Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Freeland, MI

AVIATION

The center of the high pressure system now over the eastern Great Lakes will drift to New England tonight. Surface ridging will hold across Se Mi into Monday afternoon within persistent large scale subsidence across the region. This will maintain very dry ambient air across Se Mi, maintaining clear skies into Monday. The position of the surface ridge will also support continued light east to southeasterly winds through the TAF period.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms are expected during for the current forecast period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and seasonable temperatures to wrap up Mother's Day, as ridging across a deep layer yields high magnitude subsidence within a very dry resident airmass. Surface high drifts east over the next 24 hours, while high amplitude upper ridging strengthens locally during this time. High degree of stability maintained in this pattern ensures benign wx conditions through Monday. A light easterly gradient again limits full decoupling tonight, with a modest radiational cooling profile supporting lows broadly distributed in the 40s. A more noteworthy increase in the thermal profile Monday, as the upper ridge axis centers overhead and mean thicknesses respond accordingly in combination with high insolation potential. Highs pushing to near/just above 80 degrees for inland areas not subjected to potential afternoon lake breeze influence.

Closed mid level low and surface occlusion still lingering over the gulf coast will drift northward while gradually weakening with time early next week. Initial pockets of shortwave energy pivoting through the broad cyclonic periphery will guide a plume of higher theta-e into the area Monday night. Shower potential increases accordingly. Intermittently unsettled conditions then expected across the Tue-Wed periods, as additional rounds of cva engage a moist resident environment characterized by PW of 1.5". Forecast will continue to highlight the back end of the diurnal heating cycle both days for greater precipitation potential, allowing for at least modest late day destabilization of an above average thermal profile to contribute to existing background ascent. The underlying airmass would support highs well into the 70s both days, assuming a more widespread rainfall episode fails to materialize. Overall convective vigor appears restricted by weak lapse rates, with limited wind magnitude throughout the column.

Residual mid level troughing lifts to the northeast Thursday, as attention shifts to a strengthening mid level wave ejecting out of the northern plains. Brief window for shortwave upper ridging to offer greater influence Thursday in supporting warmer conditions.
Potentially the warmest and most humid day of the spring thus far, with highs pushing well into the 80s paired with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Favorable late day thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist upstream for convective initiation and expansion.
Downstream propagation of the governing forced ascent will work to direct this activity east of lake Michigan Thursday night. This brings a good chance for showers and thunderstorms locally. The nocturnal timing applies the usual suspicion when gauging prospective convective vigor with any inbound activity, but a strongly forced environment with a noted increase in deep layer shear gives pause to the potential should sufficient buoyancy remain within the column. Trailing cold front may offer a secondary window for convective development late Friday into Friday night, but considerable model spread remains regarding the eastward pace of the parent low and attendant frontal features. One final day of well above average temps to finish the work week, then turning more seasonable next weekend.

MARINE...

Light winds, mostly under 15 knots this afternoon, as high pressure resides of the Eastern Great Lakes. Modest return flow/southeast winds developing tonight into Monday. A large low pressure system will lift out of the southern Mississippi River Valley, which will allow for periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday evening through Wednesday. With the airmass continuing to modify however, winds outside of any convection will remain light through the mid week period. A stronger storm system slowly tracking through the northern Plains to end the work week will likely trigger additional showers and thunderstorms, some of which will be strong.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.