Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Auburn, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:00PM Monday December 9, 2019 10:58 AM EST (15:58 UTC) Moonrise 3:42PMMoonset 5:00AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 943 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Areas of fog. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog in the evening. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers and rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201912092215;;093253 FZUS53 KDTX 091443 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 943 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-092215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Auburn, MI
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location: 43.58, -84     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 091053 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 553 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

AVIATION.

Timing lower CIGs and VSBYs with the passage of a low pressure system across northern lower MI this afternoon is the main challenge. The low level moisture has been slow to fill in across the area thus far outside a few patches of drizzle. The wedge of rain is on its way and looks to reach the Detroit area by 13Z. IFR conditions are still expected this afternoon for several hours as the low passes just to our north. Winds will veer from southwest to west this evening and northwest overnight as a pair of cold fronts sweep through. Drier air and elevated winds behind the front will allow CIGS to rise and VSBYs to improve.

For DTW . Expect cigs below 5kft through the forecast with rain overspreading the area by 13Z and persisting into mid afternoon. Southerly winds will swing to SW/W late in the forecast as low pressure moves east of the area.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES .

* High confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet through the forecast period.

* High confidence in precipitation falling as all rain.

* Low confidence in cigs aob 200 feet this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION. Issued at 403 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

DISCUSSION .

A broad region of rain showers over Indiana leading up to sunrise is set to spread over Lower Michigan during the morning. Onset is slightly delayed as deep isentropic lift and moisture transport combine with strong exit region upper level jet dynamics over the Ohio valley. The peak is now expected to be mid to late morning over SE Michigan as precipitable water increases to near 0.85 within the mature moisture axis. This is followed by a mid afternoon dry slot that reduces activity to drizzle mixed with fog as the surface low moves through northern Lower Michigan. Also notable is the mild air surging into the region expected to carry temperatures into the lower and mid 50s despite the widespread shower activity. This is supported by early morning readings already in the lower 50s as far north as Indianapolis prior to sunrise.

Scattered showers and widespread drizzle under the mid level dry slot by late afternoon fills in with an expanding area of rain showers along and ahead of the cold front this evening. Low level thermal fields in model data indicate this is more of a prefrontal trough helping to focus convergence on the first leg of decreasing temperatures. Model soundings show precipitation type holding firmly as rain showers during the evening. The primary cold front then moves in after midnight and after the bulk the larger scale moisture axis exits eastward. That being said, a burst of snow showers does look possible along the front as strong low level cold advection moves the thermal profile quickly into the DGZ with steep low level lapse rate. Guidance temperatures showing lows in the mid to upper 20s most locations to around 30 Detroit to the Ohio border all look on target.

Any snow shower activity supported by the front exits eastward before sunrise while the scenario transitions to pure lake effect during Tuesday morning. The mean low level wind field settles into a nearly due west direction which tends to favor the I-96/I-94 corridors for the greatest coverage of snow showers as the day unfolds. Model soundings still show convective depth averaging around 6 kft through the day which is sufficient for activity to reach SE Michigan although daytime boundary layer mixing likely disrupts any organized banding. Scattered/chance POPs are maintained for Tuesday into Tuesday night as a secondary surge of cold air arrives which carries temperatures down into the teens by sunrise Wednesday.

There remains a chance of snow shower, especially early Wednesday, as enough cold air arrives to hold temperatures in the 20s during the day. Lake effect potential suffers from a considerable amount of dry air and shallow convective depth before the center of high pressure arrives Wednesday night. High pressure accompanies the low level thermal trough and sets up this time period as the coldest in a quick stretch of below normal temperatures. Thickening high clouds will be needed to prevent low temperatures from reaching single digits by Thursday morning.

The late week period brings a gradual temperature recovery as high pressure exits to the Atlantic coast and the next low pressure system organizes over the Plains. This sets up increasing south wind supporting a modest temperature rebound for highs near 40 by Friday afternoon. Part of the warming trend is due to an impressive transition of the large scale upper level pattern back into a zonal configuration which is unstable in its own right and quickly leads to a new round of height falls over the Midwest to Gulf coast. The latest extended model runs suggest initial low pressure development over the Midwest which brings a chance of rain and snow to Lower Michigan before transitioning to the Atlantic coast during next weekend.

MARINE .

Relaxed pressure gradient has brought about lighter winds and lowered wave action which will continue through the morning hours as a warm front is reinforced across the Great Lakes. Increased wave action as a result of prolonged S/SSE flow is expected across southern to central Lake Huron with wave height generally confined between 5-6 ft, occasional waves up to 8 feet. Gusts are expected to increase throughout the afternoon around 20 knots, however, increased stability will from warmer air riding along the cooler water will hold gusts below threshold criteria. A low pressure system, responsible for the passage of the initial warm front, will travel across northern lower Michigan later this evening, eventually traveling across Quebec by Tuesday morning. Widespread rainfall is expected through the bulk of the day given warmer air across the region, before a strong cold front sweeps across the Great Lakes in response to the departing low pressure.

A transition from rain to snow will be possible behind the front early Tuesday morning. Increased mixing depths and instability from cold air advection will also quickly ramp up wind speeds over the open waters, especially across northern Lake Huron, where brief periods of low-end gales will be possible starting early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the development of snow squalls remains probable Tuesday morning through Wednesday given low-level westerly flow and instability over the lake, with Lake Huron down to Saginaw Bay being the most likely locations to experience squall activity. Expect drastic reductions to visibility with snow squall activity.

HYDROLOGY .

Rain showers spread over SE Michigan during the morning as mild air with high moisture content for this time of year fuels a cold front and low pressure system moving across the region. Rainfall totals approach a half inch overall before coverage diminishes mid to late afternoon. A transition to mixed rain and snow is possible if any precipitation lingers long enough after the cold front moves through tonight and Tuesday morning. The expected rainfall today could produce ponding of water in prone areas and small rises on area rivers.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. Lake Huron . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ422-442-443.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ421-441.

Lake St Clair . NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie . NONE.

AVIATION . DRK DISCUSSION . BT MARINE . AM/BT HYDROLOGY . BT

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 22 mi59 min SSE 15 G 17 41°F 1000.3 hPa (-3.8)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 39 mi55 min SE 18 G 20 43°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 55 mi79 min S 6 G 8 39°F 1002 hPa

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
MBS International Airport, MI5 mi66 minSSE 112.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist46°F43°F89%1000.9 hPa
Saginaw County H W Browne Airport, MI13 mi64 minSSE 115.00 miRain45°F42°F93%1001 hPa
Jack Barstow Airport, MI15 mi64 minSSE 75.00 miLight Rain45°F43°F95%1000 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMBS

Wind History from MBS (wind in knots)
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SW10SW7S7S6S6CalmS5NW3CalmCalmNE3E3S6S6S8S10S8S8S11
1 day agoSE7S8S7S7S8S8S8S9S8S8S7S9S10S10S8S8S10S11S11
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2 days agoNW11NW13NW12NW14
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NW10NW8NW11NW10NW7W5W5W6W5W4W3NW5CalmCalmCalmS4S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.