Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bolton Landing, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1. A brief warmup remains on tap for today, with temperatures falling back below normal early next week with a cold front passage.
Light snow is expected tonight into Sunday with the front and colder temperatures.

2. Continue to monitor potential for accumulating snow and/or a wintry mix for portions of the region Tuesday, Wednesday and later next week. Forecast confidence remains low at this time on exact precipitation amounts.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Early morning satellite and surface analysis showed a cold front draped across the Great Lakes and mid-Mississippi River Valley.
Ahead of this front, high pressure centered just off the East Coast was providing dry conditions and southerly flow across eastern NY and western New England.

Going through today, this cold front will continue to work its way east into the region, arriving across the Mohawk Valley and western ADKs by late morning into early afternoon. Rain and snow showers are expected to accompany the front, with coverage most favored mainly across the aforementioned zones nearer to the best lift (which will be focused mainly north of the international border).
Regardless, some CAMs show low chances (20-50%) of some rain/snow showers making it south to the Interstate 90 corridor and Capital District. Any precipitation or snow amounts will be light. Outside of this, most will enjoy partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures moderating well into the 30s (terrain)
and 40s to near 50 (valleys).

As the cold front settles just south of the region, a strong push of CVA from the northwest will promote development of weak surface low along the front across the Ohio River Valley. This low will move northeast along the front, ushering in moisture and lift across the region. With CAA behind the front and strengthening northwest flow, temperatures will be cold enough for precipitation to be primarily snow (some mix may be seen across portions of the Mid Hudson Valley) for most. Snow amounts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with the latest NBM favoring a widespread 1-3". Some CAMs, most notably the HRRR and RRFS, show higher amounts with more QPF initialized, though they look to be outliers at this time. The higher end of snow amounts are favored along and south of the Interstate 88/90 corridors into the Berkshires per latest NBM probabilities (50-70% of amounts > 1" here), though some localized higher amounts will be possible across the higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern ADKs. Still, amounts remain favored to be sub-advisory, although some locally slick travel is expected on Sunday morning, especially for high terrain areas and untreated surfaces.

Once precipitation exits the area late Sunday afternoon and evening, strong high pressure will build into the region and will keep us dry through early next week. It will be rather cold though with 925-850 hPa temperatures falling as low as -15 to -20 C. This will translate to lows Sunday and Monday night into the single digits to well below zero (high terrain), and highs Monday ranging from the teens (terrain) to mid 20s (valleys).

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As has been advertised in previous AFDs, we continue to monitor a change to a more active weather regime beginning mid next week. Our first system will be arrive in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe, as a warm front and jet streak aloft increase lift and moisture across the region. Initially, all snow looks to be favored, with a transition to a wintry mix and rain, especially across our southern zones. Latest NBM continues to advertise high chances (70- 100%) of precipitation for the area as model-to-model consistency gets better on storm placement. However, there remains inconsistency on snow amounts due to differences on the exact warm front placement, so confidence on this front remains low. However, as mentioned in the previous AFD, enough wintry precip for slippery travel is possible, especially for northern areas.

Another system will follow on the heels of the Tuesday/Wednesday system for later in the week, though this one may feature more rain than snow for the region as thermal profiles look to be near to above freezing. Regardless, given this is far out, additional changes to this period are expected. Confidence is high for a trend more to above normal temperatures, as is indicated in the CPC 6-10 day temperature outlook.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12z/Sun...Latest satellite imagery shows our shortwave tracking into the North Country early this morning with mid- level clouds spreading eastward and expected to reach the terminals by 14 - 16 UTC. While radar mosaic shows an area of showers ahead of the shortwave pushing eastward as well, overall weak forcing and lackluster moisture should keep showers weak and brief. We therefore limited shower mention and potential for MVFR vis to GFL which will be closer to the forcing but even here only included a PROB30 group from 15 - 18 UTC. Then, we should have a brief break for dry weather albeit low and mid-level clouds lingering overhead before its associated cold front marches eastward late this afternoon.
After this boundary exits into New England by 00 UTC/01, still expecting a quick trend back to VFR at all terminals. Additional low and mid-clouds return towards the of the TAF period as a wave of low pressure rides along our boundary, potentially resulting in a more widespread area of snow early Sunday morning. Only show IFR vis from snow at GFL where there is higher confidence for snow arriving before 12 UTC. PSF/ALB/POU should hold off until near or shortly after 12 UTC.

Breezy southeasterly winds at GFL and ALB develop this morning with lingering LLWS at GFL through 14 UTC. Then, sustained south to southeasterly winds reach 10-12kts with gusts up to 20-25kts through the afternoon. Winds then shift to the west- southwest by 20-22 UTC at all terminals in the wake of our cold front with sustained winds becoming breezy for a short period reaching 8-12kts and gusts up to 15kts then weakening overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SN.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of RA
SN.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of RA
SN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.