Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight.

2) Active pattern early next week.

DISCUSSION
Key Message 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms through early tonight.

The potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through early tonight. The greatest potential this afternoon and evening will be along lake breeze boundaries as MLCAPE values ramp up to 2500 J/Kg. Given the moist environment, with PWATs ~1.5" locally heavy rainfall is the primary threat. The threat for severe weather remains low with marginal shear profiles, but if convection can become organized there is some risk for damaging wind gusts.

A weak cold front currently across the central Great Lakes will arrive early tonight. This will bring the additional threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The threat for showers and storms ends with the frontal passage, with a gradual drying trend overnight.

Key Message 2...Active pattern early next week.

A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Great Lakes region Monday. A frontal boundary will be located across western portions of the area. A moist airmass will be in place within the warm sector south of the boundary, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and 70s. This will contribute to at least moderate diurnal instability to aid the development of scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. There will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall within the moist airmass. There will be threat for severe weather with moderate shear profiles in place, with the greater risk across the western Southern Tier. The threat for additional showers and thunderstorms should continue Monday night as the frontal boundary pushes through the region.

AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
At the surface, a high pressure ridge exits E'ward before a cold front sweeps E'ward across our region between ~02Z/Sun and ~09Z/Sun. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the western Great Lakes through 00Z/Mon. Our regional surface winds trend SW'erly around 5 to 10 knots ahead of the front. Behind the front, variable winds no stronger than about 5 to 10 knots are expected, although surface winds should become calm at times through about daybreak Sun morning.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front. Periods of heavy rainfall and brief MVFR to LIFR are expected with showers and storms.
Some storms may produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to perhaps 50 knots, especially prior to 04Z/Sun. Note: considerable clearing, weak or calm surface winds, and lingering moisture at/near the surface should result in patchy mist and fog overnight, especially during the predawn hours of Sun morning through shortly after daybreak and along/near lakes/rivers in the Western Southern Tier, Genesee Valley, Finger Lakes, and east of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Sunday...Fair weather and VFR expected.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR, but periodic showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or worse conditions are possible.

MARINE
Southwest winds will continue at around 15 knots through this evening on Lake Erie ahead of a cold front, producing a moderate chop. Winds should be lighter on Lake Ontario. Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening could bring locally higher winds and waves with any stronger storms.

Weak high pressure will build across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night with lighter winds and lower wave heights.

Gradient flow through early next week will only be modest and generally 15 knots or less, with any marine headlines likely tied to any thunderstorm activity.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.