Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bolton Landing, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. After a stretch of seasonably warm temperatures through tomorrow, temperatures trend below normal Sunday and Monday.
Impactful weather is unlikely through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Our string of back-to-back unseasonably warm days comes to an end today as our parent shortwave trough moves overhead with northerly flow advecting a drier and relatively cooler air mass into eastern NY and western New England. The incoming 500hPa cold pool looks to steepen 700 - 500hPa lapse rates to 6.5 - 7C/km mainly for areas near and south of I-90 today. Once we hit our convective temperature by late morning, CAMS are in good agreement showing isolated to widely scattered showers and even thunderstorms developing again near and south of I-90 as lingering dew points in the 60s and insolation generates 500 - 1000J/kg of SB CAPE. CAMs also indicate storms may favor development within the eastern Catskills, along the spine of the Berkshires, Taconics and in the Litchfield Hill. Severe thunderstorms are not expected as shear quickly weakens this afternoon and overall forcing is limited to a weak sfc pressure trough and the upper level cold pool. However, given wet-bulb zero heights are below 10kft, cannot rule out small hail should a strong storm develop. Showers/storms quickly diminish late this afternoon with the lose of daytime heating.

After a pleasant yet breezy Saturday, a broad and rather amplified trough gradually presses eastward Saturday night into Sunday with a sfc low near the Hudson Bay dragging a cold front eastward. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of it keep us mild Saturday night with a moisture plume directed out of the Gulf and height falls supporting a period of stratiform rain.
Guidance continues to show an amplifying shortwave at the base of the trough resulting in a secondary sfc low moving along the front Sunday morning. As the main cold front arrives Sunday morning, a sharp wind shift to the northwest will likely advect much cooler temperatures eastward. There is a low to medium chance that the secondary low allows sufficient moisture to linger behind the cold front resulting in rain mixing with snow in the southern Adirondacks and northern/eastern Catskills Sunday A.M before the bulk of the stratiform slowly presses east Sunday P.M. Low to medium probabilities for at least 0.20" of rain east of the Hudson into Sunday P.M suggest that the front may slow down and keep stratiform rain lingering most of the day. Therefore, we show likely to categorical POPs continuing into Sunday afternoon. This also means there is a low to medium chance for higher elevations of the Taconics and southern Greens to see rain mix with snow Sunday P.M before the bulk of the precip finally exits Sunday eve. The strong cold air advection and gusty northwest winds behind the front on Sunday will result in falling temperatures into the 30S and 40s with lingering rain/snow showers behind stratiform rain. While NBM probabilities continue to show a 25 to 50% chance for at least 0.5" of snow in elevation at and above 1500ft during the 24-hr period ending 2AM Monday, any wet snow accumulations will likely be limited to cooler and elevated surface preventing travel impacts. Should the front slow down further than current expectation, snow accumulations in higher terrain areas may trend upwards but impacts remain unlikely given time of year.

Below normal tempertures continue into Monday with medium to high confidence for overnight temperatures Sunday night to drop near/below freezing and high confidence to drop below freezing Monday night. Impactful weather looks unlikely the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
In the wake of scattered showers and thunderstorms, flying conditions have returned to being VFR for all TAF sites. A few lingering showers are still developing east of the TAF sites, but should be moving away and little impact on visibility is expected at the TAF sites through the rest of the overnight hours. Ceilings are generally broken to overcast around 15-25 kft with mid level clouds around and this will continue for the next few hours.

Towards daybreak, a weak frontal boundary will be dropping southward and a light northerly flow will develop. As a result, some lower stratus clouds will start to develop for the northern TAF sites for Friday morning. This may start as early as 08z, but will likely be closer to the 10z-12z time period. Once these clouds form, they will likely be MVFR cigs around 1000-2000 ft for KALB, KGFL and KPSF. IFR ceilings cannot be totally ruled out, but model soundings seem to suggest low-end MVFR for these sites, so will lean towards this for now. Meanwhile, KPOU will see some clouds later in the morning as the front gets there, but it should generally be VFR or high-end MVFR there.

These lower stratus clouds will be in place for the northern sites through the morning and will gradually dissipate in the afternoon as drier air works into the area from the north. Skies should clear for these sites towards evening with mostly clear skies for Friday night. Meanwhile, bkn cigs (mainly in the VFR range) will continue for KPOU through the afternoon and evening and even into the overnight on Friday night.

Northerly winds will be 5-10 kts for all sites through Friday.
These winds will become light to calm for Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
RA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Definite SHRA
RA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy
Slight Chance of SHRA
SHSN.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.