Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 4:28PM Friday December 13, 2019 1:19 AM EST (06:19 UTC) Moonrise 5:56PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 331 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm est this evening through Friday afternoon...
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy this evening, then clearing. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Sunday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Rain and snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. A chance of snow Monday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow during the day, then snow showers likely Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LOZ045 Expires:201912130400;;253053 FZUS51 KBUF 122038 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 331 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-130400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 130557 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1257 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure currently over the region will move offshore overnight. This high pressure system will give way a low pressure system tracking up the east coast this weekend. This will bring our region another round of rain, changing to some snow by Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 630 pm update . High pressure an dry weather continues to dominate this evening. No significant changes made to the forecast.

Previous Discussion . High pressure will move east of the region tonight. Behind the high pressure system, winds will become more southerly and southeasterly. As a result, a marine cloud layer should work inland during the day Friday after a clear night tonight. Enough moisture should be present for some light rain to develop during the afternoon hours as well. Just enough cold air may be stuck in some valleys for some very brief and patchy freezing rain or drizzle in the Poconos and Southern Catskills. However, coverage looks very spotty and not high enough for HWO mention or a winter weather advisory.

With the flow becoming more southerly, low temperatures should only fall into the low and mid 20's tonight. On Friday, highs will struggle to hit 40 due to the clouds and stay steady Friday night.

A low pressure system is expected to move up the east coast. The marine flow and lift along a warm front with the low pressure system will result in the development of a period of rain Friday night and Saturday. Additional rainfall still looks to be around an inch. Ensemble guidance is not indicating any flooding at this time, though a few river points may get close to minor stages. Poor drainage issues may be more of a concern. Some uncertainty on rainfall totals is present with a potential dry slot during the day Saturday which may cut back slightly on rainfall totals. Temperatures should warm well into the 40's along and east of the low track. Even though we are slightly warmer than the model guidance a decent temperature spike may occur which guidance typically under does.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Cold air advection begins to change the rain to snow Saturday night, especially at higher elevations (mix of rain and snow at the lower elevations). There could be some minor snow accumulations, especially in Central New York. By the second half of the night/early Sunday, the precipitation transitions to more lake enhanced, although becoming more showery in nature rather than widespread precipitation. Lows Saturday night will likely be in the lower to mid 30s.

Models continue to generally agree that the low pressure system will rapidly deepen as it moves north of the area on Sunday. Behind the system, winds will become gusty from the west due to a sharp pressure gradient, with gusts mainly in the 25-35 mph range. This will set the stage for additional lake enhanced rain and snow showers (mostly snow in the higher elevations). Lake effect snow showers likely continue into Sunday evening, mainly north of the NY Thruway, before tapering off early Monday morning. Highs on Sunday will likely be in the lower to upper 30s, with lows Sunday night likely in the teens to mid 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. The long term forecast remains mostly on track. Only change made was to increase POPs late Monday night/early Tuesday morning into the daytime hours Tuesday from chance to likely as it is appearing more likely of seeing precipitation during this time. Still looks like best chance for a wintry mix is across portions of NEPA, the Southern Tier, and the Southern Catskills, but this is highly dependent on the ultimate track of the low pressure system.

Previous Discussion:

With our active pattern continuing unabated, a brief break much of Monday, is likely to give away to another system moving southwest to northeast through the general area late Monday into Tuesday. All models have the system yet differ in whether tracking the primary low just south of the area as per the ECMWF, or further northwest like the GFS-Canadian models. However, even the relatively cooler ECMWF manages to get above freezing at 850mb for a sizable chunk of the area.

A snow to wintry mix scenario is anticipated for Monday night into Tuesday. There could be some snow and/or ice accumulations with this, but things could easily change considering it is quite a ways out; we will better figure out the details in coming days. It could quickly transition to rain with a northwest track, or remain mostly snow-freezing rain mix with southeastern one. However it works out, a piece of Arctic air is projected to dip behind the system into our area as we head into Midweek. As usual, this scenario could produce lake effect snow.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. VFR under cirrus clouds expected overnight all terminals. A marine layer associated with southerly flow will eventually reach KAVP and KBGM by 13-16z with MVFR ceilings at KBGM and KAVP. As a major storm system takes shape Today into tonight all terminals will see ceilings lower to MVFR by 20z at KRME, 21z at KELM, and 23z at KSYR. Downsloping will potentially prevent KITH from reaching MVFR until 02z and delay MVFR at KSYR until at least 23z. Confidence is low at the arrival times of MVFR ceilings especially KITH/KSYR/KRME and KELM. IFR with light rain and mist arrives at KAVP/KBGM/KELM between 00z and 06z Saturday. Again confidence is low on exact arrival times but high on IFR conditions at these sites before 06z Saturday. KITH/KRME/KSYR will eventually get to IFR but timing is uncertain if it arrives before 06z Saturday. All guidance suggests it waits until after 06z Saturday so left out of terminals. Most terminals also have a period of low-level wind shear which is borderline but kept it in from previous Terminals.

Winds will be southeast 5-10 knots through the period. Winds will be a bit higher around 10-15 knots at KITH given the flow up Cayuga Lake.

Outlook .

Friday night and Saturday . MVFR/IFR restrictions expected in periods of rain.

Saturday evening through Sunday . Rain changing to light snow with MVFR/IFR restrictions. NW wind gusts 20-30 knots.

Sunday night and Monday . VFR with winds decreasing.

Monday night and Tuesday: MVFR/IFR restrictions with a wintry mix.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . MWG NEAR TERM . BJT/MWG SHORT TERM . BJG LONG TERM . BJG/MDP AVIATION . DJN


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi49 min S 12 G 21 1026.7 hPa
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi55 min 27°F 1027.6 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi4.4 hrsESE 910.00 miFair25°F15°F66%1034 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14W11W8W7W6W8W6W4NW4CalmCalmW5W5NW4CalmCalmSE4SE5SE4E4E6E9E10E9
1 day agoNW16NW13NW8NW9NW11NW7NW6NW3CalmCalmSE3E4E3SE4SE5SW9SW9W12W9W12
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2 days agoSE6CalmS65E6E6CalmCalmE33W10W4W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.