Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Constableville, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 5:02PM Friday January 22, 2021 9:26 PM EST (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:14PMMoonset 1:56AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 925 Am Est Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers late this morning, then a chance of snow showers this afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
LOZ045 Expires:202101222215;;313218 FZUS51 KBUF 221425 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 925 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ045-222215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Constableville, NY
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location: 43.54, -75.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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FXUS61 KBGM 230005 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 705 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Arctic air will pour across the area overnight into Saturday, with winds from the northwest. This will cause lake effect snow showers, especially for Central New York yet stretching into Northeast Pennsylvania at times. High pressure then builds into the region Sunday. Our next chance of snow will come early next week with a low tracking south of the region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. 530 PM Update . Short-notice expansion of Advisory back into northern Oneida was done in coordination with WFO Buffalo (Oswego County), due to mesoscale northward shift of the primary lake effect band for the next few hours.

The HRRR model is about the only one that had a handle of this shift. This occurred ahead of incoming low-level convergence/secondary front that is about to drop south across the area later this evening. As such, in addition to adding some snow especially in northwestern Oneida with Advisory expansion; prior expectations of snow accumulations further south in the existing advisory were also dropped slightly, since we are missing out on the first few hours of forecast snow.

Previous discussion . West and northwest winds will continue to send a chilly airmass into our region through Saturday. Instability and moisture are sufficient enough this afternoon for the continuation of snow showers and squalls across the region into the evening. While these will be brief up to a quick inch of snow could fall.

With the loss of daytime heating, these snow showers should become more isolated. However, a more concentrated band of lake effect snow is expected to form southeast of Lake Ontario just south of the NY Thruway. This band will then shift slowly south tonight and focus in the Finger lakes Saturday morning. Modeled soundings show sufficient mid-level dry air by Saturday to limit intensity and coverage of snow with this band. Modeling is still quite variant on the exact location of the band with the NAM being notably south of the other model guidance. Our forecast leaned heavily on the RGEM which tends to be the best performer with Lake Effect events.

Snowfall ratios should maximized under the band given the amount of instability and omega in the snow growth region. Ratios look to increase to on the order of 20:1 given temperatures falling from the 20's into the 10's tonight. This band also looks relatively narrow with snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in the band. If the band stalls snow accumulations into warning criteria will occur so trends will be watched this evening. So a feast or famine event with considerable uncertainty of the locations that can see 6 inches or more of snow by Saturday afternoon. Right now Southern Onondaga, Cayuga and Madison counties having the best chances to see the higher amounts.

A rather cold Saturday as well with lingering snow showers. Winds from the north and clouds will keep temperatures rather steady throughout the day in the 10's and 20's. Momentum transfer does show a gusty day as well with top gusts of 20-25 mph.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. 330 PM Update: Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will slowly shift to the east across our area through the weekend. Cold northwest flow will be slow to release its grip on the area, but lake effect snow showers will diminish by Sunday morning, and some breaks of sun will be possible, especially east of I-81. Temperatures look to be at their coldest on Saturday Night/ Sunday morning, with negative single digits across northern Oneida County, and teens commonplace elsewhere. However, slackening winds, low humidity and clearing skies might lead to some spots being colder on Sunday Night/Monday morning, particularly valleys and hollows due to radiational cooling.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. 330 PM Update: Deterministic models have continued to trend towards a snowier solution for much of the CWA for the period from Monday Night through Tuesday Night. GFS/CMC/ECMWF all have similar versions of the same story with a surface low moving from the Central Plains into and peaking in intensity as it moves across the Ohio Valley Monday Night as a secondary low forms off the Delmarva Peninsula. The original surface low then rapidly weakens over western PA on Tuesday as the coastal moves to the east, south of New England. A band of light to moderate snow looks to set up across the area, focused along the PA/NY border. The GFS features the deepest surface low, and highest QPF amounts (a little over 1 inch in places), while the ECMWF remains the weakest, with around 0.30 inches QPF, running slightly behind the Canadian.

Ensemble plumes suggest the deterministic GFS is on the higher side of the ensemble spread, while the probability of 6 inch snowfall in 24hr is around 40 to 50 percent and focused just south of the NY/PA state lines. The ECMWF ensemble probs for the same amount are less than 10 percent, though the 3 inch+ prob is 50 to 60, again focused just south of the state line.

It's still too early for any solid accumulation forecasts, but as the previous shift indicated, the chances for a "plowable" snowfall with some considerable travel impacts continue to slowly increase, but some inter-model consistency on system strength would be nice to see to increase confidence.

Quieter weather looks to persist behind this system through mid- week, with NW flow returning and likely lake effect clouds as well. Another system similar to the first may try to close out the weekend, but model consensus keeps this well to our south (again), and will need to be watched to see if it trends northward as well.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Overspreading Arctic air and northwest winds are causing lake effect snow showers and associated fuel alternate-IFR restrictions for KSYR-KRME this evening with up to a few inches of fluffy dry runway accumulations. Snow showers will tend to shift south overnight to exit KSYR-KRME yet then reaching KITH- KBGM late tonight into Saturday morning. Though KELM could get skimmed by flurries; VFR will be predominant there and especially for KAVP. Winds Saturday may get rather gusty; in excess of 20 knots at times. Main forecast uncertainties are exact timing for exit of snow from KRME and especially KSYR overnight, and then how long intermittent IFR snow showers will persist Saturday morning KBGM-KITH; perhaps even through midday. KSYR could also get revisited by snow showers Saturday morning. It is also at least possible for KELM to get snow showers Saturday morning with associated brief restrictions.

Outlook . Saturday night through Monday morning . High pressure and VFR conditions.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday . Possible restrictions with snow. Accumulations possible on runways. Highest chance for restrictions at KAVP, KELM and KBGM.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Mainly VFR.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. PA . None. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ017-018- 036-037-044.

SYNOPSIS . MDP/MWG NEAR TERM . MDP/MWG SHORT TERM . MPH LONG TERM . MPH AVIATION . MDP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 46 mi56 min NW 25 G 31 28°F 1012.4 hPa17°F
OBGN6 - 8311030 - Ogdensburg, NY 81 mi56 min 20°F 1011.9 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Griffiss Air Force Base / Rome, NY24 mi33 minW 73.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist26°F22°F84%1011.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRME

Wind History from RME (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E3E4E4CalmCalmW10W9W10W10W8
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1 day agoNE4S3E5E7E6E6E7E7E8SE9E7E8E8E8E4S4SE4SE3SW4S4SE3E3SW5SW6
2 days agoW7W6W11SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W6NW5W9W10W15W21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.