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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 942 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and early morning, then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 030351 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1151 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

AVIATION

Extended stretch of dry and stable conditions will continue this taf period. This environment will maintain a clear sky, with light winds generally from a southerly direction. A period of shallow fog development will again be possible during the early morning hours, with FNT most susceptible based on the response last night. With that, some degree of visibility reduction remains plausible across the Detroit corridor.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

DISCUSSION...

Strong ridging and the associated surface high pressure will govern the weather with above normal temperatures here in early October.
South to southwest return flow around the high will draw in an airmass characterized by 850mb temperatures to 15-17C into mid- week.
Subsidence has supported mostly clear skies and is also helping the daytime highs climb mostly into the low 80s. Persistence rules for tonight/tomorrow morning with the potential again for at least patchy fog development under a strong inversion with dewpoints holding in the mid to upper 50s, though it looks less widespread than this morning. Condensation pressure deficits point toward one area with the greatest fog potential, which will be across Wayne and Monroe County supported by better moisture off Lake Erie and the potential for advective fog.

Tuesday will see the surface high pressure slide east and center over the central Applachian Mountains. Forecast soundings show mixing heights topping out below 850mb and coming into slightly better alignment compared to today, though, there remains some difference which will ultimately determine the eventual high temperatures during the afternoon. Temperatures still expected to land in the low to mid 80s.

Longwave troughing arrives across the central United States Wednesday pushing the ridge and high pressure off the east coast and bringing deep southwesterly flow across Michigan. Higher mixing depths are expected Wednesday under the same thermal ridge. This will help temperatures climb more solidly into the mid 80s. The mixing heights will also allow for an increase in winds with lower level southwest flow increasing. Gusts during the afternoon will climb to around 20 mph.

The affects of the inbound trough will begin to be felt Thursday as a strong frontal system slides through the region bringing falling temperatures and increasing rainfall chances. Some timing difference will be sorted out over the next forecast cycles, but have dialed back PoPs during the Wednesday night period favoring a slightly slower solution. Likely rainfall will arrive by Thursday afternoon, which will also help cool down temperatures closer to normal values for early October with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Temperatures will come crashing down further Friday into the weekend as the thermal trough with 850mb temperatures of 0C or below arrive over the region. This would result in high temperatures topping out in the low to mid 50s over the weekend as rain chances continue during this stretch as well.

MARINE...

Expansive area of high pressure remains in control of the eastern half of the US and will do so through the middle of the week. With the center of the high just off to the southeast, the prevailing wind direction will be southwesterly through this stretch with light winds through Tuesday. Gradient becomes a bit tighter on Wednesday as a cold front approaches from the west increasing wind speeds to 15 to 20 knots. Offshore winds will help keep wave heights minimized in the nearshore zones. A Pacific coast system tracking through the Plains will then drive a cold front through the region Thursday. An uptick in winds and shower chances accompany the frontal passage with an upper low filling in across the Great Lakes to end the work week.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record high temperatures for October 2nd, 3rd and 4th:

October 2nd: Detroit 86 (set in 1971)
Flint 85 (set in 1922)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 87 (set in 1971)

October 3rd: Detroit 89 (set in 1953)
Flint 89 (set in 1953)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 87 (set in 2005)

October 4th: Detroit 89 (set in 1951)
Flint 88 (set in 1951)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 87 (set in 1967)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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