Thursday, October1, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:17PM Thursday October 1, 2020 6:38 PM EDT (22:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 403 Pm Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers after midnight. A chance of waterspouts in the evening, then a slight chance of waterspouts after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of waterspouts in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202010020330;;656562 FZUS53 KDTX 012003 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 403 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-020330-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 011953 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

Mid afternoon radar trends indicate showers and thunderstorms burning quickly through available instability. Cellular coverage and the pulsy nature of stronger updrafts reflects the overall lower convective potential compared to yesterday. Slower storm motion as a function of the weaker wind profile has also played into the convective mode. Forcing from the upper level circulation and surface trough maintain activity having a gradually decreasing trend in coverage and intensity as surface based instability becomes exhausted by early evening.

The cold front helping to focus today's showers/storms moves through SE Michigan tonight. The colder air inbound post front takes low temperatures down into the mid and upper 30s while NW wind lingers at 5 to 10 knots through sunrise Friday. That wind speed is high enough to prevent frost development at interior locations where clouds have a chance of decreasing during the night. The typically colder regions of the Thumb are influenced by the additional warming effects of clouds and onshore wind direction off the warmer water of Lake Huron. The warming effect of the lake is also reflected in model soundings that show the boundary layer remaining well above freezing and capable of lake effect rain showers that linger through Friday morning. Inland locations experience dry weather but plenty of diurnal cumulus through Friday afternoon as high temperatures struggle to reach the lower and mid 50s.

Diffuse high pressure settles over lower Michigan Friday night while broadly cyclonic flow and cold air aloft remain in place. The wind and temperature pattern support model RH depictions of diurnal cumulus Friday afternoon lifting into meaningful coverage of mid level clouds Friday night. This is combined with thickening high clouds ahead of the next short wave to make the low temperature forecast and potential for frost difficult to evaluate. These cloud trends are definitely something to monitor before getting too aggressive with low temperatures and frost potential heading into Saturday morning.

Thickening high clouds occur ahead of the above mentioned short wave that continues approaching while surface high pressure departs eastward during Saturday. The system produces backing flow in the mid and upper levels that starts weak moisture transport during the day. Model plan view depictions of wind and theta-e suggest weak advection that may not be able to overcome dry air lingering in the low levels before evening. There is general agreement on the slower trend of saturation in QPF fields among today's mid range model solutions but it will be a close call. The upper level trough axis is still more over the Midwest than Great Lakes by Saturday night but is able to influence forcing with increased SW flow through the mid levels. The orientation of the mid level theta-e gradient also becomes more SW-NE while contracting through Sunday morning. This is a good sign of implied mid level Fgen downstream of the 500 mb trough to enhance the vertical motion response prior to arrival of the trough itself. The rapidly improved organization in these features is worthy of at least scattered to numerous coverage of showers late Saturday night through Sunday.

The short wave feature producing the wet weather to finish the weekend carries the larger scale trough axis eastward by Monday. The upper level ridge moving in from central Canada brings surface high pressure for improved weather and a gradual warming trend. Highs return back toward normal by Tuesday before the next front arrives for the mid week period.

MARINE.

Afternoon observations verify moderate north wind developing on the north end of Lake Huron as cold front settles through the central Great Lakes. Wind speed remains around 20kts or less during the night while the long fetch over Lake Huron leads to high waves around the Thumb shoreline. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect tonight and Friday for these conditions. The colder air mass settles over the Great Lakes and lasts through the weekend keeping conditions unsettled with the potential for rain showers and waterspouts in Lake Huron lingering into the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 122 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

AVIATION .

Similar afternoon compared to yesterday will unfold across the airspace as the region remains entrenched within a cool, cyclonic flow regime characterized by steep lapse rates, sufficient boundary layer moisture, and ample forcing aided by an approaching cold front boundary from the west. The result will be another afternoon into early evening of numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms, with thunderstorm coverage across the northern sites mainly before 21z, and the southern sites centered in the 19z-23z window. Small hail will continue to be a concern with any stronger convection, but a decreased wind field will lessen the gusty wind threat. Flying conditions will be variable ranging from low end VFR at times to low end MVFR in convection. Cold front looks to track through during the evening hours flipping westerly winds in the 10-15 knot range to the northwest at similar magnitudes, with fairly good push of dry air accompanying the front allowing for a decent clearing response in the wake of ending showers with loss of daytime heating. Exception may be for KPTK, KFNT, and KMBS, where a more northerly trajectory off Saginaw Bay may allow for MVFR stratocu to hang around through at least the first half of the night. Reinvigorated diurnal stratocu then redevelops to end the period during the day Friday.

For DTW . Thunderstorm confidence remains moderate, although timing is fairly high in the 19z-23z window. Trended a bit more optimistic with clearing with this issuance with surge of dry air in wake of cold front passage late evening into the overnight hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* Moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. Low tonight.

* Moderate in thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

MI . Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair . NONE.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.



DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . BT AVIATION . IRL

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi38 min NNW 9.9 G 15 53°F 1012.5 hPa (+2.0)
45163 35 mi38 min N 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi58 min NNW 12 G 14 52°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi58 min N 5.1 G 7 52°F 1013.2 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi45 minNW 1110.00 miLight Rain53°F43°F69%1013.6 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi43 minWNW 510.00 miLight Rain52°F44°F77%1012.9 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi43 minNNW 810.00 miLight Rain53°F48°F86%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6W15
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W9W10W7W7W7SW6SW7SW5SW7SW6SW5SW7SW8SW7W9W13
G22
SW6SW6NW13W5NW11
1 day agoSW7W9SW6SW7SW6SW5S5S4S7SW10SW10SW7SW10
G16
SW11SW7
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G20
SW12SW9S7W10NW7SW4S11
2 days agoSW6SW5S4SW5S6SW7SW6SW8SW7SW7SW5SW6SW5S6SW7SW9SW7SW9W7SW9W6W7SW6SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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