Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Sanilac, MI
February 19, 2025 6:38 AM EST (11:38 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 7:18 AM Sunset 6:07 PM Moonrise 12:35 AM Moonset 10:03 AM |
LHZ463 Lake Huron From Harbor Beach To Port Sanilac Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Port Sanilac To Port Huron Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 325 Am Est Wed Feb 19 2025
Today - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow in the evening - .then snow likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Snow likely in the morning - . Then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet early in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon - .then becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots late in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots until early morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
wave heights are for ice free areas.
LHZ400
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Area Discussion for Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 190822 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Light snowfall chances today across Mid Michigan and into the northern Thumb. Better chances for widespread light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a system passes to our south but reaches up into Michigan. Generally around a half inch of snow is expected.
- Northerly winds Thursday may push a lake effect snow band off Lake Huron into the northern and eastern Thumb which could result in some snow accumulations.
- Temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below normal will hold through the remainder of the week.
DISCUSSION
A strong 1050mb surface centered over southern Saskatchewan will drift down through the Plains Wednesday and Thursday before spreading eastward to encompass all of the conus east of the Rockies. This will help guide the forecast for the next several days as we this weakening high and moderating airmass resides over the area.
For today we have continued northerly flow with the high well to our west, setting up the favored regions for lake effect across the Great Lakes. This typically doesn't affect SE MI but we do have a lake aggregate trough draped across the northern Lakes, remains of the low now over far eastern Canada, which will get dislodged and forced southward today as a mid level wave drops into the broader trough and then through the Ohio Valley. As this trough drop south it will focus the moisture and low level convergence from the various lake bands/plumes across lower MI. This should be good enough to produce at least flurries if not light snow across Mid MI and the Thumb this afternoon as the trough reaches those areas. The NAM, RAP, and RGEM all support some low level convergence banding beneath the inversion around 6kft this afternoon. Plus that airmass already has flakes in it so the extra focus should be seen in that area. Farther south the expectation is for the dry BL air to hold through the day. Not to say we can't get some flurries later, but there is more support to the north. Regardless, trace amounts to a dusting are expected.
Heading into tonight, the mid level low will skirt by with the northern periphery reaching up into MI. Weak isentropic ascent with a band of EPV and weak deformation looks to be enough to spread a broader coverage of light snow across southern MI, focused in the 09- 15Z Thursday morning window. This is all while the stronger forcing from the lake trough still resides over the area. We have likely pops going for the bulk of this time window which seem on track at this time. Overall it will be a higher pops, lower QPF system as moisture quality is not there, with models only generating a few hundreths. Forecast is for around a half inch of snowfall. One thing to watch Thursday will be the enhanced northerly flow behind the lake trough, which hires models are showing to be sufficient to push the dominate (whats left of it) lake band into the Thumb. So will highlight higher pops for the northern and eastern Thumb for some additional lake effect.
Surface high holds Friday into the weekend with winds turning more westerly allowing for a warming trend through the forecast with highs reaching the 30s by Sunday and even into the 40s next week.
There are a couple weak waves seen in the longer range models in the W-NW flow this weekend into next week as well but we'll see how they interact with the ridge as they race through the northern Great Lakes.
MARINE
Weak/ill-defined pressure pattern in place today will result in predominately light winds, at or below 15 knots.
High pressure tracking south through the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, coupled with deepening low pressure off the East Coast will result in increasing northerly winds over the Central Great Lakes region for the Thursday-Thursday night, but likely only topping out in the 20-25 knot range per local probabilistic guidance.
Ridge of high pressure slides through on Friday, allowing for at least moderate return southwest flow to develop Friday evening- Saturday. Airmass still looks to be cold enough to support near lake surface unstable profiles, and gusts of 25 to 30 knots seem doable, particularly for Central sections of Lake Huron.
Low pressure looks to be tracking through the Great Lakes region Sunday-Monday, but big differences amongst the models with respect to strength and location. Even if the stronger solution verifies, any gale force winds look to be short lived as the low looks to be moving through rather quickly.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1153 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
AVIATION...
Resilient low end VFR ceiling lingers across much of Lower Mi leading up to midnight as west to northwest wind continues across the Great Lakes. The center of surface high pressure builds into the northern Plains while maintaining a supply of polar air across the Lakes to keep clouds activated. The 00Z DTX sounding indicates a much stronger subsidence inversion compared to earlier model soundings which is proving an effective duct for eastward cloud advancement and maintenance into the SE Mi terminal corridor. High clouds also thicken over the region during the night as the next upper level system settles down into the upper Midwest, ahead of the Plains high pressure. Other than a few morning breaks, at least broken low end VFR stratocu below 5000 ft is projected through Wednesday afternoon followed by the next round of light snow later Wednesday night.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight, moderate Wednesday.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 322 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Light snowfall chances today across Mid Michigan and into the northern Thumb. Better chances for widespread light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a system passes to our south but reaches up into Michigan. Generally around a half inch of snow is expected.
