Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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Fxus63 kdtx 241917 afddtx area forecast discussion national weather service detroit pontiac mi 317 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019 Discussion Expansive high pressure (centered over northeast ontario at 1030 mb) will continue to dominate the weather through the weekend over the central great lakes region. 12z dtx showed a stout low level subsidence inversion just under 5000 kft. With the moisture flux off the warm waters of lake huron, a good deal of flat CU developed, but is in the process of mixing out. Tomorrow, lake erie will come more into play as the low level winds back around to the southeast. Airmass modification should be able to support highs in the upper 70s near 80 degrees, as regional gem indicates 850 mb temps reaching around 12 c. Upper level energy shortwave over the central plains will lift into the western great lakes Sunday. This will help begin to break down the upper level ridge in place, as strong pacific wave jet leads to digging trough over the northern plains, with a healthy 500 mb height fall center (-70 m) reaching lake superior by Tuesday morning. Increasing strengthening southwest flow on Monday will transport a good deal of moisture into southern lower michigan, as pw values approach 2 inches. Airmass looks to become weakly unstable, as showalter index lowers AOB zero Monday night, with weak mid level lapse rate (under 6 c km). Moisture advection isentropic assent will support a good chance of showers, but bulk of the heavier shower thunderstorm activity may hold until Tuesday with the actual cold front 850 theta-e ridge, with potential diurnal surface based instability boost. Upper-level trough axis and embedded PV anomalies to travel across michigan Wednesday morning into the afternoon, but despite adequate forcing, post-frontal cool and dry canadian air will significantly limit any precipitation chances for the day. Increase in mechanical mixing tied to CAA will tap into stronger winds aloft (35-40 knots up to h850 per gfs) and will allow for gusty conditions at the surface around 25-30 mph during daylight hours. ECMWF 12z run a little less aggressive with LLJ with wind speeds at 25 - 30 knots at h850, so still room to tweak potential wind gusts leading into the midweek period. Surface high pressure to build in across the tennessee valley Wednesday into Thursday with the northern periphery of high pressure extending into the ohio valley and great lakes. Mid-level flow to stay zonal through the midweek period which will bring little change to temperatures and will keep pops low. Expect daytime highs to hold in the 70s with lows in the 50s during the midweek with a mix of clouds and sunshine (clouds will develop in afternoon with diurnal response). The next chance for rain and possibly thunderstorms will then enter Friday into Saturday, however, will hold pops at only a slight chance as too much divergence is noted between long range model runs. The ECMWF and GFS have a slow moving low pressure system over manitoba or western ontario that eventually is pushed eastward which in turn would drag a cold front across SE mi. However, models

diverge regarding evolution, track, and timing of low pressure. The canadian is dry altogether as the low pressure system remains north of ontario. Marine High pressure translating across the great lakes this weekend will bring quiet conditions with relatively light winds and low waves. North winds will prevail today before turning to the southeast tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east. Winds expected to stay primarily below 15 knots during this time. Winds remain out of the southeast on Monday while increasing into the 15 to 20 knot range with gusts of 25-30 knots possible. The winds will be increasing in response to increasing pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front and low pressure system. This system will bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms during the later half of Monday into Tuesday. Prev discussion Issued at 154 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019 aviation... high pressure moving across the northern great lakes is supporting vfr conditions through this TAF period. Northeast flow off the lakes is producing a sct-bkn CU field that is pushing inland with the greatest sky coverage at the start of this TAF period across ptk and fnt. Expecting coverage to become sct across most southeast michigan into the later afternoon period with cloud heights around 5,000 ft. Winds will be out of the northeast at around 10 knots. Clearing trend with lighter winds into tonight with winds becoming southeasterly tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east. For dtw... Clouds heights will be hovering around 5,000 feet this afternoon with ta sct-bkn CU field supported by lake moisture. The wind direction is bringing the greater cloud cover north of dtw. Lower clouds begin clearing towards the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Dtw threshold probabilities... * low for CIGS at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon. Dtx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lake huron... None. Lake st clair... None. Michigan waters of lake erie... None. Discussion... Sf am marine... ... .Aa aviation... ..Aa you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online at

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	49 min	NE 14 G 17	67°F			1025.4 hPa (-1.0)
45163	32 mi	29 min	NE 9.7 G 14	69°F	73°F	1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	35 mi	69 min	NE 11 G 13	65°F			1026.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	52 mi	69 min	E 7 G 9.9	70°F			1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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N13

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NE12 G15

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NE13 G16

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E12 G15

E10 G13

NE9 G12

NE9 G12

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N12

N10 G13

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N8 G11

NW4 G7

NW5 G8

NW5 G8

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N6 G10

N5 G10

N7 G12

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NW7 G11

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NE12 G15

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S6

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N16 G21

N13 G16

N13 G16

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N18 G23

N16 G20

N12 G16

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NW6 G9

NW6 G9

NW6 G10

NW6 G10

NW5 G8

N10 G14

N14 G17

N12 G15

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N12 G15

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI	10 mi	53 min	NE 10	10.00 mi	Fair	72°F	46°F	41%	1025.7 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI	11 mi	56 min	E 8 G 16	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	71°F	50°F	47%	1026.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI	21 mi	71 min	NE 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	75°F	49°F	41%	1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)

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N9 G14

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NW3

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NE7

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NE8 G16

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N10 G16

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W13 G18

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NW12 G19

W15 G20

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Calm

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.