Tuesday, October20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 6:45PM Tuesday October 20, 2020 7:29 AM EDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:39AMMoonset 8:42PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 405 Am Edt Tue Oct 20 2020
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning, then veering to the north after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202010201530;;785975 FZUS53 KDTX 200805 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 405 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-201530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 201043 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 643 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

AVIATION.

Approaching high pressure has brought and will continue to bring improved cig and vis trends across SE MI through the day. Periods of sunshine will be possible through thinly veiled mid and upper level clouds. Redevelopment of low level clouds will be possible later this afternoon given diurnal heating eliciting a cumulus response with the saturated surface conditions in place, along with northeast low level flow pulling additional moisture off of Lake Huron. Redevelopment of cloud cover would produce a SCT-BKN deck ranging between MVFR to low-end VFR. Otherwise, an approaching warm front will bring lowering cig trends tonight in addition to drizzle/light rain to all terminals, which will bring likely IFR and possible LIFR across SE MI. Additionally, given some weak instability aloft, some rumbles of thunder will be possible overnight. Wind direction will veer from NNE to SE following the passage of the warm front.

For DTW . Improving cig trends through the morning and early afternoon. Possible redevelopment of MVFR later this afternoon, with likely IFR to possible LIFR late tonight and overnight, tied to an approaching warm front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES.

* Moderate to ceilings aob 5 kft after 16Z, high for ceilings aob 5kt kft after 00Z.

* Low for ceiling aob 200 ft overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

DISCUSSION .

High pressure building across the northern Great Lakes brings dry and cool weather to SE Michigan today. Residual cloud cover from yesterday's system is expected to break up enough for sunshine at times during the morning into early afternoon before high clouds thicken again. Even a limited amount of daytime heating should still be able to offset the cooling effect of northerly surface wind shifting east by mid afternoon. High temperatures more firmly in the lower to mid 50s are reachable, still a few degrees below normal for mid October but an improvement over Monday that saw readings stuck in the 40s most locations.

Thickening high clouds during the afternoon are a precursor to the next low pressure system organizing in the Plains. This system sets up a moisture laden pattern of isentropic lift into lower Michigan tonight. A deep and strong SW low level jet reaches 40 to 50 kts in the 925 to 700 mb layer which surges a Gulf moisture supply northward into the region. The KDTX upper air climatology shows model forecasts of 850 mb dewpoint near the record high of 12C for October 20th and 21st, more than adequate for elevated instability capable of supporting a chance of ordinary thunderstorms mainly south of I-69. The upper jet and mid level short wave combine to enhance forcing for the rain pattern and also carry the surface low on a track to our west and north which swings the respectable cold front through the region by sunrise. Model soundings indicate a deep stable layer in the southerly flow ahead of the system followed by a well mixed surge of cold advection along and behind the front which could result in a couple hours of wind gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range into Wednesday morning.

Pacific high pressure building from the Plains into the Great Lakes brings dry weather and gradually diminishing west wind through Wednesday. Despite the frontal passage during the early morning, model guidance supports moderating temperatures with a run into the upper 50s and lower 60s likely across SE Michigan. This reflects the dry and mild Pacific origin of the air mass which is expected to bring a few hours of mostly sunny sky late morning through early afternoon before high clouds begin thickening again ahead of yet another low pressure system in the Plains. This is a larger and deeper surface low pressure pattern associated with a stronger upper level trough digging in over the Rockies. Development of this system leads to another round of deep and strong SW flow moisture transport and isentropic lift for a pattern of showers in the Great Lakes Wednesday night.

The deepening trough and sharp right entrance region of the downstream upper level jet results in an even farther west surface low track from the Midwest Thursday into northern Ontario by Friday. The primary weather factor during this time will be a substantial warming trend that carries afternoon highs well into the 70s across all of SE Michigan by Friday afternoon. The trailing cold front is projected to move through the region during the afternoon and evening with reasonable agreement on timing among the extended range model solutions. The change in air mass takes temperatures back down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for the weekend.

MARINE .

Light northerly flow will begin slowly veering this afternoon reaching a westerly flow by Wednesday and becoming gusty at times. This occurs as high pressure moves through the northern Lakes today followed by a low pressure system and cold front tracking through Lake Superior and lower Michigan by Wednesday morning. Quick progression of high and low pressure systems continue through the late week period bringing unsettled weather in terms of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Mild air is due in the region Thursday and Friday before a stronger cold front moves through the central Great Lakes by Friday night. Colder air settles in on north wind for the weekend.

HYDROLOGY .

Low pressure developing across the Midwest moves through the northern Great Lakes tonight sweeping showers and a few thunderstorms back across SE Michigan. Rainfall totals near 0.5 inch are expected with this activity before ending around sunrise Wednesday. Flooding potential is expected to be low and limited to just ponding of water on roads and in prone areas. This is followed by dry weather Wednesday and then another round of showers Wednesday night capable of an additional 0.5 inch of rain. The break in activity during Wednesday and the fast progression of showers Wednesday night further limits flooding potential.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . AM DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . DRC/BT HYDROLOGY . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi89 min N 11 G 14 42°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi49 min NNW 11 G 13 40°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi49 min N 4.1 G 8 39°F 1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi36 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast40°F32°F73%1025.8 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi54 minNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy37°F33°F87%1024.7 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi34 minN 010.00 miOvercast39°F35°F88%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------N3CalmCalmCalmE4CalmN5NW5N3CalmE5SE4CalmN5N5N5N6NW5N8N5N5
1 day agoS11S12S11
G18
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SW12NW16N10N9NW7W9W5W4W5W5W5W3NW5NW4CalmW3------
2 days agoSW5SW5SW7S6S8S9S10SE10S15S12
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G29
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.