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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 1048 Am Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
This afternoon..South winds less than 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers during the day, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 050131 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 931 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
After record warmth today, temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday, but still well above normal for this time of the year. Dry weather is expected to continue at least through Friday morning, before a strong cold front will bring a round of rainfall and cooler weather to the area Friday night through Saturday night. Cool and showery weather is expected to continue into next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...

Well with the last update, we were a bit too aggressive with the warm temperatures continuing much past sunset. As expected though, temps were quick to fall with most in the 60s and low 70s. The hourly temps and dewpts were updated once again to better match observations. With the help from some shorter range guidance, these changes should put the forecast on a better track based on the trend this evening. Winds were also touched up based on the latest obs. A narrow band of high clouds is entering the region from the west, but this will have little impact on the current conditions.

620 PM Update...

A few locations are hanging onto the the 80s at this hour.
Temperatures were running warmer than forecasted, so adjustments were made to better match observations and to slow the cooling down some. With mostly to partly clear skies expected, temps will be quick to fall after sunset. While patchy fog looks certain in the Catskills, conditions may become more favorable for fog developing in a few other valley locations than previously forecasted. As mentioned in the previous discussion, some uncertainty remains due to stronger winds expected than seen in previous nights.

130 PM Update...

With strong ridging remaining in place today with warm southerly flow and sunny skies will result in record high temperatures today for most of our climate sites. 500 mb heights are up near 590 dm and 850 mb temperatures over 15C which is impressive for this time of year. The upper level ridge axis moves off to the east tonight with falling heights as well as strengthening SW flow. Clouds increase overnight and with higher winds above the boundary layer, it will be tougher to get as much widespread fog tonight though the deeper river valleys will likely get fog to form again.

Tomorrow will still be warm but with slightly cooler 850 mb temperatures and more cloud cover, highs will be around 5 degrees cooler than today. There is a chance at some hill top drizzle and rain showers Thursday night as deeper moisture advects into the region.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
310 PM Update:

A strong and deep upper level trough will swing into the Great Lakes region Friday and will be the main weather driver through the period. A shortwave trough will develop along the eastern edge of the longwave trough, moving into the region Friday. SSE flow will bring moisture into the region from the Atlantic, and combined with the lift from the shortwave, scattered showers will develop across the area Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain above normal, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The longwave trough will dig into the Ohio Valley Friday night, which will increase the coverage of rainfall Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Lows will be in the mid 50s to near 60 across the area.

Saturday, the longwave trough will rotate into the region and tilt negatively. A cold front is expected to push through from west to east beginning early Saturday afternoon. Guidance is still unsure on the the degree of the negative tilt and how far south the center of the trough makes it. All guidance keeps the rain showers around through the period but how far south they reach will depend on how the trough develops. Temperatures will reach the lower to mid 60s before falling through the afternoon as cold air pushes in from the west. Overnight lows will be much colder than Friday night, falling into the lower to mid 40s across the area.

There will also be a threat for locally heavy rainfall, especially Friday night through Saturday. That being said, after a dry week and rainfall occurring during a more prolonged timeframe, rather than all at once, the overall flooding threat should be low and mainly across urban and poor drainage areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
310 PM Update:

The overall forecast for the long term remains on track with a cool and showery pattern taking place. Sunday is starting to look a bit more breezier with a tight gradient developing behind the departing cold front and also the remnants of Tropical Storm Philippe moving into the Canadian Maritimes.

Previous Discussion:

After the longwave trough digs into the region, it is expected to lift north and become mostly stationary through the period.
This will keep cold air and a mostly westerly flow over the region through the period as we sit south of the trough. The cold air flowing over the warm Great Lakes will generate lake effect showers through the period, with showers generated from Lake Erie reaching the Finger Lakes and showers from Lake Ontario streaming across the Mohawk Valley and Oneida county.
Temperatures will be well below normal, with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s every day. Winds will be blowing thanks to somewhat tight isobars over the area. Sustained winds of 10-15kts gusting 15-25kts are expected.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the evening hours and again on Thursday. Some valley fog develops again tonight mainly affecting ELM. Brought ELM down to below alternate minimums in fog, mainly from 08-14z Thursday morning. With strengthening winds and some scattered high clouds moving in, less widespread fog is expected so all other terminals were kept VFR through the next 24 hours.

Light south/southeast or variable winds are expected tonight; under 8 kts. Southerly winds increase slightly on Thursday, reaching 8-18 kts at most terminals in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon and evening...Mainly VFR expected.

Thursday night...Lowering CIGs, look to bring MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions to BGM, ELM and AVP before daybreak.

Friday through Saturday...Restrictions possible as a system brings chances for rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday into Monday...Chance of restrictions from lake effect rain showers across CNY terminals.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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