Yuba, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Yuba, WI

May 27, 2024 8:03 AM CDT (13:03 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:26 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM
Moonrise 11:51 PM   Moonset 7:45 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Yuba, WI
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 271100 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 600 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Two More Rounds Of Precipitation Today & Tonight With Highest Storm Potential Later This Morning Into The Afternoon With Primary Hazards Of Small Hail & Strong Winds

- Decreasing, Slightly Below Normal Temperatures Through Midweek

- Warming Into The End Of The Week With A Drier Forecast Trending

DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Precipitation & Storm Chances Today:

Two more rounds of precipitation and storms on tap for today and tonight as two shortwaves advect across the Upper Mississippi River Valley along northwest flow. The initial low can be seen on upper level GOES water vapor imagery early this morning, closed from the Rocky Mountain West into North Dakota. This initial upper level low is expected to continue its southeasterly trajectory through the morning hours, eventually advecting a bowling ball of synoptic forcing through the forecast area along the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Ongoing precipitation ahead of this area of lower heights will reach southeast Minnesota early this morning and cross the Mississippi River Valley into the early afternoon hours.

Expected Impacts & Primary Hazards:

ACARS soundings show Cold Air Advection (CAA) along the northwest flow from the Northern Plains into Minneapolis-St Paul Int'l Airport. The CAA is steepening low level lapse rates early this morning which will provide slight instability locally as the low trudges southeast. Therefore, storm chances increase into the Upper Mississippi River Valley concurrent with overall moisture decreases. Current PWATs through the Northern Plains are pushing 1" as this decreasing trend will drop them to near 0.75" as they traverse the local area in southeast Minnesota later this morning. This narrow band of limited moisture will be slightly assisted by remnants of the easterly exiting low over the Great Lakes. Therefore, unlike Friday, heavy rain will be less of a concern as swollen rivers are lowering early this morning. HRRR maximum QPF does push 1.0" in spots, while PMM (Probability Matched Mean) remains less than 0.5". Besides the decrease in moisture, the transient nature of precipitation will also limit overall amounts. In summary, highest amounts could push 1" over a 6 hour window within the stronger storms that manage to for. Widespread amounts will most likely remain in the 0.25" to 0.5" range.

As the wave passes, SB and MUCAPE from 500 to 1000 J/kg will advect primarily from southeast Minnesota into northeast Iowa this afternoon. The concurrent bowling ball of mid level vorticity will provide lower level stretching as an 850mb jet potentially perks through central Iowa. While best deep layer shear lies to the southwest, resulting in Convective Allowing Models sustaining potential stronger storms, non-supercell Tornadoes (NSTs) cannot be ruled out locally. The normalized SPC NST parameter incorporates limited ingredients which alludes to the mesoscale nature of necessary forcing. Limiting factors, dependent on which high resolution Convective chose to interrogate, are placement of the surface boundary and resultant surface shear resulting in nebulous shear concurrent with an increasing off deck jet streak. Therefore while NSTs cannot be ruled out, necessary mesoscale ingredients such as surface shear from the frontal boundary or meso-gamma to beta outgoing cold pools, and lacking deep layer shear will be important to monitor this afternoon.

With the colder temperatures providing freezing levels near 5k ft, the primary hazard will be small to medium sized hail as well as strong winds. Limiting factors will be overall lack of CAPE and transient, pulse nature of any stronger storms. Again, better forcing and shear lie to the west and southwest so our western peripheral counties are best aligned with any hazards.
Overall, quite a conditional threat.

Second Round Of Precipitation Tonight Into Tuesday:

Subsequent precipitation chances will be tied to an appendage of the everlasting upper level low situated over southern Canada. Moisture remains low which will limit heavy rain potential. Long and skinny CAPE profiles result in very limited storm potential. Overall rainfall amounts in the hundreths expected.

Cooler Temperatures Through Midweek:

Otherwise, primary impacts will be cooling temperatures within the CAA regime. Slightly below normal temperatures with daytime highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s from Tuesday through Wednesday night. These slightly below normal temperatures will be short lived as the progressive pattern pushes an amplified upper level ridge through the Central Plains through midweek, quickly turning the tide to slightly above normal temperatures.

Warmer Through The End Of The Week, Trending Drier:

Resolving the resultant quasi-omega block has been a challenge between global models (GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/EPS/CMC/GEM) has been a challenge. A general slowing trend continues for intramodel dProg/dt. The GEM exhibits the most amplified ridge in the most recent run (27.00z), showing certainty (100% confidence) in mid level heights greater than 576 dam enveloping Wisconsin into Friday.
Weakest, most transient model continues to be the GEFS, keeping certainty for the same aforementioned parameter as far north as the IA/MN/WI border. As a result, discrepancies surround precipitation confidence through Friday as well as temperatures. Although, dProg/dt for the GEFS has trended and abated in the most recent run for 100% confidence. Instead of suggesting definite probabilities for greater than 0.01" of 24 hour precipitation the GEFS breaks certainty both south and north of the forecast area during the late morning hours on Friday. As expected, the more amplified ridge in the EPS and GEM abate confidence for 0.01" until late afternoon. Similarly, confidence is slightly higher in the EPS and GEM for slightly above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions overnight are expected to continue through Monday afternoon. As a system approaches from the NW Monday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Went with a prob30 at RST and LSE for afternoon thunderstorms.
Where these thunderstorms occur, will likely see MVFR conditions during the rain. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 549 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Initial VFR this morning will become MVFR/IFR through the morning hours as storms move from northwest to southeast.
Initial impacts expected to reach southeast Minnesota near 27.15Z. MVFR expected with TS chances increasing from northwest to southeast. Storm and rain chances are quick hitting allowing flight restrictions to depart quickly this evening.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.




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La Crosse, WI,




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