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LOZ045 Mexico Bay To The Saint Lawrence River Along Lake Ontario- 344 Pm Est Mon Nov 27 2023
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..West gales to 35 knots. Lake effect rain and snow early, then lake effect rain showers and lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible from late evening on. Waves 11 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Tuesday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 30 knots. Lake effect snow with some rumbles of Thunder possible in the morning, then lake effect snow showers likely with some rumbles of Thunder possible in the afternoon. Waves 10 to 15 feet subsiding to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds to 30 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely with scattered Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Lake effect snow showers likely with some rumbles of Thunder possible in the morning, then lake effect rain showers and lake effect snow in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow and lake effect rain showers in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Rain likely during the day, then rain and snow showers likely Friday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBUF 280931 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 431 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Significant lake effect snow continues through the evening east and southeast of the lakes. Lake effect snow then swings back north late tonight and early Wednesday, but in a weakened state with light accumulations expected northeast of the lakes. A weak clipper passes through the region Wednesday which may bring some light snow showers to the area. High pressure then briefly builds in Thursday with relatively quiet weather. Unsettled milder weather returns towards the end of the work week with more of a rain system.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO...

Early this morning, stronger lake snow band off Erie continues to sink across the Southern Tier with secondary area of heavier snow is north of this along the Erie/Catt border and into far northwest Allegany County. Off Lake Ontario, a long and focused lake connected plume with a couple bands with heavier bursts (3+"/hr rates)
embedded within them continues to impact the central and southern Tug Hill and into northern half of Oswego County. Still a potential for thunder as lake induced equilibrium levels approach 20K feet.
Temps in the lake convective layer are mainly -10c or colder, so mixed phase processes may be limited. This could explain general lack of thunder early this morning but given the intensity of the lake effect band(s) certainly cannot rule it out.

Later this morning, WNW flow will gradually veer further to NW. This will force lake effect off Erie to transition into an upslope scenario rather than a single intense band, with snow mainly across the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge. High-res model guidance continues to suggest a strong upstream connection to Lake Huron, which will enhance snowfall rates and amounts in a narrow zone. The greatest snowfall amounts through late this afternoon will occur over the Chautauqua ridge through the Boston Hills where upstream connections will likely produce additional snowfall amounts near a foot locally. Strongest winds likely found to the north of the heaviest lake snows but nonetheless winds still gusting to 25 to 30 will produce near whiteout conditions making travel very difficult at times. Stronger NW winds will also push focused snow bands into portions of Allegany County with at least advisory level snowfall in parts of the county. Have issued a new Winter Weather Advisory to cover this potential.

Off Lake Ontario...Primary band of heavy lake snow has settled a bit farther south since late Monday evening on a uniform 270 flow, now focused over central and southern Tug Hill and into northern Oswego County. Heavier snow is falling even at lower elevations, such as Lowville and Glenfield per NYS Mesonet camera. Snow extends all the way to the western Dacks. Snowfall rates will likely hit 3+" per hour at times in the heart of the band early this morning as shortwave crosses the region. The greatest snowfall amounts will be found across the Tug Hill where upstream connections will likely produce up to a foot of snow early this morning. Given the snowfall rates expected, and winds gusting up to 30 mph considerable blowing and drifting snow and very poor visibility is likely.

East of Lake Ontario with the still present long westerly fetch and plenty of upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, snowfall rates even through late morning will still be pushing 3+"/hr across southern Tug Hill and into northern and eastern Oswego County. By early afternoon, moderate to heavy snow off Lake Ontario will shift more across Oswego County and eventually will begin to impact portions of Wayne and northern Cayuga counties. Decent signal that a relatively narrow, but intense band of snow will set up over far western Oswego into N. Cayuga County and extending farther inland to the southeast into BGM forecast area.
Soundings show strong lift within the DGZ where this band develops. Its narrow so it could shift around, but given the potential of several inches of fluffy snow adding up quickly added N. Cayuga into a Lake Effect Snow Warning and placed Wayne County into an advisory (most snow here will be over the east half of Wayne County with minimal snow west of Lyons and Newark). These two adds to headlines go until 7 am on Wednesday but expect the snow to begin to diminish after midnight as winds begin to back SW.

