Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Reedsburg, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:31PM Sunday May 31, 2020 11:13 AM CDT (16:13 UTC) Moonrise 1:27PMMoonset 1:40AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Reedsburg, WI
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location: 43.58, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FXUS63 KMKX 311429 AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 929 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

UPDATE.

Clear skies are expected to persist through the morning hours. Some clouds will develop this afternoon as temperatures rise. The forecast is still on track for today.

MARINE.

High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan today. The high pressure will move southeast tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching low pressure. Winds will become southerly this evening and remain light through Monday. The southerly winds will be increasing Monday evening ahead of the incoming low pressure system.

PREV DISCUSSION. (Issued 648 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020)

UPDATE .

The forecast is on track for the upcoming day.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS) .

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for today and tonight. Other than some late morning and afternoon cumulus, skies will be mostly clear through the day today. Mid/high level clouds will increase from the west by later tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION . (Issued 350 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020)

SHORT TERM .

Today And Tonight . Forecast Confidence Is High.

High pressure will bring a very pleasant day to southern Wisconsin today, with only scattered afternoon cumulus disrupting the blue skies. Temps will be near normal away from Lake Michigan, and a few degrees below normal near the lake due to onshore winds.

Increasing moisture and warm advection are expected tonight, as the high begins to depart to the east and southerly low level flow develops. These conditions, along with increasing clouds later in the night, will keep temps from falling much more the second half of the night. So, lows will be several degrees milder than lows this morning.

Monday Through Monday Night . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models continue to be in good agreement with brining a period of focused warm air advection through the region during this time, along with a low level jet nose veering across the area Monday. There is some decent low level frontogenesis response with the warm frontal passage Monday afternoon, before moving northeast of the area Monday night. The main 500 mb shortwave trough passes north of the area Monday afternoon, where the best upward vertical motion should be located.

In addition, forecast soundings continue to show a decent cap developing in the afternoon and strengthening Monday night. Some decent elevated CAPE and effective shear Monday afternoon and night, but cap may limit areal coverage of showers and storms across the area. Kept lower end PoPs for showers and a few storms going for Monday into Monday night. Main risk for isolated large hail and gusty winds with storms should remain north of the area. Mild temperatures are expected, with dew points rising into the 60s Monday night.

Tuesday . Forecast Confidence Is High.

Area should remain capped for most of Tuesday, as a very warm and humid airmass moves into the area. 925 mb temperatures suggest highs in the upper 80s to around 90, even near the lake with westerly winds. Model Certainty suggests that these values are around or a little above the 90th percentile. However, am confident in these temperatures occurring, with at least partial sunshine and the expected 925 mb temperatures. Record highs are 90 at Milwaukee and 91 at Madison for Tuesday June 2, which may be reached if the forecast verifies.

Combination of these temperatures and dew points into the upper 60s should bring heat index values into the middle 90s in southern and western parts of the area.

LONG TERM .

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Models are suggesting the potential for a possible mesoscale convective system to move east southeast with a cold front into the area by later Tuesday night, perhaps lingering into Wednesday morning before the front slides south of the area. There is not much in the way of a 500 mb shortwave trough, but there is some upper divergence from the right rear quadrant of a 250 mb jet streak over the region.

There should be pretty good amounts of elevated CAPE and deep layer bulk shear over the area, so there is the potential for strong to severe storms occurring. Timing is not the best, but may not matter if this mesoscale convective system can get going and move into the area. SPC has a slight risk for severe storms in the western half of the area, with a marginal risk to the east, for Tuesday night. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main hazards. Also some heavy rainfall potential with high precipitable water values, though it looks like the system will move at a decent clip. Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will need to be monitored for this possible severe weather.

Wednesday Night Through Saturday . Forecast Confidence Is Medium.

Weak high pressure may then bring a period of quiet weather for the rest of Wednesday into Thursday, with mild but less humid conditions with some onshore winds.

More uncertainty with the rest of the period, which could have smaller chances for showers and storms at times, as a cold front slides south into the region. A warm front setting up to the west of the region by Saturday may bring chances for showers and storms, though it may be too far west to have much influence on our weather. Onshore winds should linger each day, with mild temperatures inland.

AVIATION(09Z TAF UPDATES) .

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for today and tonight. Other than some afternoon cumulus, skies will be mostly clear through the day today. Mid/high level clouds will increase from the west by later tonight.

MARINE .

High pressure centered over Lake Michigan this morning will head southeast tonight into Monday, ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure. Light winds today into tonight will be followed by increasing southerly winds on Monday. Winds and waves may approach Small Craft Advisory levels for the nearshore waters in the afternoon and evening. Lighter winds are then expected through mid-week.

MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. LM . None.

Update . Patterson Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine . DDV Monday THROUGH Saturday . Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Baraboo Wisconsin Dells Airport, WI13 mi19 minSW 710.00 miFair58°F43°F57%1028.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDLL

Wind History from DLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11
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N8NE7N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E8E5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE8S5S6W4
1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoNW5NW5W4NW3NW3N5NW3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW5NW5NW4NW5NW4NW10NW8NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.