Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI

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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 221013 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 613 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

AVIATION.

Scattered strato-cu dropping southeast into the area will fade, but SCT-BKN diurnal cumulus will then redevelop later this morning with bases aoa 5000 feet owing to the dry low level air mass in place. West northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots can be expected by midday with winds backing to the southwest tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Low for ceiling at 5000 ft from late morning into the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 338 AM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021

DISCUSSION .

Observations this morning show temperatures that have falling well into the 20s for most of southeast Michigan. Temperatures in the low 20s are currently being observed in Bad Axe. The combination of mostly clear skies and the resident cold airmass that moved into the region is supporting these sub freezing temperatures. The Freeze Warning for all of southeast Michigan will remain in place until 7 am. Daily minimum temperature records at a couple climate sites are at risk of being broken this morning, Flint (23 set in 2013) and Saginaw (25 set in 2013). Current observations at press time show Saginaw currently tied at the record and Flint within a few degrees. Detroit's record of 20 set in 1875 will not be in jeopardy of being broken.

Mid-upper level shortwave ridging will build into the western Great Lakes today while a surface high pressure drives across the Ohio River Valley. This will increase subsidence over the area resulting in limited cloud cover today. A tightening pressure gradient north of this high pressure will be enough to support some gusty afternoon conditions as diurnal mixing depths increase to around 2 km. Latest guidance is not quite as strong in regards to the gusts. Forecast wind gusts for this afternoon will be be around 20-25 mph. Westerly winds will begin to usher in warmer air across southeast Michigan throughout the day. More sunshine today will help daytime highs recover to around 50 degrees for most inland locations.

Continued warming trend into Friday as the ridge dampens and more zonal flow is present throughout the column. Temperatures at 850 mb improve to around 0C as the coldest air is shoved to the east. This will help daytime highs from Friday increase to around 60 degrees. A shortwave moving out of the desert southwest on Friday will generate a low pressure system that is forecast lift northeast out of the southern Mississippi River Valley and into the Ohio River Valley by Saturday evening. This system will bring the next chances for rainfall to southeast Michigan. Good entrance region jet dynamics and some interaction between the northern and southern stream jets will support precipitation up the frontal slope into southeast Michigan Saturday morning. Thermal profiles will be supportive of all rain. After a subtle cool down on Sunday in the wake of the system on Saturday, a longwave pattern shift across the CONUS will bring well above normal temperatures into the middle of next week.

MARINE .

Expansive area of high pressure will slide from the central Plains toward the east coast through the end of the week. Cool northwest flow will relax while backing to more westerly today while remaining generally below 20 knots. Winds then back to the southwest on Friday as the high reaches the east coast putting us on the northwest quadrant. We will remain on the northern periphery of this high until Saturday when the next low approaches the region from the southwest while a trough drops southeast into the region out of Canada.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DG DISCUSSION . AA MARINE . AA

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	81 min	WNW 14 G 17	33°F			1015.6 hPa (+0.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	35 mi	41 min	W 12 G 14	31°F			1015.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	52 mi	41 min	WNW 7 G 8.9	29°F			1015.6 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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NW13 G18

NW12 G19

NW10 G16

N15 G19

NW14 G18

NW12 G17

N13

NW7 G16

N10 G15

N11

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N11

N9 G14

N10 G13

N7

W4

W7

W6

W9

W7

W7

W5 G8

W6

W5 G8

1 day ago

W9 G17

W8 G16

NW8 G17

W11 G16

W9 G14

W8 G12

W9 G15

W9 G12

W8 G12

NW6

NW6 G9

NE12

NE11 G14

NE10 G13

NE12 G15

N13 G16

N16 G20

N16

N15 G21

NW13 G21

NW11 G16

NW9 G13

NW11

NW9 G12

2 days ago

SW10 G13

SW10 G15

SW10 G14

SW13 G18

W14 G19

W13 G20

SW16 G22

W11 G15

W12 G21

W15 G22

W14 G21

W12 G16

W9 G15

W9 G14

W7 G10

NW7 G11

NW11 G15

W8 G13

NW12 G19

NW14 G19

NW6 G11

W7 G12

NW6 G11

W7 G11

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI	10 mi	26 min	WSW 6	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	28°F	18°F	64%	1016.9 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI	11 mi	28 min	WSW 6	10.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	19°F	69%	1017.5 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI	21 mi	26 min	N 0	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	27°F	19°F	72%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)

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NW5

NW5

NW9

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NW11 G14

NW9 G16

N9 G14

NW14 G20

NW15 G20

W10 G15

NW15 G19

NW15 G19

N11 G18

NW10

NW12 G16

NW7

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W6

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W6

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1 day ago

W8

W9

W10

W8 G18

NW8 G16

W8 G14

NW9

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N11 G15

NE4

N6

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N9 G18

2 days ago

SW9

S11

SW14 G19

SW16 G21

SW14

SW15 G24

W12 G19

W15 G22

W17

SW17 G23

W11

W13 G20

W15 G21

W14 G18

W14

W12 G16

W10

W11 G15

NW12

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