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FXUS61 KALY 042030 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 330 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure over New England will slowly move east to the Gulf of Maine tonight. An upper level disturbance will move across our region tonight, bringing scattered snow showers to mainly higher terrain areas. Behind this system it will be mainly dry and cooler on Tuesday, although plenty of cloud cover will likely linger. A weak disturbance may bring a few additional snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, with seasonable temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Cold front has cleared our region and is now moving through New England. Cold advection has commenced, with a W-NW flow regime.
There are still some instability showers moving across the central part of the area(Schoharie/Albany counties). With an upper level short wave passing through there will be mainly scattered upslope snow showers across higher terrain areas west/east of the Hudson Valley tonight. Some minor accumulations (Trace to 2") possible in some areas of the western Adirondacks and southern Greens. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy and cooler than recent nights with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

On Tuesday, weak ridging both at the surface and aloft should result in dry conditions. However, forecast soundings indicating low level moisture becoming trapped beneath a developing subsidence inversion so skies are expected to be mostly cloudy.
Some breaks in clouds are most likely across the mid Hudson Valley into Litchfield CT. Even in these areas clouds will tend to increase during the afternoon with an upper level trough approaching from the west. Highs will be near normal, ranging from upper 20s/lower 30s in the mountains to upper 30s/lower 40s in the valleys.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A broad upper level trough will start to settle in from the west Tue night. With limited large-scale forcing expected, this will mainly result in just mostly cloudy skies. A few light snow showers may occur in mountain areas, but overall any snowfall looks to be very minor with only a dusting in a few spots. Lows should be fairly uniform due to cloud cover, with mainly 20s across the region.

The upper level trough axis passes east across the area Wed afternoon, with some dry advection late in the day possibly leading to some breaks in the clouds around sunset. Dry conditions should prevail, with just a slight chance of a few light snow showers associated with the trough axis passage.
Highs look to be slightly below normal with 20s in the higher terrain and 30s in the valleys.

Wed night looks quiet and potentially cold if enough clearing occurs with ridging at the surface building in. Given expected subsidence and likely clearing, lows could drop into the single digits in parts of the Adirondacks and southern Greens where there is snow on the ground. Elsewhere it will still be cold with 10s to lower 20s.

There will be a persistent NW flow aloft across the region on Thu. A shearing upper level disturbance along with a warm front approaching from the Great Lakes may bring isolated to scattered snow showers, especially to areas west of the Hudson Valley.
After a cold start to the day, temperatures should warm to the upper 20s(mountains) to mid/upper 30s(valleys) during the afternoon with a low level W-SW flow and slight moderation aloft.

Ridging aloft looks to build in Thu night, while at the surface a warm front with limited moisture lifts north/east across our region. So after a few snow showers in the Adirondacks, dry conditions are expected once the warm front moves through. Lows will not be as cold as recent nights, ranging from upper 10s to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Changeable weather is expected during the long term period.
Initially on Friday, tranquil conditions and milder temperatures will occur due to ridging aloft and SW flow in the low levels.
Dry and mild conditions should last through Saturday, as the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest ridging holding on. Some valley locations could make a run at 50F degrees Sat afternoon.

The pattern then turns decidedly more active for the last half of the weekend. A deep upper level trough will be approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, with strong ridging along the east coast. This will result in a powerful/deepening cyclone tracking from the upper Great Lakes into SE Canada from the Sat night to Sun night time frame. With the storm track expected to be north/west of our region, a strong cold front passage would occur. Abundant moisture with an intensifying southerly low level jet could result in a period of heavy rain ahead of and along the cold front passage, followed by potentially strong/gusty westerly winds and mountain snow showers in wake of the cold front passage Sun night into Mon.
Will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z Tuesday....

Main weather concerns to operations for the ALY terminals during the 18z TAF cycle will be:

* Low VFR to MVFR ceilings continuing through tonight and possibly through the 18z TAF cycle

* VCSH for KALB and KPSF through this afternoon into this evening

* Potential for mist developing tonight, especially over KGFL and KPSF (depending on if winds diminish)

MVFR ceilings are occurring over KALB this afternoon with VFR conditions taking place at all of the other area terminals with cloud bases ranging between 2,500-4,500 feet AGL. Some vicinity lake effect rain showers is moving over parts of the area including the Capital District this afternoon as a shallow cold front continues to slide eastward. Forecast trends suggest that the local forecast area will remain in low VFR to MVFR ceilings through tonight and possibly through the 18z TAF cycle as multiple weak shortwave troughs move through the region. Low level moisture from recent rains/precipitation could give way to some mist developing later tonight as another inversion is expected to develop. This is especially the case for KGFL and KPSF. Winds, however, will be the deciding factor. If winds are strong enough, this will prevent the development of any mist from forming.

Where the aforementioned frontal boundary has passed, winds are out of the west-northwest at 5-10 kts. Where the front has not passed, winds are light and variable if not out of the south- southwest at 5- 10 kts. Tonight, winds will either be light and variable or out of the northwest between 5-10 kts. Winds will shift out of the north- northwest between 5-15 kts on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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