Wednesday, April1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 8:04PM Wednesday April 1, 2020 4:29 AM EDT (08:29 UTC) Moonrise 11:24AMMoonset 2:19AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 349 Am Edt Wed Apr 1 2020
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northwest in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northeast early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202004011515;;393586 FZUS53 KDTX 010749 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 349 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-011515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 010755 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

DISCUSSION.

One more grungy morning is in store for SE Michigan as an inverted trough departs the region early today. Low stratus persists as modeled soundings indicate a saturated layer up to 800mb with a continued moisture contribution from Lake Huron via light northeast flow. The trough may be sufficient to generate a few more sprinkles early on but main forcing/lift has departed the region. Clouds begin to scatter by the early afternoon for the Thumb and late afternoon or early evening for the rest of the region as a drier Canadian air mass moves in and ends the Lake Huron contribution. This forecast package pushes back the timing of clearing a bit as latest guidance suggests this dry air will have a harder time filling into the 800- 900mb layer over land. A diurnal heating component should keep a stratocumulus deck around a bit longer and convective depths may grow deep enough to support a few afternoon showers as well. Did keep highs on the lower side /upper 40s/ with the anticipation of clouds sticking around through peak surface heating hours.

Further clearing is on the way later this evening and tonight as ridging just upstream undergoes amplification in response to a Pacific wave digging into the northern Rockies. Deep layer subsidence/drying and surface pressure rises will commence by 00z. Lows tonight fall to the lower 30s - mid 30s Metro Detroit - given expected boundary layer decoupling and mostly clear skies. Sunny skies then follow for Thursday as the surface ridge dominates local conditions. 850mb temps hovering around 0C translate to highs rebounding to the mid 50s - cooler along the immediate Lake Huron shoreline with light northerly winds in place.

Benign weather continues through Friday as the ridge remains in place thanks to a pseudo-omega blocking pattern continuing with midlevel lows over Alberta and just off Cape Cod. High clouds may increase a bit on Friday if upper moisture ahead of the next front can traverse over the top of the ridge. Still, slightly higher 850mb temps give a good chance for highs in the upper 50s for most of the area.

Above average temps continue through the weekend and into next week with a split flow pattern keeping the mild air mass largely in place. Chance for showers Saturday and possibly into Sunday as a weakening cold front attempts to move in. With the parent low shearing across Manitoba, temperature advection and forcing locally will be relatively muted. Another chance for rain then arrives Tuesday into Wednesday as the next low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes.

MARINE.

Light northerly winds will dominate through the rest of this week as the region remains between a high in northern Quebec and a low tracking along through the southeastern US. Expect some ebb and flow between northerly, northwesterly, and northeasterly today as the previously mentioned systems slowly slide east resulting in slight changes in the predominate wind direction over the central Great Lakes. Thursday high pressure will build in from the west reinforcing northerly flow. Winds will remain light and slowly rotate to northeasterly Friday and eventually to southeasterly Saturday as the high begins to move east of the region.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 1215 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2020

AVIATION .

A subtle mechanism continues to lead to increased coverage of shower activity that is streaming into far Southeast Michigan from the east. Increased moisture advection at roughly 800mb or in the 3.5 to 6.5 kft agl layer has maintained moist adiabatic lapse rates which yields relatively high convective depths to increase. The saturated, deep mixed layer has been good for shower generation within persistent weakly cyclonic flow. Winds will remain light throughout the period. IFR cigs are still expected to develop later tonight, to low MVFR cig heights are expected through tonight with a diurnal rise in cig heights occurring midday Wednesday.

For DTW . Will maintain rain showers the first part of the period. Persistent stratus deck throughout the night, lifting and scattering eventually Wednesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through early Wednesday afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . NONE. Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

DISCUSSION . TF MARINE . KDK AVIATION . CB

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi90 min NE 14 G 16 38°F 1015.2 hPa (-0.4)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi50 min NE 8 G 8 37°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi50 min NNE 4.1 G 7 39°F 1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW13
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G25
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SW5
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G23
SW14
G21

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi37 minN 710.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1016.2 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi35 minN 57.00 miLight Rain37°F37°F100%1015.6 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi34 minNE 53.00 miFog/Mist40°F37°F91%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE10NE8NE8NE9NE11NE16NE11NE12NE13NE13NE14NE12NE12NE14NE11NE13NE11NE15NE14
G22
N11NE10NE8N7
1 day agoW15W15W16
G22
W13W13W11NW12NW14
G19
W10
G21
W11NW14NW13W14NW9NW11NW11N10N8N8NW7NW7NW5N6N5
2 days agoSE9S6SE7S11S9SW11SW30
G39
SW23
G37
SW17
G29
SW19
G30
SW20
G29
SW21
G39
SW19
G33
SW24
G34
SW23
G33
SW23
G38
SW21
G32
SW18
G29
SW16
G29
SW13
G25
SW16W16
G23
SW13SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.