Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bay City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday August 24, 2019 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 2:44PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 335 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908250330;;147906 FZUS53 KDTX 241935 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 335 PM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-250330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, MI
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location: 43.58, -83.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 241917
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
317 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Discussion
Expansive high pressure (centered over northeast ontario at 1030 mb)
will continue to dominate the weather through the weekend over the
central great lakes region. 12z dtx showed a stout low level
subsidence inversion just under 5000 kft. With the moisture flux off
the warm waters of lake huron, a good deal of flat CU developed, but
is in the process of mixing out. Tomorrow, lake erie will come more
into play as the low level winds back around to the southeast.

Airmass modification should be able to support highs in the upper
70s near 80 degrees, as regional gem indicates 850 mb temps reaching
around 12 c. Upper level energy shortwave over the central plains
will lift into the western great lakes Sunday. This will help begin
to break down the upper level ridge in place, as strong pacific
wave jet leads to digging trough over the northern plains, with a
healthy 500 mb height fall center (-70 m) reaching lake superior by
Tuesday morning. Increasing strengthening southwest flow on Monday
will transport a good deal of moisture into southern lower michigan,
as pw values approach 2 inches. Airmass looks to become weakly
unstable, as showalter index lowers AOB zero Monday night, with weak
mid level lapse rate (under 6 c km). Moisture advection isentropic
assent will support a good chance of showers, but bulk of the heavier
shower thunderstorm activity may hold until Tuesday with the actual
cold front 850 theta-e ridge, with potential diurnal surface based
instability boost.

Upper-level trough axis and embedded PV anomalies to travel across
michigan Wednesday morning into the afternoon, but despite adequate
forcing, post-frontal cool and dry canadian air will significantly
limit any precipitation chances for the day. Increase in mechanical
mixing tied to CAA will tap into stronger winds aloft (35-40 knots
up to h850 per gfs) and will allow for gusty conditions at the
surface around 25-30 mph during daylight hours. ECMWF 12z run a
little less aggressive with LLJ with wind speeds at 25 - 30 knots at
h850, so still room to tweak potential wind gusts leading into the
midweek period.

Surface high pressure to build in across the tennessee valley
Wednesday into Thursday with the northern periphery of high pressure
extending into the ohio valley and great lakes. Mid-level flow to
stay zonal through the midweek period which will bring little change
to temperatures and will keep pops low. Expect daytime highs to hold
in the 70s with lows in the 50s during the midweek with a mix of
clouds and sunshine (clouds will develop in afternoon with diurnal
response).

The next chance for rain and possibly thunderstorms will then enter
Friday into Saturday, however, will hold pops at only a slight
chance as too much divergence is noted between long range model
runs. The ECMWF and GFS have a slow moving low pressure system over
manitoba or western ontario that eventually is pushed eastward which
in turn would drag a cold front across SE mi. However, models
diverge regarding evolution, track, and timing of low pressure. The
canadian is dry altogether as the low pressure system remains north
of ontario.

Marine
High pressure translating across the great lakes this weekend will
bring quiet conditions with relatively light winds and low waves.

North winds will prevail today before turning to the southeast
tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east. Winds expected to
stay primarily below 15 knots during this time. Winds remain out of
the southeast on Monday while increasing into the 15 to 20 knot
range with gusts of 25-30 knots possible. The winds will be
increasing in response to increasing pressure gradient ahead of an
approaching front and low pressure system. This system will bring
the next chance for showers and thunderstorms during the later half
of Monday into Tuesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 154 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019
aviation...

high pressure moving across the northern great lakes is supporting
vfr conditions through this TAF period. Northeast flow off the lakes
is producing a sct-bkn CU field that is pushing inland with the
greatest sky coverage at the start of this TAF period across ptk and
fnt. Expecting coverage to become sct across most southeast michigan
into the later afternoon period with cloud heights around 5,000 ft.

Winds will be out of the northeast at around 10 knots. Clearing trend
with lighter winds into tonight with winds becoming southeasterly
tomorrow as the high pressure departs to the east.

For dtw... Clouds heights will be hovering around 5,000 feet this
afternoon with ta sct-bkn CU field supported by lake moisture. The
wind direction is bringing the greater cloud cover north of dtw.

Lower clouds begin clearing towards the evening with the loss of
daytime heating.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for CIGS at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Aa
aviation... ..Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi49 min NE 14 G 17 67°F 1025.4 hPa (-1.0)
45163 32 mi29 min NE 9.7 G 14 69°F 73°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 35 mi69 min NE 11 G 13 65°F 1026.8 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 52 mi69 min E 7 G 9.9 70°F 1027.1 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N13
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N12
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N6
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G11
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N16
G21
N13
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G14
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G17
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G16
N12
N12
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI10 mi53 minNE 1010.00 miFair72°F46°F41%1025.7 hPa
MBS International Airport, MI11 mi56 minE 8 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F50°F47%1026.2 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI21 mi71 minNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F49°F41%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYX

Wind History from HYX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9
G14
NE10
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N10NE6NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE7E9NE8
G16
NE7NE10
G15
N9
G15
1 day agoNE4NE4N4CalmCalmN3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmNW4W4W4NW3W5NW5NW6N6N7NW6N5N10
G16
N9
G15
2 days agoW13
G18
W13
G20
NW12
G19
W15
G20
N9N7N7NW6NW4N3NE4CalmNW4NW5NW5NW5CalmNW5N7N6NW5NW3NW5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.