- Northerly winds Thursday may push a lake effect snow band off Lake Huron into the northern and eastern Thumb which could result in some snow accumulations.
- Temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below normal will hold through the remainder of the week.
DISCUSSION
A strong 1050mb surface centered over southern Saskatchewan will drift down through the Plains Wednesday and Thursday before spreading eastward to encompass all of the conus east of the Rockies. This will help guide the forecast for the next several days as we this weakening high and moderating airmass resides over the area.
For today we have continued northerly flow with the high well to our west, setting up the favored regions for lake effect across the Great Lakes. This typically doesn't affect SE MI but we do have a lake aggregate trough draped across the northern Lakes, remains of the low now over far eastern Canada, which will get dislodged and forced southward today as a mid level wave drops into the broader trough and then through the Ohio Valley. As this trough drop south it will focus the moisture and low level convergence from the various lake bands/plumes across lower MI. This should be good enough to produce at least flurries if not light snow across Mid MI and the Thumb this afternoon as the trough reaches those areas. The NAM, RAP, and RGEM all support some low level convergence banding beneath the inversion around 6kft this afternoon. Plus that airmass already has flakes in it so the extra focus should be seen in that area. Farther south the expectation is for the dry BL air to hold through the day. Not to say we can't get some flurries later, but there is more support to the north. Regardless, trace amounts to a dusting are expected.
Heading into tonight, the mid level low will skirt by with the northern periphery reaching up into MI. Weak isentropic ascent with a band of EPV and weak deformation looks to be enough to spread a broader coverage of light snow across southern MI, focused in the 09- 15Z Thursday morning window. This is all while the stronger forcing from the lake trough still resides over the area. We have likely pops going for the bulk of this time window which seem on track at this time. Overall it will be a higher pops, lower QPF system as moisture quality is not there, with models only generating a few hundreths. Forecast is for around a half inch of snowfall. One thing to watch Thursday will be the enhanced northerly flow behind the lake trough, which hires models are showing to be sufficient to push the dominate (whats left of it) lake band into the Thumb. So will highlight higher pops for the northern and eastern Thumb for some additional lake effect.
Surface high holds Friday into the weekend with winds turning more westerly allowing for a warming trend through the forecast with highs reaching the 30s by Sunday and even into the 40s next week.
There are a couple weak waves seen in the longer range models in the W-NW flow this weekend into next week as well but we'll see how they interact with the ridge as they race through the northern Great Lakes.
MARINE
Weak/ill-defined pressure pattern in place today will result in predominately light winds, at or below 15 knots.
High pressure tracking south through the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, coupled with deepening low pressure off the East Coast will result in increasing northerly winds over the Central Great Lakes region for the Thursday-Thursday night, but likely only topping out in the 20-25 knot range per local probabilistic guidance.
Ridge of high pressure slides through on Friday, allowing for at least moderate return southwest flow to develop Friday evening- Saturday. Airmass still looks to be cold enough to support near lake surface unstable profiles, and gusts of 25 to 30 knots seem doable, particularly for Central sections of Lake Huron.
Low pressure looks to be tracking through the Great Lakes region Sunday-Monday, but big differences amongst the models with respect to strength and location. Even if the stronger solution verifies, any gale force winds look to be short lived as the low looks to be moving through rather quickly.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 1153 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025
AVIATION...
Resilient low end VFR ceiling lingers across much of Lower Mi leading up to midnight as west to northwest wind continues across the Great Lakes. The center of surface high pressure builds into the northern Plains while maintaining a supply of polar air across the Lakes to keep clouds activated. The 00Z DTX sounding indicates a much stronger subsidence inversion compared to earlier model soundings which is proving an effective duct for eastward cloud advancement and maintenance into the SE Mi terminal corridor. High clouds also thicken over the region during the night as the next upper level system settles down into the upper Midwest, ahead of the Plains high pressure. Other than a few morning breaks, at least broken low end VFR stratocu below 5000 ft is projected through Wednesday afternoon followed by the next round of light snow later Wednesday night.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight, moderate Wednesday.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
HRBM4 - 9075014 - Harbor Beach, MI | 33 mi | 50 min | 35°F | 30.36 | ||||
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 39 mi | 50 min | 30.38 | |||||
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 41 mi | 50 min | 30.39 | |||||
KP58 | 47 mi | 43 min | WNW 9.9G | 17°F | 30.43 | 7°F |
Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBAX
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBAX
Wind History Graph: BAX
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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