Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, NY

KEY MESSAGES
1) A cold front and scattered to numerous showers will cross our region early today, with the front preceded by a brief period of gusty winds.

2) A weak wave sliding along the north side of the departed frontal boundary will then bring a period of light snow later tonight/early Sunday.

3) Lingering light lake effect snow showers Sunday morning, with cold temperatures Sunday through Monday.

4) Low pressure will bring rain, wet snow, and possibly a wintry mix Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by a warming trend for the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front and scattered to numerous showers will cross our region early today, with the front preceded by a brief period of gusty winds.

Surface low pressure near the southern tip of James Bay will eject northeastward across northern Quebec today...with its trailing cold front sliding across our area this morning. Low-level convergence and an uptick in moisture along/out ahead of the front is currently driving the development of scattered to numerous rain showers from western Lake Erie northward to southern Lake Huron...and expect the same to be true as this feature pushes eastward and across our area this morning. Based on what's currently upstream and the latest short term guidance continuing to trend more aggressive with the frontal pcpn...have also done so in the forecast with PoPs now raised to the high chance to low-end categorical range across much of the area...with the highest probabilities focused across the North Country. Given the rather mild airmass in place of the front...the vast majority of its pcpn will fall in the form of just some plain rain showers...with just a low chance of some wet snow mixing in across the higher terrain of the North Country. The showers will then quickly end from west to east as a colder and drier airmass arrives following the frontal passage...resulting in a dry afternoon along with falling temperatures.

The cold front itself will also be preceded by the passage of a vigorous 50-60 knot southwesterly low level jet...though rather stable thermal profiles ahead of the front will not allow these to mix down to the surface all that effectively...with the orientation of low level wind profiles also unsupportive of a headline-worthy downslope wind event
Nonetheless
we'll still likely see some 30- 35 mph gusts across western portions of the Niagara Frontier and within the Black River Valley prior to/with the cold front...with some higher gusts to around 40 mph also possible along the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds and gusts will then drop off markedly within an hour or two after the frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A weak wave sliding along the north side of the departed frontal boundary will then bring a period of light snow later tonight/early Sunday.

As we move into tonight...a weak baroclinic wave will ripple northeastward along the tightening thermal gradient to the north of the departed surface front...with this quickly sliding across our area during the second half of the night...then exiting to our east by sunrise on Sunday
Forcing provided by this wave
mid-level frontogenetics...and a coupled upper level jet will combine with an commensurate increase in moisture to produce a period of light snow mainly across areas south of Lake Ontario...for which likely PoPs remain in play. Accums from this will be light and look to range from a few tenths of an inch east of Lake Ontario to around an inch in most other locations...with up to 2 inches possible across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Lingering light lake effect snow showers Sunday morning, with cold temperatures Sunday through Monday.

A mid level trough will advance east across Quebec Sunday, with a northwest flow of much colder air supporting some lingering light lake effect and upslope snow showers Sunday morning. While the airmass is quite cold, much drier air and strong subsidence will quickly build into the eastern Great Lakes and limit the duration and intensity of the lake response. Expect another dusting to an inch of accumulation Sunday south of Lake Ontario, with most of that falling in the morning. Strong high pressure will build overhead Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, with associated dry air and subsidence ending lake effect.

Otherwise, it will be quite cold Sunday through Monday. Highs will be in the 20s both days, with teens in the North Country. Lows Sunday night will drop into the single digits for most of the area, and below zero across the North Country with clearing skies and light winds providing good radiational cooling conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Low pressure will bring rain, wet snow, and possibly a wintry mix Tuesday through Tuesday night, followed by a warming trend for the rest of next week.

A notable warming trend will develop across the eastern half of the CONUS next week, with the start of the warming trend marked by weak system with some mixed precipitation potential on Tuesday.

The pattern across North America will become more zonal by the middle of next week, with a Pacific shortwave and weak surface frontal wave moving east across the Great Lakes Tuesday through Tuesday night. Warm advection and moisture transport ahead of the trough will produce a period of precipitation, developing from southwest to northeast on Tuesday and lasting through Tuesday night.

Forecast thermal profiles are marginal for rain vs wet snow at the onset before generally becoming warm enough for all rain later Tuesday through Tuesday evening. There may be a brief window of wintry mix as well during any transition from snow to rain. Thermal profiles will stay a little colder across the North Country, where precipitation may remain snow or a wintry mix for a longer period of time. Overall, this will be a minor event with the relatively weak forcing and rapid movement of the system keeping any snow or wintry mix amounts light.

Looking farther ahead, temperatures will continue the day to day warming trend through the end of next week. Another system will likely move out of the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes, although forecast uncertainty increases significantly by later next week with respect to the timing of this system. Temperatures surface and aloft will be much warmer by this time, so precipitation late in the week will be all rain.

The warming temperatures, increased snowmelt from higher terrain, and additional rainfall may begin to increase the chances of elevated flows on area rivers and creeks. There is still some ice in place, so the risk of ice jams may also increase.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Surface low pressure near the southern tip of James Bay will eject northeastward across northern Quebec today...with its trailing cold front sliding across our area this morning. Low-level convergence and an uptick in moisture out ahead of the front will generate a brief period of scattered to numerous rain showers from the Finger Lakes northeastward across the North Country...with flight conditions correspondingly lowering into the lower VFR/MVFR range.
Following the frontal passage...a brief increase in low level moisture may then produce a short period of MVFR ceilings at most sites this morning...before drier air and subsidence brings a return to widespread VFR for the afternoon.

Out ahead of the front...a vigorous 50-60 knot low level jet will also slide east across the area...before departing with the frontal passage. While stable thermal profiles will prevent these stronger winds from effectively mixing down to the surface...the tightening surface pressure gradient will still allow for some ~30 knot gusts northeast of the lakes out ahead of/right along the front...with gusts to 35 knots possible along the Lake Erie shoreline in the vicinity of KDKK
Outside of the above areas
wind profiles will support LLWS up until the frontal passage...after which the LLWS will dissipate and surface winds will drop off with the departure of the low level jet.

Tonight a weak wave of low pressure will ripple northeastward along the north side of the departed frontal boundary...with a commensurate increase in lift and moisture bringing a period of light snow and IFR visibilities/MVFR ceilings to areas south of Lake Ontario overnight
Elsewhere
flight conditions will lower to MVFR with just a chance for some light snow.

Outlook...

Sunday...Morning lake effect snow showers and attendant IFR likely southeast of Lake Ontario...otherwise improvement to MVFR/VFR.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with rain and snow showers likely.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

MARINE
Advisory-worthy conditions attendant to the approach and passage of a cold front early this morning will gradually improve from west to east during the course of today and this evening. High pressure slowly building southeastward across the Great Lakes will then bring a period of sub-advisory conditions from later tonight through Monday...though locally choppy conditions will likely persist along the south shore of Lake Ontario through the day Sunday.

Please note...most, if not all of the Lake Erie nearshore waters continue to be ice covered. Waves have been omitted from the forecast.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ020- 040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ042.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for LOZ043-044.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LOZ045.