Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scar, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

11:35am Update... Refreshed POPs through the day as low pressure continues to move through the Gulf of Maine. Showers increase again across southern areas this afternoon as the upper level low moves in from the west. Temps remain cool, with highs mainly in the 40s, and any low 50s confined to southern locations.
Overall no major changes as the forecast remains on track.

Update...Surface low center passing our longitude now will start to pull the back edge of eastward and continue to edge winds to a more northwesterly direction. This should allow for the weakening of the deformation band of precip parked near the ME/NH border
As some might say
what if it was all snow? Adjusted highest PoP and QPF to be under this band for the next 6 hours. May also see additional light accumulations of snow above 2500 feet.

Previous discussion...The strongest forcing has moved into Downeast ME this morning...with the deformation banded precip pivoting and weakening over the western ME mtns. PoP will gradually diminish from this point forward thru the day...as will the threat of heavy precip.

Perusing the webcams in the lower elevations of the mtns and I do not see any evidence of snow this morning. Based on temps...snow is likely confined to elevations above 2500 ft. I do not anticipate temps to cool any further...so this is probably going to be the lower limit of snowfall today. However the high peaks will still feel like winter today...with wind chills in the teens and single digits.

Showers will continue today...becoming a little more widespread in coverage this afternoon during peak diurnal heating. Record cold high temps are a little bit cooler today than yesterday...so it will be a little bit harder to break those records
However it will be closer
with readings across much of southern NH and southwestern ME struggling to climb out of the 40s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Tonight the low pressure will drift into New Brunswick. So while the steady rain will have come to an end...showers will remain a possibility thru the overnight. As the upper trof axis swings into the area there may be a more focused area of shower activity across southern NH and southwestern ME that slowly crosses the region into Sat morning. I have an area of likely PoP to reflect this...but otherwise showers should be mostly chance PoP/scattered in nature as low fills and cuts off.

Temps will remain fairly steady overnight given all the cloud cover and lack of any real advection. The same story goes for Sat...where lack of significant diurnal heating will keep temps well below normal. But there should be enough late breaks in clouds near the coast and over parts of southern NH to climb into the mid 50s to near 60.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Long term update...Unsettled weather continues Sat into Sun but improvement in generally foreseen Sunday afternoon and Monday even though some showery weather will still be possible. The midweek looks better with highs likely returning into the 70s for most. 01z NBM has been blended into the going forecast and results in little departure from these general ideas.

Overview: Some wraparound showers possible on Saturday as a low moves northeastward. A quick moving shortwave moves southeasterly over the northeast, bringing a chance to see an isolated shower or two over New Hampshire Sunday. Skies clear for the first half of next week, though a diurnal shower or two can't be ruled out across western NH. Towards the end of the week, two upper-level lows merge over New England. The upper-level lows could bring more unsettled and cooler weather next weekend.

Details: Low pressure retreats to the northeast through the day Saturday. Continued overcast skies will keep high temperatures cool, with 50s likely across NH and western ME. Wraparound convective showers are likely as the environment shows a small layer of low-level instability, with ~50J of CAPE up to about 800mb/7000ft. Light winds across the vertical profile should make showers move southeasterly, and should continue through Saturday evening. Light northwest flow should allow for cool lows Saturday night, with lows in the 40s.

Skies start to clear out on Sunday, as high pressure moves in. The clearing skies should also allow for a noticeably warmer day, high temperatures make it into the low 60s for most. A weak shortwave from the northwest will bring a chance to see an isolated shower or two in the afternoon. Skies then continue to clear out Sunday night. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for radiational cooling, with lows again in the mid 40s.

Temperatures look to warm in the first-half of next week, with upper- level ridging moving in from the west. A few diurnally-driven showers remain possible in the afternoons, though Monday-Wednesday should be dry and mostly clear for most. Generally looking at upper 60s and lower 70s, though Tuesday is forecast to be the warmest day of the three, with low to mid-70s.

Towards the end of next week, two upper-level lows arrive in New England. One comes from the west, with unsettled weather arriving on Thursday. This low could merge with another upper-level low from the north on Friday. The two upper-level lows over the area next weekend may suggest that another wet and cool weekend is on tap.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Short Term...Widespread MVFR conditions with pockets of IFR into the early afternoon. Steady rain continues to become more showery thru the day. As winds turn more northwesterly IFR conditions should scatter out and become MVFR once again. That likely continues for much of the night and into Sat before improvement to VFR.

Long Term...
Ceilings and visibility likely improve during the day Saturday, as a low moves out of the area. Mostly VFR is expected afterwards through the first half of next week as high pressure moves in from the west.

MARINE
Short Term... Winds have fallen below gale force, but SCA conditions remain across the waters. Winds will slowly become more northwesterly today and will remain gusty in the afternoon.
Seas will take longer to diminish after building over 15 ft outside the bays. SCA conditions will likely continue into Saturday morning.

Long Term...
Seas of 2-5ft are expected Saturday, diminishing to 2-3ft by Sunday morning. Northwest winds of 8-12kts are likely through the weekend, diminishing through the day Sunday. Fair marine conditions are expected through the first half of next week, as high pressure moves in.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150- 152>154.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151.