Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West Rutland, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...Prevailing NW flow continues to bring scattered rain and upslope snow showers to northern NY and VT early this morning. Should see mid-level drying after 12Z brining most of this activity to a close except for some lingering flurries over the higher summits. KCXX dual-pol data suggests melting layer between 1500-2000ft elevation, and continue to see some accumulating snow on webcams across the higher passes of the Green Mtns. Mentioned in morning HWO that a few of the roads thru the higher passes may be snow covered until temperatures warm later this morning. Highest summits have seen 6-9" of snowfall, impressive for mid-October. An addition 1-2" is possible above 3000 ft in the central and northern Green Mtns before accumulating snow ends by 12Z or so.

Despite mid-level drying, inversion should help lock in shallow stratus layer across much of VT and nrn NY with the exception of downslope areas immediately east of the Adirondacks and into the upper CT Valley. Will continue to be somewhat brisk for mid- October with afternoon highs again in the 40s and NW winds 10-15 mph and occasional gusts to 25 mph thru mid-day.

NW winds will gradually subside with weakening pressure gradient tonight. Question is how persistent shallow stratus deck will be. Leaned toward the more pessimistic 0Z NAM with mostly cloudy skies until near daybreak. Should see better chances for clearing across the southern valleys based on NAM and HRRR mean cloud cover trends.

Our Frost/Freeze program remains active in the Champlain Valley and for wrn Rutland County. With lows 32-35F expected tonight, went with a frost advisory across the Champlain Valley for the 06-12Z period on Thursday. Better radiational cooling should bring best prospect of subfreezing temperatures to western Rutland county, where a freeze warning is in effect for the 06-12Z period on THursday. Much of central/ern VT and nrn NY will also be near or below freezing tonight. Colder spots in the Adirondacks should dip into the low-mid 20s.

Thursday will see the return of sunny conditions and lighter winds as a deep-layer ridge becomes anchored across the region.
Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs generally in the low-mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will nose into the region Thursday. There may be clouds north with a tongue of marginal moisture, but mostly clear skies are expected. Warm air will begin displacing the cold air mass overhead, and we should moderate into the 50s. A strong 1031-1033mb surface high will be centered near Pennsylvania, allowing for very efficient radiational cooling.
Another cool night in the mid 20s to mid 30s appears likely with patchy frost likely.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 331 AM EDT Wednesday...A more concentrated surge of warm air will reach the region Friday into the weekend. Surface high pressure will continue to strengthen as an impressively strong late season upper high builds across the Northeastern United States. Underneath, dry subsident air and clear skies will produce a series of very warm Fall days. 925 hPa temperatures will climb up to 11-13 C across the region. With efficient heating likely, conditions should warm into the mid to upper 60s by the end of the week, and a few spot 70s are not out of the question. Overnight lows will also climb well above normal with upper 30s to upper 40s at night early next week. A surface trough will slide east around Sunday, but may only increase clouds and wind briefly. The approach of another weather system will not be likely until mid to late next week.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 12Z Thursday...Widespread MVFR stratus will prevail through mid-morning with HIR TRRN OBSCD. Still looking at occasional light rain showers in prevailing moist northwest flow, with a mix of rain/snow between 1000-2000ft elevations. No significant impact expected to ground operations at KSLK from occasional snow showers as temperatures stay near to slightly above freezing at the surface. Lingering -RW/-SW should generally end by 12Z except for the higher summits. After 16Z, will see a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings at the TAF locations, with a trend toward BKN025-035 after sunset. Winds will remain from the NW throughout the TAF period, generally 10-12kt with some gusts to 20kt through 18Z before decreasing slightly this afternoon. Winds tonight generally NW 5-8kt, becoming light and variable most TAF locations after 06Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ001-002- 005-009.
Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ011.
NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ028-035.