Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 2:46 AM EDT (06:46 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 8:33AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 152 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
This afternoon..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ045 Expires:202107262115;;492522 FZUS51 KBUF 261752 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 152 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-262115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 270508 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 108 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross Lake Ontario this afternoon and push thunderstorms across NY and PA through the early evening hours. A few storms may include gusty winds. Wednesday will be quieter, with a chance for an isolated shower. Another round of storms will move through the region on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 700 PM Update . Thermal cap managed to break in just a couple spots, for an isolated thundershower in southern Steuben County around 5 PM; now carrying into southwest Bradford County. Another one just south of Rochester will attempt to get into Seneca County. However, each of these cells will soon fall apart due to entrainment of dry air in much of the column as well as loss of diurnal heating.

Forecast otherwise on track; though based on latest operational and convective-allowing models, the onset of shower/storm chances Tuesday was delayed by 1-2 hours. It does appear things may be a bit active Tuesday afternoon-evening, particularly the 3-11 PM timeframe.

Previous discussion . Quiet and mostly clear conditions continue overnight. As winds turn light and variable once more, some patchy fog may develop, but more limited lower level moisture as indicated by model soundings should help to keep fog isolated to our more sheltered valleys. Expect lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

After a dry start, an approaching shortwave will start to drag a cold front through into Tuesday afternoon, starting off our next round of showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and evening hours. CAPE values will reach 700 to 1500 j/kg with steep low level lapse rates. Mostly unidirectional bulk shear peaks at around around 30 to 45 knots along and north of the NY/PA border. This would suggest perhaps some scattered convection early on eventually organizing into some linear segments as the front moves through. Stronger, potentially damaging wind gusts would not be out of the question, and given how sensitive we are to any heavier downpours at this time, localized flooding issues would be possible in any thunderstorms. Unsurprisingly, then, we have been upgraded to a Marginal severe threat for Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms linger into Tuesday night, largely tapering off by the early morning hours.

Expect a warm, humid day with dewpoints in the 60s and highs in the 80s. Behind the cold front Tuesday night, temperatures fall back into the mid 50s to mid 60s with a comparatively cooler airmass.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. 325 PM Update . No significant changes to the short term period, only minor adjustments to PoPs, Sky cover and temperatures with this update. Perhaps an isolated shower or t'storm on Wednesday, otherwise becoming mostly sunny with highs in the mid-70s to lower 80s.

Surface high pressure looks to bring mainly dry conditions to the area on Wednesday. However, with the frontal boundary just south and east of the area, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out for Northeast PA to the Southern Tier of NY, mainly in the morning. Gradual clearing is expected, leading to mostly sunny conditions by the afternoon. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Went a bit below blended model guidance for dewpoints, as blended guidance had values that seemed a bit too high considering the drier northwest flow.

Mainly dry conditions are expected Wednesday night, although a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning ahead of the next shortwave. Otherwise, after a mostly clear start to the night, clouds will gradually increase. Lows are expected to be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The next shortwave will move through the area on Thursday, leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Highs on Thursday are expected to be in the mid-70s to lower 80s once again. It will be a bit more humid with sfc dew points reaching the mid to perhaps upper 60s, and PWATs rising between 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Depending on the exact timing of the front a few storms may be stronger, producing heavy rain and gusty winds. Model guidance is showing between 30-45 kts of deep layer shear, but it is questionable just how much instability will be around.

Some additional showers will be possible Thursday night, but a general drying trend from west to east is expected as the shortwave departs and a drier northwest flow advects in. Some guidance, such as the 12z GFS, has much cooler air advecting in, with 850mb temperatures reaching +5C . meanwhile the CMC is around +7C and the ECMWF is around +10C. With the steep low level lapse rates and cooler air advecting over Lake Ontario, some isolated to scattered lake effect rain showers may develop later at night, and into Friday morning. Lake surface temperatures are around 72-77 degrees, or around +18 to +20C.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. With a persistent upper level trough in place, below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the long term period, especially on Friday when the trough will be most amplified. Highs Friday look to be in the mid 60s to lower 70s, except 75-80 in the Wyoming Valley, before slowly moderating through the weekend (70s Saturday; mid 70s to lower 80s Sunday).

Aside from an isolated lake enhanced shower or two in the morning (mainly Central NY), Friday will likely be mainly dry, with a mix of sun and clouds by afternoon. Considering the cool temperatures and low humidity, Friday will be quite comfortable for late July standards. It will also be a bit breezy, with northwest winds 10-20 mph expected (and a few higher gusts). Surface ridging moves in for a crisp, cool and mostly clear night Friday night. Cannot rule out some valley fog if we are able to fully decouple from the lingering northwest winds. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid-40s to lower 50s..about 10 degrees below average.

Upper level flow becomes a bit more zonal on Saturday, but with high pressure in control, dry conditions are expected to continue with mostly sunny skies much of the day. By Sunday, a low pressure system in Canada looks to bring a cold front through our region. This will lead to a chance for some scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. However, as is usually the case, timing is uncertain being this far out. Therefore, PoPs remain at just low-end chance, close to the NBM guidance. Isolated showers may linger right into Monday, with a broad upper level trough remaining in place over the region. Temperatures look to return to below average levels early next week, after near average readings on Sunday.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/.

Patchy river valley fog will form across NY and PA this morning, with IFR fog expected at KELM between 9z and 12z.

VFR conditions are forecast through early afternoon before a line of thunderstorms moves across our NY terminals between 18z and 23z. Some of these storms will contain gusty winds. MVFR restrictions will be likely in storms.

After the storms move through, clouds will lower to between 1500 and 3000 feet across our NY terminals Tuesday night, with IFR ceilings likely at KBGM. Minor visibility restrictions are expected.

Outlook .

Wednesday through Wednesday night . Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday . Scattered showers/thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible, especially the afternoons.

Friday night through Saturday . Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . DJP NEAR TERM . HLC/MDP SHORT TERM . BJG/MJM LONG TERM . BJG/MJM AVIATION . DJP


Weather Reporting Stations
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On 03/09/2021 the NDBC primary processing servers were shut off due to a facilities issue. Station pages on the NDBC website are not updating and there is no ETR at this time. We will update this banner as we learn more.
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi53 min S 5.1 G 6 70°F 1013.7 hPa64°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi53 min 66°F 68°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair62°F58°F86%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5W6W8W9
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1 day agoE6NE3E6S3SW6
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2 days agoE3SE3E4CalmSE3E5E3E5E7SE9SE7SE6S7SE7S7S7E5E7SE5E5E5E7CalmE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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