Areas outside of these two primary lake effect areas will largely see nothing more than a passing snow shower at times, though with the trough overhead today and winds shifting NW, areas on the lake plains from IAG/BUF to ROC will see some snow showers and flurries at times, especially as the stronger band over Ontario brushes onshore. Cold all areas. Temperatures early this morning are in the teens and 20s and apparent temps as low as the single digits in some spots over interior western NY to the Finger Lakes. Not much improvement in the wintry chill for the rest of today as high temperatures will not reach freezing and wind chill values will reside in the teens with a blustery west wind that will be gusting to 25-35 mph strongest on the lake plains as the day progresses.

Late tonight, it still appears that the steering flow will back to southwest ahead of another compact shortwave trough dropping across the Great Lakes. The backing flow will send the lake effect back to the north. Some snow could start to impact the Buffalo Metro and Watertown late Tonight with current indications that both locations could see a quick inch or two of snow and the snow. There may even be a bit heavier snow over southern Jefferson county into northern Oswego County as low-level convergence increases there briefly before the band shifts more to the north very late tonight. Though snowfall amounts will be light in Buffalo and Watertown compared to what has occurred to the south of those areas since Monday the timing is not good as it will be arriving for the Wednesday morning commute and will have no problem sticking to untreated roads as temps will still be in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Next shortwave rotates through the central Lakes Wednesday morning.
This will cause the lake effect snow off both lakes to continue a march to the north through the first half of Wednesday. As is typically the case,lake effect parameters will be weakening at this time, so expect snowfall amounts to be on the lighter side. However, even though an inch or two is forecast off Lake Erie Wednesday morning, could be timed with the morning commute around the Buffalo metro making for some slick travel. Set up off Lake Ontario remains a bit more favorable with a quick burst of several inches possible Wednesday morning across Jefferson and far northern Lewis counties, including the Watertown area. Winds back to SSW Wednesday afternoon with the bulk of any weak lake effect activity across Niagara county off Lake Erie and near the Saint Lawrence River off Lake Ontario where an additional inch or so will be possible, although expect little impact as temperatures in these areas are expected to climb above freezing. Meanwhile, the higher terrain will see highs only in the mid 20s to around 30. Shortwave passes the area Wednesday night causing winds to veer SW then WSW later in the overnight. This will send the lake band off both lakes back southward through the night, possibly producing a couple more inches for areas northeast and east of both Lakes as it swings through. Lows will range through the 20s.

Lingering lake effect activity northeast of the lakes Thursday morning will shut down Thursday afternoon as warmer and drier moves in. Warm enough in fact that any lake effect snow may mix with or even change to plain rain before ending as boundary temps warm. It will be noticeably warmer with all but the higher terrain climbing into the 40s. Next area of low pressure swings through west-central Quebec Thursday night dragging its trailing cold front through the region during the overnight. This will renew precip chances, however this time showers will be mainly in the form of rain, with some wet snow possibly mixed in across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will range from the low 30s across the higher terrain, to the mid and upper 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Model consensus coming into better agreement on the track of a rapidly moving, but weakening system passing by just to our south on Friday. Confidence remains high that precipitation shield on the northern side of the low will move across much of western and northcentral NY. P-type at this point looks to be mainly rain, with a mix possible across the higher terrain.

High pressure quickly builds in from the north briefly drying things out Friday night, with mainly dry weather possibly lasting through much of Saturday. This is where models continue to diverge on the timing and evolution of the next system approaching from the west, which will likely impact the region Sunday and/or Monday with mainly rain (higher elevation mix possible).

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through this afternoon with VLIFR during the heavier periods of lake effect. Outside of lake effect areas though, mainly VFR will prevail with passing snow showers or flurries at times.

Most of the TAF sites will see little to no impact from the heavy snow, with VFR prevailing most of the time at KBUF and KIAG. KROC will see a few snow showers at times today when brief periods of IFR in light snow is possible. KJHW will be the most significantly impacted, with snow briefly reducing the VSBY to near airfield minimums at times through this afternoon.

Lake effect snow shifts north late tonight as winds shift to the southwest. The snow could result in IFR-LIFR vsby at BUF/IAG and ART.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR, with IFR-LIFR in lake effect snow showers.
Thursday...Mainly VFR with lake effect snow ending early.
Friday...Mainly VFR/MVFR with rain showers.
Saturday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Strong westerly winds and only slowly subsiding waves will persist through late this week. Long duration Small Craft Advisories are now in effect for all but the Niagara and St. Lawrence River through later Thursday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ004.
Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ005.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008-012-019-020-085.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for LOZ042>045.

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