Thursday, September24, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Barker, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 7:09PM Thursday September 24, 2020 10:53 AM EDT (14:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:31PMMoonset 11:25PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ062 Lake Ontario Open Waters From The Niagara River To Hamlin Beach- 1043 Pm Edt Wed Sep 23 2020
Overnight..Northwest winds less than 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds less than 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ062 Expires:202009240915;;272143 FZUS61 KBUF 240243 GLFLO Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1043 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2020 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Ontario Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A 30.0 inch high over the Ohio Valley will generally remain in place through Thursday. The area of high pressure will move off the East Coast Thursday night and Friday...while a weak frontal boundary will be stalled to the north of the lake. A cold front over the Upper Great Lakes Friday night will stall before reaching Lake Ontario on Saturday. A second...more potent cold front will cross the lake during the second half of the weekend. LOZ062-240915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Barker, NY
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location: 43.55, -78.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 241358 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 958 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2020

SYNOPSIS. Fair weather is expected through the remainder of the week as surface high pressure remains nearby. There will be a chance for a few stray showers this afternoon before drier air increases and cloud cover decreases for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average some 10 degrees above normal through the period.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. This morning surface high pressure is located over the Lower Ohio Valley. A wealth of cirrus is spreading across WNY this morning. Despite this, some low clouds and fog still managed to form over a few areas, most notably east of Lake Ontario. But, most of this should mix out before noon.

The airmass will be unstable this afternoon, with already some cumulus over Southern Ontario. The HRRR is fairly aggressive in developing this over the Niagara Frontier by noon, while other higher res models wait until later this afternoon for convective initiation forced by lake breeze boundaries. Will keep the forecast unchanged with most areas remaining dry, but with a chance for a shower under lake breeze areas. 12Z sounding supports a dry layer above 800mb, so while there's low level moisture, it won't have too much to work with once any air parcels start rising. Considering the low overall threat for precipitation in general, isolated thunderstorms looks reasonable.

This convective activity will wane during the evening with the loss of daytime instability. Surface high pressure will fade to the east coast tonight, though winds will remain light across our region. With light winds and clear skies, areas of fog will likely fill the river valleys of the southern two tiers of counties of WNY.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. This period will feature dry conditions with some late summertime warmth. A weak front dipping toward Lake Ontario late tonight into Friday morning is quickly served northward into Ontario and Quebec as a warm front by Friday afternoon as flow aloft becomes more southwest ahead of trough over the northern Plains. Just a small chance of an isolated shower Friday morning over North Country. Otherwise, a period of late summertime warmth will return Friday into Saturday as highs reach the middle to upper 70s both days with even a few 80 degree readings south of Lake Ontario by Saturday. Winds will be light on Friday with some lake breezes forming. Expect a more steadier south wind on Saturday to keep lake breezes from extending too far inland especially off Lake Ontario. Stronger shortwave in west-southwest flow aloft stays north of our region on Saturday night, so expect dry and mild weather to continue.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. One more warmer and mostly dry day Sunday. Eventually a much cooler very fall like pattern develops during this time with increasing chances of rain.

Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend, but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.

Eventually, as sharp shortwave trough digging over the central CONUS lifts northeast across the lower Great Lakes, our weather will turn cooler and unsettled with showers further enhanced in intensity and coverage as cooler air flows over the warmer lakes. Could also have a period of windy conditions as well if a stronger and deepening sfc low tracks nnw of our region. Consistency in any one solution is lacking, so best to stay tuned to later forecasts for more details on when the rain and significant cooling arrives in earnest and if there will be any stronger, advisory type winds.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. VFR conditions are expected this afternoon, although KIAG and possibly KBUF and KROC may have to watch out for a passing shower under lake breeze boundaries. Tonight river valley will likely fill the river valleys of the southern two tiers of counties of WNY, and likely expand across the KJHW terminal late tonight with IFR visibilities.

Outlook .

Friday through Saturday . VFR. Sunday . MVFR in chance of showers. Monday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Quiet weather is expected into Saturday with surface high pressure nearby. The next active weather period will arrive Sunday and into Monday as a frontal system moves across the region. Boating conditions will deteriorate at that time with numerous opportunities for small craft conditions next week as cooler air pools aloft.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . Thomas NEAR TERM . Thomas/Zaff SHORT TERM . JLA LONG TERM . JLA AVIATION . Thomas/Zaff MARINE . Thomas/Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OLCN6 - Olcott Harbor, NY 16 mi53 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 66°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.7)
45159 - NW Lake Ontario Ajax 25 mi53 min NE 3.9 G 5.8 61°F 64°F1014.2 hPa (+1.2)
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 39 mi53 min 66°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.8)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 49 mi53 min SSW 9.9 G 12 66°F 68°F1015.4 hPa (+1.0)46°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Niagara Falls, Niagara Falls International Airport, NY35 mi60 minSW 1210.00 miFair67°F63°F87%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIAG

Wind History from IAG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW43N5SW45SW9SW12SW13SW11SW8SW10SW9W10SW10SW11W8SW9W5SW5SW5SW5SW4SW8W4
2 days agoSW10SW5SE7SE6Calm3NE10NE11NE6NE5E4E7E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.