Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warrensburg, NY

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Beautiful spring day continues across eastern NY and western New England today with a ~1028hPa high centered in the mid-Atlantic and upper level centered over western NY sliding east. Outside of some innocuous cirrus clouds spilling over top the incoming ridge, plenty of sunshine continues. Given the very dry mass sampled by the 12 UTC ALY sounding today (PWATs ~0.25"), dew points have trended lower into the 30s and we incorporated the NBM 5th percentile guidance to better reflect current conditions. The very dry air mass and efficient boundary layer mixing up to 800hPa seen on forecast soundings will support warm spring temperatures today and we leaned on the warmer side of the guidance envelop as probabilistic guidance shows 20 - 40% chance for high temperatures to exceed 74 degrees from the Capital Region southward into the mid-Hudson Valley.

Mainly clear skies tonight as some cirrus clouds continue to spill overhead. Winds remain mainly light overnight but could turn a bit stronger towards 09 - 12 UTC as the pressure gradient ahead of the incoming boundary tightens. Given warmer daytime temperatures and a slight breeze developing later tonight, overnight lows will not be quite as cool as this morning.
Expecting most to only fall into the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Key Messages:

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms (15-29% chance)
late Tuesday into Tuesday evening for areas west and north of the Capital Region.

Discussion:

Our region will be within a mild southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front for Tuesday. Temps look to reach the middle to upper 70s for valley areas by Tuesday afternoon.
Dewpoints will be increasing through the day as well thanks to the moist southerly flow, with values reaching into the 50s by late in the day. After a mostly clear start to the day, some clouds will be increasing by the afternoon hours.

The latest model guidance suggests the approaching cold front will be west of the region and will be moving into western New York towards the evening hours. The best forcing will probably remain west of the area during the peak diurnal heating and the boundary looks to cross the area for Tuesday night. For late in the day and into the evening, instability will be building across western and central NY. There will be some limited instability in our area from the Hudson Valley on westward, but SBCAPE values will likely be 500 J/kg or less. Abundant 0-6 km deep layer shear of around 40 kts will be in place. CAMs suggest a broken QLCS line will develop well west of the area and could track towards the area, although the limited instability should have activity weaken as it gets closer to the area. Still, western areas could see a strong to severe storm before activity weakens and damaging winds would be the main threat, although the greatest risk is west of the region. Highest POPs across our area will be on Tuesday night, especially for northern and western areas. Once the front crosses by later in the overnight, temps will start to tumble as cooler and drier air works into the area. As a result, temps will be down into the 30s across the Adirondacks by daybreak Wednesday, although they will still be in the mid to upper 50s across southeastern areas, where the front will cross last.

Behind the front, drier and cooler weather is expected for Wednesday into Wednesday night. Northwest winds will be a little breezy on Wednesday with decreasing clouds and temps reaching into the 60s for most areas. Cool and dry weather is expected on Wednesday night with a partly cloudy sky and temps falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Key Message:

- Showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday night and again Friday afternoon.

Discussion: Long term period begins at 00z Friday with dry conditions for most areas but a surface low associated with an upper shortwave will track through the Great Lakes region overnight. So, the system's warm front will lift north through our region overnight, bringing chances for showers and a few thunderstorms with BUFKIT forecast soundings showing some pockets of elevated instability. With warm advection and cloudy skies, lows will be fairly mild, mainly in the 40s to 50s. On Friday, the surface low tracks north of the region, putting us squarely in the warm sector.
We will see a lull in precip for at least Friday morning, with temperatures warming well into the 70s for many areas with some low 80s possible for valley areas south of I-90. Then, during the afternoon or evening, the trailing cold front will tracks through our region bringing additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Coverage and strength of any thunderstorms will depend on the timing of the frontal passage and the amount of instability available, which will hopefully come into better focus over the coming days. Showers and thunderstorms will taper off after sunset, with temperatures dropping into the 40s to 50s again for overnight lows.

Saturday through Sunday night...The aforementioned cold front stalls to the south and east of our region Saturday, and another upper trough tracks eastwards. Ahead of the upper trough, surface cyclogenesis occurs along the baroclinic zone. As the surface low tracks northeastwards, it will likely bring showers to portions of the region Saturday into Saturday night. At this time, the highest likelihood of rain/showers seems to be for eastern areas, but this till ultimately depend on where the front stalls and the track of the surface low along that boundary. With the cooler airmass and clouds/showers around, Saturday will be much cooler with highs ranging from 50s in the high terrain to 60s in the valleys. Lows Saturday night will be in the 30s to 40s. We finally dry out for the second half of the weekend, although the upper trough and cold pool aloft remain nearby, so Sunday will feature near to slightly below normal temperatures with highs again mainly in the 50s to 60s. Lows Sunday night will again be in the 30s to 40s.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18z/Tue...VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. A few thin mid and high clouds are expected from time to time before increasing later tonight and tomorrow morning.
Winds will be light and variable at KALB, KGFL and KPOU through tonight, while KPSF will see northwest wind of 10-20kt this afternoon before diminishing to light and variable after sunset.
Winds shift to southerly all TAF sites around daybreak and increase to 10 to 20 kt by late morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Breezy
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.

FIRE WEATHER

After a cold front pushes through the region tomorrow into tomorrow night resulting in showers and areas of thunderstorms, high pressure and a very dry air mass moves overhead for Wednesday. This will result in low relative humidity values ranging 20 to 30 percent with gusty west to northwest ranging 25 to 30mph. Such conditions can elevate the risk for fire spread.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.