Friday, September17, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:09PM Friday September 17, 2021 6:08 PM EDT (22:08 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 129 Pm Edt Fri Sep 17 2021
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Clear. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:202109172115;;773401 FZUS51 KBUF 171729 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 129 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-172115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 171919 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 319 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mainly dry conditions persist today, although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out, especially for the Poconos and Catskills. A weak cold front will move through the area late tonight into Saturday, accompanied by spotty showers and isolated thunder. A several day period of warm and dry weather is expected for the first half of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. 945 am Update . The marine layer continues to cover NE PA and the Southern Tier/Catskills. Low clouds are expected to gradually lift through the morning but cloudy skies are expected across this region. There is a slight chance of some pop up rain showers across the Poconos/Catskills mostly due to upslope flow. There is a large amount of warm air aloft that should cap any convection that may try to develop. Warmest temps across the CWA today will be in the Mohawk Valley/northern Finger Lakes as downslope flow will keep a majority of the thick clouds at bay and allow for some good diurnal heating.

700 AM Update . No significant changes to the forecast today. Low stratus with some patchy river valley fog remains over the region as the marine layer is slowly advecting towards the region. Low clouds will likely hang around through much of the early morning before finally starting to lift in the afternoon. Previous discussion follows:

Peripheral effects from offshore Atlantic low pressure today, and a trailing cold front Saturday, results in chances for spotty showers and isolated thunder during otherwise dry near term weather.

High pressure currently sits over New England, with a surface ridge extending across northern New York. Meanwhile, low pressure offshore of the Carolina coast, is in the process of wobbling northward. Between these two features, easterly low level flow has brought in marine layer moisture in the form of a shallow stratus deck over Northeast PA and the Southern Tier- Catskills NY. Some of it is pressing towards the Finger Lakes- Cortland-Norwich areas, but downsloping will allow the NY Thruway corridor to still have at least partial sunshine today. That is also where lower 80s are anticipated for highs today, whereas the higher proportion of clouds will hold other areas mainly in the 70s. The marine moisture will also allow for a few spotty showers to be possible in those cloudier areas too, but most of the time it will be dry.

A strong wave will translate across northern Ontario and Quebec tonight into Saturday. A cold front trailing from that wave, will dip into our region. Models continue to trend slightly faster with its pace; already reaching our northwestern zones towards dawn Saturday and slipping through the area by mid afternoon or so. The front will be fairly weak and with limited moisture; so while a few showers and isolated thunder could occur, they will not amount to much. After lows of upper 50s-mid 60s tonight, highs will be mainly 70s-near 80 on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/.

High pressure and ridging aloft will ensure quiet and sunny weather Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be a little more seasonal Sunday, peaking in the low to mid 70s before dropping back into the upper 40s and lower 50s once again. Some patchy valley fog is expected. Monday will be a few degrees warmer with the ridge directly overhead. Expect highs in the mid and upper 70s, even near 80F around the Thruway corridor and typically warmer urban valleys. Temperatures stay more mild overnight, falling back only into the 50s and lower 60s amid increasing clouds and warm air advection that will touch off some chances for showers into the early hours of Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/.

Much of the area should be dry Tuesday with the ridge axis beginning to shift offshore and a trough digging into the upper Midwest. This will touch off warm, moist southwesterly flow, with a small chance for some showers mainly across our far western zones. Tuesday will be another warm day. Continued to go above guidance, blending in the NBM 90th percentile with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

Chances for showers will continue to spread eastward into the area Tuesday night, with unsettled weather through the middle of the week as the aforementioned trough swings into the eastern US and drags a strong cold front through. Significant timing differences remain, with frontal passage occurring as much as 12hours earlier in the GFS runs compared to other deterministic models and ensembles. Chances continue to be spread out generally from late Tuesday night through Thursday, but the best window looks to be from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Behind this, 850mb temperatures turn quite chilly, falling into the 0C to 2C range. This could be enough to keep in lake clouds and some chances for lake effect showers Friday - depending on the orientation of the winds. Models continue to diverge here, with the GFS bringing in a brief window of ridging Thursday evening through Friday while the Euro, for example, shows the upper trough acquiring a negative tilt and keeping in persistent northwest flow longer.

Regardless, temperatures will be running quite chilly compared to earlier in the week. Expect temperatures to quickly drop back into the upper 40s and lower 50s Wednesday night, and only peak in the low to mid 60s Thursday afternoon. Temperatures plummet to the mid and upper 40s Thursday night, possibly even colder in the higher elevations of the Catskills and towards the Tug Hill. Highs will once again be in the 60s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. The marine layer continues to impact most of the CWA with a stratus deck hovering just above VFR conditions at all terminals except for BGM which is holding onto MVFR. BGM should join the rest of the area and hit VFR ceilings in the next hour or so. The marine layer will stay with us into the overnight hours, bringing another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings and fog across the area. BGM and ELM have the best chance at dropping to LIFR for a few hours in the morning as winds calm. There is a slight chance for rain showers to move through the area overnight but only mentioned VCSH at SYR and RME as confidence in precipitation coverage is not high.

Outlook .

Late Friday night through Saturday . Fuel alternate to IFR ceilings for most terminals early Saturday morning, then small chances of scattered showers/isolated thunder with associated brief restrictions.

Saturday night through Tuesday . VFR, except late night-early morning valley fog probable beginning Sunday night for at least KELM; possibly others.

Wednesday . Chance for rain showers and associated restrictions.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MDP NEAR TERM . JTC/MDP/RLD SHORT TERM . HLC LONG TERM . HLC AVIATION . JTC/MDP/RLD


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi51 min S 8.9 G 15 81°F 1019.4 hPa66°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi51 min 76°F 69°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi16 minSE 610.00 miOvercast77°F68°F74%1021.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E6CalmE5E3E6SE6CalmE6E5E5E4SE5SE4E6SE9SE10SE10SE9SE9E8SE9SE7SE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmN3N4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S6E7S6S8SE6SE4E6
2 days agoE6E8SE4E5E6E7E6NE3E4S10
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NE3NE5CalmNW5SW4W5NW14W12W6W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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