more in line with the ECMWF/GFS for Thursday. Temperatures will begin to see a cooling trend later in the week with increased cloud cover, a mix of rain/snow showers, and gusty winds back in the forecast to round out the work week. Unsettled and active weather then looks to continue through the weekend with a broad H5 troughing pattern firmly in place over the NRN Rockies supported by WPC multi-model ensemble cluster solutions. MacKay
AVIATION
For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue for Friday with a mix of SCT/BKN to OVC mid/upper-level clouds overhead as winds remain less than 12 kts at all terminals. Isolated showers may be possible this afternoon and evening ahead of more scattered to widespread precipitation chances lifting north out of Utah tonight into Saturday supporting a mix of rain and snow showers as our next system moves into our area for the weekend. MacKay
PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KSUN FRIEDMAN MEMORIAL,ID | 2 sm | 11 min | NNW 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 28°F | 21°F | 74% | 29.89 |
Pocatello/Idaho Falls, ID,
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